Where are Canola Pricing going in the next year? - Page 3

saskatcheman · 01-30-2012, 10:11 AM

China To Import More Canadian Canola After Indian Meal Ban
China will boost imports of canola and canola from Canada to maintain supplies of the feed ingredient, traders said on Monday, after Beijing imposed a ban on Indian meal found to have been tainted with a toxic chemical, says a story from India's The Economic Times.
Traders said cargoes of Indian rapeseed meal loaded after Jan 1 would be denied entry while both countries work to resolve the quality issue.
China imposed the ban after some Indian meal cargoes were found to have been contaminated with the dye malachite green last year, threatening imports that traders said were worth $161 million in 2011. Read more here

jdinsk · 01-30-2012, 05:22 PM

Drew's daily weather forecast is on a local radio station here. his forecasts last summer were almost identical to what enviroment canada was saying. then again mabe they were just copying Drew. i dont have much faith in anybodys forecast any longer than mabe 3 days. just a bunch of geussing

gm · 01-30-2012, 09:38 PM

Here is my prediction for canola for the next 12 months. It will go up some and then it also will go down some, then if the weather conditions are just so, it will crash, after that some one will say there really is not much canola and it will sky rocket.

In order to market your canola properly, you need to know your costs of growing it

, you need to know how much you will harvest based on a normal year

. In other words look at your long term (10 yrs) yields

and confidently forward sell up to 1/3 of that. A look at your crop insurance numbers will help you sleep at night.

None of this will matter if you where able to buy land for $500/ac

five years ago and now you are willing to pay $2000

or if rent used to be $30-40/ac and now it's $65-80/ac. All this on land where the long term average is 22 bu/ac for canola and 30 bu/ac for wheat

.

That's just my opinion, you can do with it whatever you want

.

WD06 · 01-31-2012, 01:53 AM

Gotta remember, when you are watching these prices, don't let this happen to you

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net...18994848_n.jpg

gm · 01-31-2012, 03:50 AM

Nice graph WD, I myself have sold between panic and hope. It wasn't much fun.

**Don Boles** · 01-31-2012, 09:07 AM

The Simpsons - Enron's Ride of Broken Dreams. - YouTube

Mongoheadmonster · 01-31-2012, 02:31 PM

Given the state of economies throughout the world are in not so good of shape, and the fact that China plays games to keep commodities cheap for themselves to buy, and rain in South America improving bean outlook .....I don't think we will see $15 canola like everyone wants (IMO). I do think however, that we could hit $12 as crops "should" start to fight for acres as we get closer to seeding (I hope). My advice is to sell small amounts (20-80 tonnes here and there) in the little rallies instead of waiting for the "Hail Mary" that may never happen.

z203 · 02-25-2012, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mongoheadmonster

Given the state of economies throughout the world are in not so good of shape, and the fact that China plays games to keep commodities cheap for themselves to buy, and rain in South America improving bean outlook .....I don't think we will see $15 canola like everyone wants (IMO). I do think however, that we could hit $12 as crops "should" start to fight for acres as we get closer to seeding (I hope). My advice is to sell small amounts (20-80 tonnes here and there) in the little rallies instead of waiting for the "Hail Mary" that may never happen.

x2 how wrong can you go at $12/bu canola ?

clb · 02-29-2012, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lcarduner

Things to watch in the world:

South American weather and crops
Corn prices and the USA Gov'ts Ethanol programs
Soybeans and their genetics for a healthy oil soybean

Farmtech speakers say 12 is all the money for old crop, 11 for new crop. Greg Kostal is firm in his believe in the next 18 months we will see 9 dollar Generic canola.

Why don't we bump this back to the top of the active topics list!

Do the experts have any more words of wisdom for us....

. I wonder how many of these guys work for Viterra on the side. I mean there have to be some guys out there that believe what these experts say. And if they can grab some cheap canola before a major rally why not.....

01-30-2012, 09:38 PM	#23 (permalink)
gm Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Manitoba Posts: 307	Here is my prediction for canola for the next 12 months. It will go up some and then it also will go down some, then if the weather conditions are just so, it will crash, after that some one will say there really is not much canola and it will sky rocket. In order to market your canola properly, you need to know your costs of growing it , you need to know how much you will harvest based on a normal year. In other words look at your long term (10 yrs) yields and confidently forward sell up to 1/3 of that. A look at your crop insurance numbers will help you sleep at night. None of this will matter if you where able to buy land for $500/ac five years ago and now you are willing to pay $2000 or if rent used to be $30-40/ac and now it's $65-80/ac. All this on land where the long term average is 22 bu/ac for canola and 30 bu/ac for wheat. That's just my opinion, you can do with it whatever you want.

01-30-2012, 10:11 AM	#21 (permalink)
saskatcheman Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: East Central Saskatchewan Posts: 20	China To Import More Canadian Canola After Indian Meal Ban China will boost imports of canola and canola from Canada to maintain supplies of the feed ingredient, traders said on Monday, after Beijing imposed a ban on Indian meal found to have been tainted with a toxic chemical, says a story from India's The Economic Times. Traders said cargoes of Indian rapeseed meal loaded after Jan 1 would be denied entry while both countries work to resolve the quality issue. China imposed the ban after some Indian meal cargoes were found to have been contaminated with the dye malachite green last year, threatening imports that traders said were worth $161 million in 2011. Read more here

01-30-2012, 05:22 PM	#22 (permalink)
jdinsk Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: s.e. Sk Posts: 1,057	Drew's daily weather forecast is on a local radio station here. his forecasts last summer were almost identical to what enviroment canada was saying. then again mabe they were just copying Drew. i dont have much faith in anybodys forecast any longer than mabe 3 days. just a bunch of geussing

01-31-2012, 01:53 AM	#24 (permalink)
WD06 Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Lanigan, Saskatchewan Posts: 30	Gotta remember, when you are watching these prices, don't let this happen to you https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net...18994848_n.jpg

01-31-2012, 03:50 AM	#25 (permalink)
gm Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Manitoba Posts: 307	Nice graph WD, I myself have sold between panic and hope. It wasn't much fun.

01-31-2012, 02:31 PM	#27 (permalink)
Mongoheadmonster Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: North East Saskatchewan Posts: 145	Given the state of economies throughout the world are in not so good of shape, and the fact that China plays games to keep commodities cheap for themselves to buy, and rain in South America improving bean outlook .....I don't think we will see $15 canola like everyone wants (IMO). I do think however, that we could hit $12 as crops "should" start to fight for acres as we get closer to seeding (I hope). My advice is to sell small amounts (20-80 tonnes here and there) in the little rallies instead of waiting for the "Hail Mary" that may never happen.

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