Next Big 2019 Western Canadian Crop Issue? - Page 2 - The Combine Forum
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post #11 of 45 (permalink) Old 07-15-2019, 05:47 PM
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Not just a Canada thing, this crop is 2 weeks behind as well here pushing pollination back into extreme heat conditions which doesn't help. Corn is actually catching up, beans are what they are. Our next big issue is lack of rain, hot and dry the last 10 days and the 8-10 is calling for the same. With too much excessive rain the roots have not had to chase moisture, they are shallow and going to burn up.
Cptusa, from what you see and hear about in the mid west is there any chance soybean or corn futures will see any significant jump in price. IS 10 dollar beans on the Nov. Chicago board of trade possible. Manitoba is such a small player when it comes to beans, our crop doesn't really matter but its sometimes frustrating hearing about CROP troubles down south when really its just some whining! Is it really that bad down their, so far the bump in prices is not really significant. Where is all the pre plant acres they were talking about. Market doesn't reflect that aspect yet. Also what type of heat unit beans do you grow. I grow 2375 heat units and I hope that will avoid an early September frost. We are also 8-10 days behind last year pace.

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post #12 of 45 (permalink) Old 07-15-2019, 07:47 PM
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I'm not too concerned with our corn sure its later than last year but last year was an anomaly. Kinda like when you do averages you throw out the high and low. With this moisture and heat it might make up time.

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post #13 of 45 (permalink) Old 07-15-2019, 08:35 PM
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Cptusa, from what you see and hear about in the mid west is there any chance soybean or corn futures will see any significant jump in price. IS 10 dollar beans on the Nov. Chicago board of trade possible. Manitoba is such a small player when it comes to beans, our crop doesn't really matter but its sometimes frustrating hearing about CROP troubles down south when really its just some whining! Is it really that bad down their, so far the bump in prices is not really significant. Where is all the pre plant acres they were talking about. Market doesn't reflect that aspect yet. Also what type of heat unit beans do you grow. I grow 2375 heat units and I hope that will avoid an early September frost. We are also 8-10 days behind last year pace.
Oh baby that is a loaded question! Here is my thoughts on this crop, starting with corn because to get to my thoughts on beans I must go through corn first.

Corn: This crop is crap. USDA knows this crop is crap, and not a small area, a significant portion of the corn belt is/was/will be in trouble. My immediate area is one of the better spots. The corn was planted in crap conditions, cold and wet, plant in the dust bins will bust- plant in the mud crop is a dud. Now that we are tasseling the sins of planting are really showing, I have yet to see a field tassel evenly. We will pollinate in hot and dry conditions which will not help, roots are shallow and this crop can not take an extended dry period.

The USDA claims that we planted 91.7 million acres of corn, at the time of the survey that was considered 83% complete meaning that we intended to plant 110 million acres of corn, just short of 17 million acres over the largest planted corn crop ever, umm... no. They have dropped 10 bpa of the yield down to 166 for a national average, still to high when the good areas are looking at a 200-230 bpa crop. They have accounted for absolutely no prevent plant acres which could be as high a 10 million acres. So the can is kicked down the road, planted acres mean squat now its all about harvested acres at which point the USDA will have to address the elephant (more like mammoth) in the room. Probably looking at 80-85 million harvested, maybe. That still leaves us with a plus 13 billion bushel crop, assuming 166 bpa, which will not happen. There is a good chance we will see $5.25-5.75 board price corn, though it may be January. Old crop corn is tighter than reported as well, processors bidding +15 basis open 7 days a week.

Beans get a bit more complicated. Corn acres had to come from somewhere, planted bean acres were cut to 83 million, which my gut feeling is low. USDA has to control the prices so they are not hit with a run away market like in 2012. Soybean demand has tanked, corn is off slightly though not much. I think a little paper acre shift in acres occurred to keep corn price under control and let bean price rise and still be below levels needed. Our spring bean price set in February for Nov futures is $9.54, harvest price for Nov futures is tracked through Oct, they aren't going to let it go too far above the $9.54.

The trade situation with China is obviously not helping the bean price though you are an idiot if you don't think USA beans are floating to China through South America, exports to Argentina are up +350%. The China trade war will not end until after election 2020. They have no reason to buy a bunch of our beans when over half their swine herd has died. They will hold out and hope for a Trump defeat in 2020 and get what they want, the USA to bend over again.

So the short answer to your questions are $10 Nov futures on beans, unlikely. Is the USA crop as bad as it sounds, yes. And the maturity for the beans I plant are 2.0-2.8, I do not know how that equates to GDU's.

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post #14 of 45 (permalink) Old 07-15-2019, 08:57 PM
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Oh baby that is a loaded question! Here is my thoughts on this crop, starting with corn because to get to my thoughts on beans I must go through corn first.

Corn: This crop is crap. USDA knows this crop is crap, and not a small area, a significant portion of the corn belt is/was/will be in trouble. My immediate area is one of the better spots. The corn was planted in crap conditions, cold and wet, plant in the dust bins will bust- plant in the mud crop is a dud. Now that we are tasseling the sins of planting are really showing, I have yet to see a field tassel evenly. We will pollinate in hot and dry conditions which will not help, roots are shallow and this crop can not take an extended dry period.

The USDA claims that we planted 91.7 million acres of corn, at the time of the survey that was considered 83% complete meaning that we intended to plant 110 million acres of corn, just short of 17 million acres over the largest planted corn crop ever, umm... no. They have dropped 10 bpa of the yield down to 166 for a national average, still to high when the good areas are looking at a 200-230 bpa crop. They have accounted for absolutely no prevent plant acres which could be as high a 10 million acres. So the can is kicked down the road, planted acres mean squat now its all about harvested acres at which point the USDA will have to address the elephant (more like mammoth) in the room. Probably looking at 80-85 million harvested, maybe. That still leaves us with a plus 13 billion bushel crop, assuming 166 bpa, which will not happen. There is a good chance we will see $5.25-5.75 board price corn, though it may be January. Old crop corn is tighter than reported as well, processors bidding +15 basis open 7 days a week.

Beans get a bit more complicated. Corn acres had to come from somewhere, planted bean acres were cut to 83 million, which my gut feeling is low. USDA has to control the prices so they are not hit with a run away market like in 2012. Soybean demand has tanked, corn is off slightly though not much. I think a little paper acre shift in acres occurred to keep corn price under control and let bean price rise and still be below levels needed. Our spring bean price set in February for Nov futures is $9.54, harvest price for Nov futures is tracked through Oct, they aren't going to let it go too far above the $9.54.

The trade situation with China is obviously not helping the bean price though you are an idiot if you don't think USA beans are floating to China through South America, exports to Argentina are up +350%. The China trade war will not end until after election 2020. They have no reason to buy a bunch of our beans when over half their swine herd has died. They will hold out and hope for a Trump defeat in 2020 and get what they want, the USA to bend over again.

So the short answer to your questions are $10 Nov futures on beans, unlikely. Is the USA crop as bad as it sounds, yes. And the maturity for the beans I plant are 2.0-2.8, I do not know how that equates to GDU's.
Thanks good information, means more coming from a farmer! hope your crop finishes well.
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post #15 of 45 (permalink) Old 07-15-2019, 08:58 PM
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I think Canadians soybeans are 00. Or 000. Can some one correct me if I’m wrong. Or 2300 to 2375 heat units or a bit more.
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post #16 of 45 (permalink) Old 07-15-2019, 09:45 PM Thread Starter
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Knee high by the 14th of July still rhymes, but even for the silage corn out here(and that is the best of it) think this could get really adjusted. Even though you notice it more on corn, know that everything is that far behind just basis lack of heat units. If you could get by this "little" issue have to say that crop looks fantastic. However, if we get the heat that we need; with the moisture that in air there will be hail storms every night somewhere and good one of these in 2 wks could be best financial outcome by far.
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post #17 of 45 (permalink) Old 07-17-2019, 08:17 PM
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I know thread is the next issue, but this one is not going away. or/and china has just admitted it is about the china executive.

If the U.S. can not selling grain to china, are we not screwed, for canola sale? who's selling 2019 crop?

It seems the same story as BSE, that being "it will work itself out, quickly, don't worry" ,

or like cptusa says, will be floated through Australia? with all the satellites, they should be able to track ships.
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post #18 of 45 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 01:38 AM
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India's monsoon was off to a bit of a slow start but is looking like it will put enough water down for them to have an average or better crop barring any other weather difficulties. not great news for everyone else's pulse pricing.
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post #19 of 45 (permalink) Old 08-07-2019, 11:37 PM
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Getting a little chilly this evening so I went for a sweater and checked the forecast, little early for the F word!

At least there is some showers in there. Probably will be wrong on both.

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post #20 of 45 (permalink) Old 08-08-2019, 01:22 AM
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Getting a little chilly this evening so I went for a sweater and checked the forecast, little early for the F word!

At least there is some showers in there. Probably will be wrong on both.

mate thats our winter pattern your showing

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