Crop progress 2019? - The Combine Forum
 60Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #1 of 106 (permalink) Old 05-19-2019, 10:16 AM Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
cptusa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: east central IA
Posts: 4,308
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Quoted: 1450 Post(s)
Barn
Crop progress 2019?

So with the majority of the USA off to a cold, wet, slow, delayed, pathetic start ow do the crop conditions/progress look in your specific area?

Here its been hit and miss on rain, saturated ground puts you out of the field for a few days with a quarter inch of rain. Many still planting corn that would normally have been in the ground a month ago. A fair amount of what is planted is having emergence issues. There are a ton of soybeans to get planted yet. This cop is majorly stressed the top end of the yield is gone. From what we hear is we are is we are in one of the better areas.

Realistically looking like a national yield of 150-160 is in play instead of the trend line 176 they are projecting. Also realistically looking like 2-3 million acres less and potentially up to 5 million acres less corn to be planted than initially projected.

Next 2 weeks looks wet yet, things can turn quick as we all know but as of now this country is on the cusp of a short crop.


Don't blame the baker when the butcher bakes the bread.
cptusa is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 106 (permalink) Old 05-19-2019, 10:36 AM
Senior Member
 
kevlar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: central manitoba
Posts: 2,788
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Quoted: 870 Post(s)
Slow, very, very slow. Still getting frost every few nights. We have nothing up yet, and some has been in the ground for close to 3 weeks. There is decent moisture to get things started, just too cold. Took yesterday and today off, doing canola now so don't know if we want it all in at the same time, only have 3-4 days left. Trees didn't start to green up until about 5 days ago, but have come to a stand still again because of the cold. Had a couple tenths of rain a few days ago, but that has been the only rain so far this year. Haven't sprayed a thing yet because no weeds even growing.


Only had to use the A/C one day this year, but turns out it wasn't working! Had maybe 3 days all spring above 20 degrees. By the looks of the forecast, we should be done before we need to get the A/C fixed.

whtbaron and w-mFarms like this.

It's easy enough to be pleasant, when life goes by like a song. But the man worth while, is the man with a smile, when everything goes dead wrong!
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

Last edited by kevlar; 05-19-2019 at 10:40 AM.
kevlar is online now  
post #3 of 106 (permalink) Old 05-19-2019, 10:46 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Dubovyy, Russian Federation
Posts: 3,298
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 1075 Post(s)
On of the marketing letters I read suggested if it gets late enough you can elect to not seed as potential yield will drop through costs or insurance coverage any ways?

That was the gist of it any ways, but it sounded like a large block might be headed that way.

Edit: (U.S) corn acres
joesixpack is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #4 of 106 (permalink) Old 05-19-2019, 10:51 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 866
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 122 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevlar View Post
Slow, very, very slow. Still getting frost every few nights. We have nothing up yet, and some has been in the ground for close to 3 weeks. There is decent moisture to get things started, just too cold. Took yesterday and today off, doing canola now so don't know if we want it all in at the same time, only have 3-4 days left. Trees didn't start to green up until about 5 days ago, but have come to a stand still again because of the cold. Had a couple tenths of rain a few days ago, but that has been the only rain so far this year. Haven't sprayed a thing yet because no weeds even growing.


Only had to use the A/C one day this year, but turns out it wasn't working! Had maybe 3 days all spring above 20 degrees. By the looks of the forecast, we should be done before we need to get the A/C fixed.
our wheat is up and oats too looking nice but we sowed it deep, took forever to come up.
soys and canola are hit and miss with the dry soil we have.

this is funny, me and the old aggie group have a snapchat group and everyone in there had issues this year with their ac not working, luckily I topped mine off in spring because it was low somehow, than dad grabbed the john deere and wanted to roll 1 field on that one hot day and 2 way radio's his ac isn't working, went out to field and topped it off. I'm thinking the cold winter made some freeon leak away causing the ac's not to work.

I feel bad for the guys down south struggling to get the crop in, we've been there many times as far as 2011 we're lots of fields didn't get sowed and half the crop had the canola floated on. Don't ever wanna do that again, its just like throwing money at strippers, sure it feels like doing the right thing but in the end you go home like a mess and out quite a bit of money.
this year been one of the easiest springs we've ever seen, besides seeding in the dry dirt and deciding how deep to go with the seed.
w-mFarms is offline  
post #5 of 106 (permalink) Old 05-19-2019, 11:25 AM
Senior Member
 
gleaner l's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Cobden,Ontario,Canada
Posts: 291
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 36 Post(s)
Unless you have some sandy ground, basically nothing done around here. Those with livestock are running out of manure storage, hay fields are very poor to completely dead. Very little winter wheat has survived.
Everything seems to be a month late. Trees are doing nothing, even the dandelions aren't blooming.
An old timer told me 7 weeks ago it would be a very late year because the cycle of the moon is away off of the months of the calendar this year. I should listen more to him, he's always telling me stuff like this and he seems to always be right.
Hope it turns soon, insurance planting dates are fast approaching.
gleaner l is offline  
post #6 of 106 (permalink) Old 05-19-2019, 12:01 PM Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
cptusa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: east central IA
Posts: 4,308
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Quoted: 1450 Post(s)
Barn
Quote:
Originally Posted by joesixpack View Post
On of the marketing letters I read suggested if it gets late enough you can elect to not seed as potential yield will drop through costs or insurance coverage any ways?

That was the gist of it any ways, but it sounded like a large block might be headed that way.

Edit: (U.S) corn acres
I will not be doing prevent plant and never have yet but here is my understanding of it, all figures are close but may not be 100% accurate.

Spring prices are $4.00 corn and $9.54 soybeans.

Assuming a guaranteed yield of 200 bpa corn and 55 bpa soybeans at 85% insurance level. Prevent plant is 55% of gurantee.

Prevented plant corn: 200x$4x85%=$680x55%= $374 PP payment.

Planted beans instead: 55x$9.54x85%=$446 guarantee.

$446-374= $72 advantage to plant beans, however, input costs have to come out of that so you are looking at $50 seed costs and $35 chemical cost so the bean advantage drops to $72-$50-$35= ($13)/acre and you still have expense to put crop in and harvest.

Those numbers start making PP a bit more attractive.
brazil08 likes this.

Don't blame the baker when the butcher bakes the bread.
cptusa is offline  
post #7 of 106 (permalink) Old 05-19-2019, 12:29 PM
Senior Member
 
jazz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: S. Sask
Posts: 2,128
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 842 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by cptusa View Post
Those numbers start making PP a bit more attractive.
With all respect cpt, those numbers are fantasy to us up here in Canada.

For Canada, most crops are hovering marginally above their cost of production with our main money maker in the toilet. We don't have a weather issue (yet) but one could be brewing. Short moisture in a lot of areas.

The cold dry start could create two scenarios. Delayed season if we get some rainfall shortly, or a drought fuelled disaster. I worked with a toque on yesterday.
jazz is offline  
post #8 of 106 (permalink) Old 05-19-2019, 01:17 PM
HI!
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Three Hills/Trochu, Alberta, Canada
Posts: 1,954
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Quoted: 4541 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by cptusa View Post
I will not be doing prevent plant and never have yet but here is my understanding of it, all figures are close but may not be 100% accurate.

Spring prices are $4.00 corn and $9.54 soybeans.

Assuming a guaranteed yield of 200 bpa corn and 55 bpa soybeans at 85% insurance level. Prevent plant is 55% of gurantee.

Prevented plant corn: 200x$4x85%=$680x55%= $374 PP payment.

Planted beans instead: 55x$9.54x85%=$446 guarantee.

$446-374= $72 advantage to plant beans, however, input costs have to come out of that so you are looking at $50 seed costs and $35 chemical cost so the bean advantage drops to $72-$50-$35= ($13)/acre and you still have expense to put crop in and harvest.
So, as long as it is a legit canít plant youíd make more prevent plant as opposed to a crop insurance claimed short or lost planted crop?
Or Iím I interpreting this wrong?
Don Boles is offline  
post #9 of 106 (permalink) Old 05-19-2019, 01:29 PM
Senior Member
 
meritmat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: SE Alberta
Posts: 2,154
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 400 Post(s)
Need rain
Partners and KpprCrk like this.

_________________________
Hard Times Create Strong Men
Strong Men Create Good Times
Good Times Create Week Men
Week Men Create Hard Times
meritmat is offline  
post #10 of 106 (permalink) Old 05-19-2019, 01:37 PM
Senior Member
 
SWFarmService's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Regent, SW North Dakota
Posts: 9,686
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Quoted: 2670 Post(s)
Its interesting here, some guys are actually done, I'm not one of them and of all of its that's left there is only a likelyhood that qtrs could not be seeded.

Canola is going to be really lucky if it makes it through this. Most had been laying in the ground for 2 weeks plus before it came out of the dirt.

I chose to leave the planter in the shed and I'm glad I did, right now for the corn planted with the 6 days of high temps and switch to snow it will likely be growing down rather than up heading towards warm dirt. That never ends pretty.

2 weeks of rain and lots of freezing temps in the forecast. I really dont know what to think! But this is definitely not normal!

brazil08 likes this.

God Bless America
SWFarmService is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the The Combine Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in













Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Check this out for a laugh or two, actually, hundreds now! Don Boles Other / Off Topic 1486 06-02-2019 10:53 AM
Does Auto Crop Flow need Cruise Pilot to work properly? Oregon_Farmer Claas / Lexion 9 03-19-2019 08:39 PM
Crop Insurance vs Hail Insurance jazz Crop Production 39 03-09-2019 08:51 AM
Re: A-C SP-40 All Crop self-propelled combine combiness Antique Machinery 9 12-15-2015 10:08 AM
Crop progress diggora Planting & Tillage 4 09-16-2012 04:45 PM

Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome