How about a thread about marketing? - Page 12 - The Combine Forum
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post #111 of 116 (permalink) Old 12-28-2018, 08:51 AM
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Yes. Anyone who is adapted does that. That doesn't change that having complete transparency helps where and when to set your targets amd shop for the best basis + discount schedule.

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post #112 of 116 (permalink) Old 12-28-2018, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by joesixpack View Post
We haven’t taken a posted price in years. Use targets! Even when we take a basis we negotiate it!
Me too, but given the trajectory of posted cash bids the elevator companies are protecting somebody is being had! I am not convinced that helps the other guys like us when they get used to high-margin grain purchases either.

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post #113 of 116 (permalink) Old 12-28-2018, 11:34 AM
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I always feel when they accept a target, could have I got more !?
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post #114 of 116 (permalink) Old 12-28-2018, 11:56 AM
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We used to subscribe to a large market advisory company. Something that has stuck with me from that was I heard the president of that company say on more than one occasion at meetings, “... always remember, a grain companies price special is usually not special at all.”
To me that statement is flat out wrong. In today’s environment of posted bids and smart phones I think price specials are great. For me, a sale is done on a “price special” the majority of the time.
If a grain company needs to fill a train or whatever and there aren’t enough targets to pick to meet requirements they spike their bid to fill that train. When that train is filled bid typically sags back down. Now the market knows what price it takes to get things moving, that does not mean the market is on its way past that level.
I just could never understand that statement.
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post #115 of 116 (permalink) Old 12-28-2018, 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by bjtjjl View Post
I always feel when they accept a target, could have I got more !?
That train of thought will hurt your marketing as you are always waiting for the top price. If the price is good, sell. If the price is bad, try to not sell. Always hope the price will go up. Then sell more grain or contract a safe margin of next years crop. Know your financial position. I keep it that simple.

If you are thinking the price is bad, it usually is. If you start to think the price doesn't look so bad at the moment. I would almost expect it to drop back to that I'll wait price. In my 7 years of farming I have gotten in the top 10% of prices every year for the majority of my grains with that simple train of thought. Trust me, I wasn't trying to hit that top price. I was hoping the price would keep going up.

Never be certain prices will take off on a bull run for dollars up. Just because it did that one time you better not forget all the times it did not. This idea hurts more people in marketing than anything I have seen. I just watched a land lords wheat sell for around $5.50 US. I sold my share of that wheat for around $10 US, a few years ago. Did not sell durum one year for $8 because that land lord did not want to sell and was certain it would go to $12. Sold it for $4.75 because I had to. His is still in the bin and he is certain he will get $8 in the next 5 years. I hope he does!
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post #116 of 116 (permalink) Old 12-28-2018, 01:35 PM
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My area every elevator posts live pricing that moves with the market, less a fixed basis that is known. Basis will change once a day and sometimes doesn't for weeks. Elevators here make money on pushing grain around, not selling it for a better price then they bought from the farmer (risk they don't want to carry). They sell it for contract and get paid through basis levels/drying/shrink/dockage/blending/protein premium differences. Basis covers their overhead/shipping/profit. Definitely know when they are short bushels to cover overhead for the year, because they are calling looking for crops. If you are in the good old boys club they'll let you know if they get a call from a processor for all protein bid/etc or premium of some sort.
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