How about a thread about marketing? - Page 3 - The Combine Forum
 89Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #21 of 116 (permalink) Old 03-16-2018, 12:16 PM
Senior Member
 
cptusa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: east central IA
Posts: 4,455
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Quoted: 1508 Post(s)
Barn
Quote:
Originally Posted by SWMan View Post

I would like to get some opinions on that from the seasoned corn growers.
Just like any crop, figure your break even, set a profit margin and go!

I've been using hedge to arrive contracts and its been working out great for me, delivered some at $3.86 in January when cash price was around $3.40. Usually can roll the contract to the next month and pick up some money You just have to be sure you have the bushels to cover the contract, guys got caught 15 years or so ago when the market went the wrong way on them.

torriem likes this.

Don't blame the baker when the butcher bakes the bread.
cptusa is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #22 of 116 (permalink) Old 03-16-2018, 12:18 PM
Senior Member
 
SWMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Killarney, MB
Posts: 7,847
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Quoted: 2881 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Boles View Post
Because, nobody, for any length of time can master marketing, no matter how long studied nor practised.
But you can do better and a little effort is most often well rewarded. Just shopping samples around or calling a few buyers pays off, and that has nothing to do with timing. Basic knowledge of historical basis levels and some charting can really help but it takes effort. Hardest part is removing the emotion from marketing.


AN ERROR DOESN'T BECOME A MISTAKE UNTIL YOU REFUSE TO CORRECT IT
Orlando A. Battista
SWMan is offline  
post #23 of 116 (permalink) Old 03-16-2018, 12:22 PM
HI!
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Three Hills/Trochu, Alberta, Canada
Posts: 2,378
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Quoted: 4675 Post(s)
All true but the overall fact remains, 2/3ís of the crop is sold in the bottom 1/3 of the market.
Don Boles is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #24 of 116 (permalink) Old 03-16-2018, 12:27 PM
Senior Member
 
SWMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Killarney, MB
Posts: 7,847
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Quoted: 2881 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Boles View Post
All true but the overall fact remains, 2/3ís of the crop is sold in the bottom 1/3 of the market.
Then there should be some solid interest in this thread then, because there has already been some pretty good advice given. That's a stat nobody should be happy with and should be priority #1 on any farm IMO.

AN ERROR DOESN'T BECOME A MISTAKE UNTIL YOU REFUSE TO CORRECT IT
Orlando A. Battista
SWMan is offline  
post #25 of 116 (permalink) Old 03-16-2018, 12:29 PM Thread Starter
jvw
Senior Member
 
jvw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: central Alberta
Posts: 1,061
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 305 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Boles View Post
All true but the overall fact remains, 2/3ís of the crop is sold in the bottom 1/3 of the market.
I've often heard that, but never seen any actual evidence, it should be quite provable, can anyone direct me to a source that shows that to be true?

Somehow everyone I talk to, and most posters on these type of forums always sell not only in the top third, but usually the very top tick, same with yields, I see the AFSC numbers every year, yet everyone I've ever known or read has average yields substantially better than any of those recorded by AFSC. I must associate with nothing but the very best marketers and growers anywhere, right, that is the only logical explanation isn't it?
garyfunk likes this.

Justin Trudeau, accomplishing miracles since 2015, making Pierre Elliot look smart, competent and western friendly.
jvw is offline  
post #26 of 116 (permalink) Old 03-16-2018, 12:39 PM Thread Starter
jvw
Senior Member
 
jvw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: central Alberta
Posts: 1,061
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 305 Post(s)
I think the best way to avoid being a bottom 1/3 marketer, is not be in a situation where cashflow dictates marketing decisions ( buying or selling). Easier said than done, I realize, but consider this:
Some marketers refer to the John Deere Low, when payments are due so farmers all have to sell. If payments on late modeled machinery are what puts many operations into a situation where cashflow dictates poor marketing timing, maybe the equipment helped them increase productivity 10% over old payed for equipment(doubtful), but it cost 20% of gross profit due to having to sell at the bottom to make the payment, wouldn't they be better off with poorer productivity and better profit? Completely hypothetical numbers of course, and many operations not only do justify new equipment, but also do it profitably, but I also know there are many for whom it is a viscous cycle.
Combine Pilot and 1972RedNeck like this.

Justin Trudeau, accomplishing miracles since 2015, making Pierre Elliot look smart, competent and western friendly.
jvw is offline  
post #27 of 116 (permalink) Old 03-16-2018, 03:04 PM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: kitscoty
Posts: 263
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 24 Post(s)
This should be a good thread . Most talk on the forum is about equipment etc . I personally have been just selling at spot prices and not selling much of anything unless it is in the bin . We ( dad ,myself, and my brother) signed up on cargills market sense program to help understand some of the tools and plays that can be used to market grain . Puts , calls, and focal points are just some of the basic plays . We have learned a lot in the first six months but have by no means mastered anything . I feel it is going to take us a few yrs to really understand this stuff. Yes there is a fee to be on the program but we have easily gained that back already . I think the main reason for us going on the program is that it is hard to focus on this stuff ( ecspeacially if you don’t understand it. Having someone watching this stuff every day while we are farming is a plus . Selling into the future and planning out a farms revenue is going to be more important as time moves on . I don’t want to be left in the back of the pack !
KpprCrk likes this.
Fixx is offline  
post #28 of 116 (permalink) Old 03-16-2018, 03:19 PM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 181
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 26 Post(s)
I won't call myself a pro in marketing by any means but something that has always worked for me is forward selling enough to cover my cost of production. Bin space for me tends to be tight as I keep stuff for 2-3 years afterwards to get a price I'm happy with.
If you have a good relationship with your elevator and you forward sell your crop and can't fulfil it for harvest delivery the price is normally lower at harvest and another farmer will love to take your contract price over their cash price. I've only been burnt once in my life and that was with the fusarium scare and my durum.

I'm a small farmer though so I don't have to worry about cash flow as I work full time. But normally I like selling my input costs and sit on the rest until you get the high price you're looking for. Still sitting on some wheat canola and durum. I'll probably pull the trigger on canola if it gets to 12. Wheat I'll sell later in the spring.

I stick to my rotation, pushing rotation doesn't end well for me it seems, but lots of canola going in around my area this year,
jdhrasko likes this.
Dwf1990 is offline  
post #29 of 116 (permalink) Old 03-16-2018, 04:13 PM
Senior Member
 
jazz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: S. Sask
Posts: 2,184
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 860 Post(s)
Well my marketing plan basically is living large on the line of credit - no sales until that durum is $8 and canola/flax are over $12. That might take until May/June.

Typically I have found those two months to be the highest historical prices. Basically when the old crop is mostly gone and there is uncertainty about the new crop.
jazz is offline  
post #30 of 116 (permalink) Old 03-16-2018, 04:36 PM
HI!
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Three Hills/Trochu, Alberta, Canada
Posts: 2,378
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Quoted: 4675 Post(s)
And then there are the unforseen, sideswiping market factors, 600T of aging stored green peas really help put that in perspective!

Don Boles is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the The Combine Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in










Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome