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post #31 of 33 (permalink) Old 12-14-2018, 09:16 AM
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Grumpie Iím pretty sure cheap small fuel efficient cars have been around for a long time.

Some people prefer to drive Yukon s or expedition s and they must prefer it a lot as there is hardly a more expensive option as a people mover.

I am very impressed how the big vehicles have got good on fuel lately. My diesel gets 30 mpg highway. Average is 15 though because of pulling and short trips.

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post #32 of 33 (permalink) Old 12-14-2018, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Grumpie View Post
This crop year did not produce a lot off milling wheat around the globe and price should be around $10 .
Certainly the speculators don't believe this (the "market" does not believe this). And neither do I. There's simply no shortage of milling wheat in the world and never has been, short of a complete catastrophe in the northern hemisphere. Russia's wheat production makes our wheat just a drop in the bucket. Their quality is variable, but they produce a lot of it, so millers over there have no real problem getting the wheat they want. And I've not heard of any millers complaining in north America.

Even if wheat prices were kept artificially low, a shortage of milling wheat would lead to high flour and bread prices and that hasn't happened (yet). Despite widespread complaints about food prices, the fact is that most people in the developed world spend less of their salary on food than at any point in history.

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post #33 of 33 (permalink) Old 12-14-2018, 02:44 PM
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There seems to be no shortage of grain in the world. That is why i think that perception is a valid, and most accurate, way to view futures pricing in the casino and how they move. If a person thinks that is valid then if you can mange perception then you can manage price movements which is saying price fixing. And the more cash settlements allowed makes it easier to move perception /prices rather than if you actually had to take delivery of the commodity before initiating another trade.

The thing is, crop production is variable but perhaps on a global scale it is not that variable.
Here is something i am wondering regarding oil and so we can apply it to futures:
You can estimate oil production within a couple % looking forward say 6 months. Lets say you own 100 wells, it should be fairly easy to know how much will be pumped next week and 6 months from now. Expand that thinking to all oil pumped in the world. Is it fair to say production is known pretty close in 6 months. How about consumption, is there anything that really changes much in the world to change consumption habits more than 5%? Even a real cold snap in one part of the world, would that really move consumption? So, if we could argue production and consumption is pretty predictable then why does price move significantly over a 12 month window based on "news" ? Should it not be quite rock steady? Or is it the nature of futures trading that creates volatility which in turn creates opportunities at the casino? If that is true then it is nothing to do with supply/demand that changes price, it is in fact the futures market driven by perception.

If we accept that as true, can we still say futures price trading (via the casino, not a simple contract being farmer and buyer) always help the farmer?

Just throwing it out there, i need to think on it more but perhaps others can flesh it out.
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