Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: SW Saskatchewan
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 296 Post(s)
Quick Question Torriem, what happens in durum markets where there is no future price contracts available? How do they hedge that bet?
That is the one rather large concern I have is the difference between paper and real product. At times, future markets can have 10 times the paper floating around than they actually have product to back it up. That is a problem IMO. I have long said stock markets are good but when you can buy stocks long or short at the same time, you have set up a gambling consortium!
I have noticed some very interesting occurrences recently involving trading in a couple day period. They all appear coordinated or at the very least very reactional pricing.
I follow Johnston's Daily. One day a rather large wack of feed durum traded very quickly. His report came out in the evening. The next day the same thing occurred with red lentils that triggered in very rapid succession too. I am trying to figure out how this occurs in our system.
My lentils trigerred at .16 the very same day as these ones did (November 7). Mine triggered with Richardson Pioneer (RP). I know I wasn't the only one at that price as there was lots of people delivering these lentils to RP this week just as I was. Was it all the same company who bought? Who pulled the trigger? Who scared the market into action? Johnston's site triggered that day as shown below. Does RP buy through them as well? (21 Super Bs besides RP's)
Traded 84MT / 2 B Loads FOB Richmound, SK for $ .16/Lb Dec, 2018
Traded 126MT / 3 B Loads DLVD SK Plant for $ .165/Lb Nov-Dec, 2018
Traded 420MT / 10 B Loads FOB Prelate, SK for $ .16/Lb Nov-Jan, 2019
Traded 252MT / 6 B Loads FOB Fox Valley, SK for $ .16/Lb Nov-Jan, 2019"
The day before I never saw so much feed durum triggered and traded all on one day! The market was quiet for months with not even a murder. Then on Nov 6/18 this occurs. What psychology pushed this grain into the market. (29 super Bs!)
Traded 440MT / 10 B Loads FOB Consul, SK for $ 5.90/Bushel Dec-Jan, 2019
Traded 176MT / 4 Loads FOB Consul, SK for $ 5.90/Bushel Dec-Jan, 2019
Traded 84MT / 2 B Loads FOB Fox Valley, SK for $ 5.50/Bushel (High moisture) Jan, 2019
Traded 42MT / 1 B Load FOB Fox Valley, SK for $ 5.50/Bushel (High Moisture) Nov, 2018
Traded 528M / 12 B Loads FOB Consul, SK for $ 5.90/Bushel Dec-Feb, 2019"
Meanwhile, we read about a week or so later, that the monsoon rains aren't falling in India and will cause lentils to rise. Who and how did these people have the foreknowledge that the farmer doesn't so that they quickly can jump on and buy cheap product before the news of drought hits?
Again, like Grumpie, I am looking for logical answers. I am not trying to be a smartass - just plain curious how it works and maybe try to figure out how I can get the "insider" information required to become rich!
It is not What you know, it is WHO you know that counts! Currency is a UNIT of debt - not value!
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Last edited by RunninREDharD; 12-12-2018 at 12:46 AM.