Where is Wheat market heading? - Page 2 - The Combine Forum
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post #11 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 03:21 PM
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Durum price just took a huge **** couple days ago. Dropped 35 cents


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post #12 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 03:45 PM
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I keep getting these amber (durum) alerts from AGT foods for $6.85 like I am supposed to jump out of my seat and run to the bin. I wont move until that's safely over $7. Once St Lawrence is ice free, some seeding intentions are announced and maybe some weather worries is the time to usually sell.

That's maybe a good thing. I find once elevators etc. start calling looking for something, usually in a week or two the price will take a jump up. They know prices are going up so want to fill the elevators up with the cheap stuff first. Have had a grain brokering company from Alberta calling for a couple months now looking for barley, but their prices are a joke. Told him what were getting for ours picked up and at fist he didn't believe me, but after calling a few times he now believes me. This tells me people are getting short of barley and there will be a price increase shortly. Generally the only time an elevator speaks to me is when there is an opportunity for them to make a good chunk of cash. And maybe because I am a dick and they don't want to deal with me! Sometimes I am too honest with them when I let them know what I think!

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post #13 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 04:10 PM
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All the wheat here was 1 red high protein and basis has been terrible all winter. Elevators tell me there is unit trains of targets in for $7 so don't expect them to ever post a good price, plus they have guys with futures locked in that have zero options on basis now.

We need more livestock production and feed markets.

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post #14 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 06:34 PM
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Does anyone know what a historic high is for spring wheat ? Are we not close to it around $7.00?

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post #15 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 06:41 PM
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Does anyone know what a historic high is for spring wheat ? Are we not close to it around $7.00?
Not even close if you played fixed price game under wheat board. Pulled 8 something one year if I remember correctly.
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post #16 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 07:25 PM
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Ok, that’s what I was wondering. I don’t grow it so I don’t follow it that closely. Thanks.

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post #17 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 07:32 PM
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Not even close if you played fixed price game under wheat board. Pulled 8 something one year if I remember correctly.
Almost nobody in "Western" Canada participated in that record bull market in wheat, but we sure as heck all paid for it when the CWB got caught in that squeeze on Minneapolis futures and couldn't deliver their way out of that position!!! Funny nobody from the federal gov't went back and audited the books to see how much we lost because of that incompetence.

To capitalize in on that rally you needed the DPC not the FPC if I recall correctly, but that was limited tonnes and got snapped up in previous August(ish). Rest of grain was stuck in the pool, which never saw the high numbers. But any American farmer with wheat in the bin could load up and go to the elevator for payday. That's what they call MARKETING FREEDOM. All the wheat growers in the northern plains of US should say thanks if they held wheat into the spring of 2008 and cashed in.

But yeah bjtjjl we are near the upper range of normal prices historically, although cash price is a good buck lower than last handful of years with quality being up. Mentally that's hard to take but need to get past that. Very little if any carry in the market and here is a May MN wheat chart. What is this market telling us???

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post #18 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 07:54 PM
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Does anyone know what a historic high is for spring wheat ? Are we not close to it around $7.00?


not by a long shot! must have been around 13 or 14 I had some targets trigger around 9.50. and did some FPC's in the high $8s towards end of the wheat board days too. summer of 17 I remember fall delivery bids around $9 for about a week. was too chicken contract any then though bc it was so dry (hence the high bids!!!!!!!)




a quick look on bar chart showed wheat ran up to $12 US on the futures in 2008 (the good ol days!!!!) not sure what that converted to in farmgate bids. that's going back a long way in memory but I think the Communist Wheat Board missed the boat on most of that big run up that year. I think it was what really put the final nails in their coffin.


the Aussies on here can maybe comment for sure but its over $10 / bu domestic in Australia right now is it not?


exportable stocks have to be every bit as low as they were in both 08 and 13 when the markets had the big runs..... Russia, Europe and Aus all had small crops and Canada / US were not huge. everyone was holding out on price coming around after Russian exports slowed down but they did not. the only 2 differences is that Corn is not in massive shortage this time (so not diverting some wheat to feed) and the massive wrecking ball effects of Senor Trump on the world trade markets. so the scary thing there is that a weather turn around this year likely wont be driving prices up!!!! that being said if things start out dry in Canada / Aus ........ because US winter wheat plantings are really low.


sold most of mine in the fall on 7.25 and 7.40 targets. glad I got out when I did!!!!!


western SK bids still over $7. don't know if that equalizes a bit on E side when TBay reopens or not.


target price contracts work if you get out a head of the market and list before everyone and their dog is starting to dump. wait too long and the will just sit there.
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post #19 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-24-2019, 02:17 PM
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The so called “open market” still has not outdone the $12 Durum I received under the wheat board. Can’t remember which year but haven’t reached it since .
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post #20 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-24-2019, 02:53 PM
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The so called “open market” still has not outdone the $12 Durum I received under the wheat board. Can’t remember which year but haven’t reached it since .
It did in the states. Don't forget all those years you "Western" Canadian durum growers had to keep your durum in the bins so the market wasn't flooded while the US producers got to cash in. Not sure how any durum producer could willfully support that brutal system...they got bent over worse than the HRS growers!


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