Where is Wheat market heading? - Page 3 - The Combine Forum
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post #21 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-24-2019, 03:00 PM
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The so called “open market” still has not outdone the $12 Durum I received under the wheat board. Can’t remember which year but haven’t reached it since .
It did in the states. Don't forget all those years you "Western" Canadian durum growers had to keep your durum in the bins so the market wasn't flooded while the US producers got to cash in. Not sure how any durum producer could willfully support that brutal system...they got bent over worse than the HRS growers![IMG class=inlineimg]/forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif[/IMG]
Yup, when I first started farming I considered to stop growing cereals all together because of the CWB it was next to impossible to bank roll my farm while I sat on bins full of durum that the CWB wouldn't take. The only thing I liked about the CWB was all of a sudden you'd get your final payment cheque in the mail like 18 months later after completely forgetting about selling that durum.

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post #22 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-24-2019, 07:55 PM
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US winter wheat acreage isn't down enough to have much impact I don't think. The last couple years have been around 32.5 million acres. This year forecasted is 31.3 million. Conditions are worse than last year but it's still early. Total area is less than the 40-45 million from years back but everybody and anybody can grow wheat. Russian total acres are down but acres are up in higher yielding districts.

If the dollar would take a crap it would help quite a bit. The wheat sales last week were all sourced from other countries.

A deal with China would help quite a bit if wheat can piggy back in with the corn. Not sure we can count on that in the next 2 months.

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post #23 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-24-2019, 09:22 PM
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The so called “open market” still has not outdone the $12 Durum I received under the wheat board. Can’t remember which year but haven’t reached it since .
I sold $14 durum in 2014. Open market.

And that was in October/November. Didn’t have to wait for any payments or delivery etc.
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Brent.
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post #24 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-24-2019, 10:20 PM Thread Starter
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It’s interesting hearing some history. So feel free to continue the discussion. I was mainly looking for advice for the short term between now and September. I know I have to sell between now and then because of bin space and it doesnt make sense to pay a pile of interest on inputs waiting for a few more pennies per bushel. I just wondered if peoples feelings were that it would continue to dive or if it would rally a bit towards july/august.
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post #25 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-24-2019, 10:25 PM Thread Starter
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It’s interesting hearing some history. So feel free to continue the discussion. I was mainly looking for advice for the short term between now and September. I know I have to sell between now and then because of bin space and it doesnt make sense to pay a pile of interest on inputs waiting for a few more pennies per bushel. I just wondered if peoples feelings were that it would continue to dive or if it would rally a bit towards july/august.
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post #26 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-25-2019, 01:23 AM
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Down here I got $20/bu for 16% in 2011 I think it was(whatever year had the record high, I had alot of high protein stuff). Horizon resources shut down about a truck or two after me. They didn't like writing million dollar checks as they couldn't get it out of Williston fast enough, they were worried about being stuck with elevators full and piles of it and the market crashing. Once it fell below $15 they opened again.

If it helps any, the word in the Valley(ND side, central anyways) is if corn and beans don't come up, it will be all wheat and barely...not sure why many are saying that, but it's their life. Maybe they're saying that to make a market go up...

Otherwise markets are you're dammed if you do, damned of you don't. Down here there's an investment guy on 550 who says(which is true) there will be a rally sometime between February and March to make us plant wheat(give us hope) then it'll go down again. Historically it is true.

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post #27 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-25-2019, 01:31 AM
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It's funny how some of you feel this false sense of a free market is even real.

# 2 in Canada is really a #1 hrs in the global market. Plus the elevators blend it for their profit, plus they take more dockage then what's really there, we don't get paid for any dockage, yet they do, plus they make money on exchange rates.
Then there is the fact that they complicate the **** out of the marketing, as to make sure you either A get confused as all **** and don't market well, or B use their over priced marketing people and schemes.

I don't trust these huge multi national elevators as far as I can throw them, which isn't very far.. open your eyes people, they (along with bribed government officials) control us now, and they came to Canada for one reason, and one reason only.. to get rich, and that's what they're doing.
Just like SNC Lav, there's a lot of corruption in big business out there. Many people underestimate the power of these large companies.

So wheat.. anyone's guess what they will want to pay us, I say they don't mind us grumbling about price, but just enough to make sure we keep farming so the money keeps rolling in for them.
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post #28 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-25-2019, 06:09 AM
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hihi962 the Canadian grading system has always been on it's own set of rules long before I started farming. At least they have recently got rid of the KVD(kernel visual distinguishability) which was a complete joke! Yeah marketing is complicated but well worth the effort in the scheme of things on a farm. It also requires some self control and patience, which are also good qualities to have as a farmer. I'm not sure what the evil grain companies are doing to complicate marketing beyond calculating basis differently or using a different base grade??? Also I'm not sure why anyone would want to trust the Federal gov't in Canada with pricing their product after how corrupt they are proven to be, I'll take my chances with the dozen or so grain companies who have to compete with each other.

kochia I wondered if there wouldn't be a lot of cereal grains go in south of the border. Last year wheat did better than corn here for net returns and is less risk.

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post #29 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-25-2019, 06:12 PM
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More years than not I find there’s usually a premium to haul HRS through seeding.
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post #30 of 75 (permalink) Old 02-25-2019, 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by bjtjjl View Post
Does anyone know what a historic high is for spring wheat ? Are we not close to it around $7.00?

Harvest of 2017 off the combine $8.15 and had some priced at $8.40 for Dec..
Both were priced June of 2017..It was for 12.5 protien..


Last edited by Partners; 02-25-2019 at 06:23 PM. Reason: missed a point
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