Where is Wheat market heading? - The Combine Forum
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post #1 of 74 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 09:23 AM Thread Starter
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Where is Wheat market heading?

Im just looking for some advice from guys that have been in the game longer than myself. I know its impossible to know where the markets are heading exactly but experience does count for something. Basically I am wondering what peoples feelings are for the hard red milling wheat between now and September. I still have all of last years wheat and am looking to sell it sometime between now or then. This past week the price dropped quite a bit and started to make me wonder why I hadn’t already sold some or all of it.

Is this drop in price going to continue? Is it just because its getting close to spring and prices will rebound afterwards? It looks like it has been typical for the price of wheat to spike in July/August in the past few years so is holding out for then a better idea?

Fortunately I am in a position right now that I dont need to sell it but after spring time I will have inputs to pay for.

Any advice is appreciated and thanks for taking the time to reply.

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post #2 of 74 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 10:17 AM
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I wouldn’t expect a huge rally, but state side there has been confusion why it did what it did. Think the traders have been asleep at the wheel, but with Friday’s reports it may started to correct a bit.

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post #3 of 74 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 10:32 AM
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If anyone can figure it out, please let me know! We seldom grow wheat, last year was the first time in 5-6 years. Every time we grow it, the market sucks. Got more for our stuff that was snowed on 3 times, was a feed but graded a #3 with 11.8 protein than we can get now for our stuff we got off early and is a #1 11.8 protein. Can get more for the #1 stuff we have now as feed than we can get for it selling it as a #1. What a screwed up market. Not growing any next year.

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post #4 of 74 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 12:42 PM Thread Starter
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I understand your thinking Kevlar. I was just looking for educated guesses from others and seeing what others might be doing in similar situations. All my wheat from last year tested between 13.3 and 14.4 and all made #1 so I wont have trouble finding a home for it. Yesterday the local price for #1 13.5 was 6.74 / bushel.

Basically just wondering what other people’s guts are telling them.
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post #5 of 74 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 12:53 PM
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If you see a $7 with the price, I would say that's in the money for wheat or durum. Not expecting much other than sideways movement, seasonal tick up at seeding when inventories are lowest. I usually sell my durum may/june.
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post #6 of 74 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 02:03 PM
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I would wait until spring seeding is done and see how many acres were put in. This royalty thing may cut into acres and cause a little panic rally early summer. My thinking was $7.50 a bushel would be my trigger, but #1 is in short supply right now, mine is all feed. if we have a super hot dry spring feed wheat may rally as well but you have to be diligent.
Also there is a lot of fallout with carbon tax cutting into production cost which may also cause some nerves to fret on securing supply.
If i had a good inventory i would put one third (or what you need to clear bills) of it at $8 bu on a trigger at your elevator. Just my opinion, take it for what it is worth, and do what you feel comfortable in your gut.
By no means have i ever scored big, Lol.
But i believe there will be no bumper wheat crop for 2019, just to many negatives in the air right now with the will by farmers to produce wheat. (just my speculation).

I wonder how high does the price per bushel have to get before it makes sense to import our needs?
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post #7 of 74 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 02:12 PM
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What is the all time high for spring wheat in western Canada ?

Brent.
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post #8 of 74 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 02:33 PM Thread Starter
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Thanks Jazz and Combine Pilot. These are the kind of comments im looking for. Im not looking to hit it out of the park. Just not ready to give it away yet if I dont have to but last week made me a little more uneasy.
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post #9 of 74 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 02:46 PM
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$6.50 for #1, above 13.5 protein is theft in my opinion. i wouldn't sell any of it, unless, the bill collector was standing behind me with a pen in my back.
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post #10 of 74 (permalink) Old 02-23-2019, 03:08 PM
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I keep getting these amber (durum) alerts from AGT foods for $6.85 like I am supposed to jump out of my seat and run to the bin. I wont move until that's safely over $7. Once St Lawrence is ice free, some seeding intentions are announced and maybe some weather worries is the time to usually sell.

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