Oats - The Combine Forum
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post #1 of 41 (permalink) Old 02-28-2019, 09:09 AM Thread Starter
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Oats

Where is this crop going? Dose it have more room to go up. Or is it going to fall flat? Where do you go to look at the trading price.

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post #2 of 41 (permalink) Old 02-28-2019, 10:41 AM
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There are oat futures traded, but they are irrelevant. Oat prices rise and fall dependent on demand from the major processors. Where are oat prices going? good question. We have just come through some recent historically high oat values, sounds like more barley will be going in the ground this year, could mean less oat acres, could mean supported prices. On the other hand who knows processors are a fickle bunch of buyers.

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post #3 of 41 (permalink) Old 02-28-2019, 10:55 AM
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Just saw an oat chart the other day.
I agree Chicago oats is a fairly dysfunctional market.
But the so called expert I listened to said by the looks of the oats chart the mills have already locked up enough product.
Funny thing is the local mill says they have lots of product but I hear from guys that they are pulling ddc contracts not due for a couple months ahead for delivery now.
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post #4 of 41 (permalink) Old 02-28-2019, 11:16 AM
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That's funny, because I am still waiting to deliver a Dec/Jan oat contract, maybe next week, but that is what I have hear since Dec 15.
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post #5 of 41 (permalink) Old 02-28-2019, 11:23 AM
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I find oats to be frustrating market sometimes. Never grew any last year, but for the last 2 years before that, we were getting more for them as feed. The mills like to whine and cry when there is a shortage, but seem to be unwilling to pay up when they need them. Talked to a guy at General Mills a few years ago when the rail couldn't keep up with shipments, we had close to 100,000 bushels between us and a couple neighbors, but they were completely unwilling to work something out with us, they wanted to go through a broker or elevator which was paying under 3 bucks I believe. They seemed to be more interested in going to the media and crying about how they can't get product. Maybe if they tried to work with the farmers........
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post #6 of 41 (permalink) Old 02-28-2019, 11:42 AM
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I can almost see the oat mill here from home.
I quit growing oats a many years back.
Too much hassle to deal with them, they can find someone else to play their games with.
There must be some demand for oats lately because the elevators around here have bids now at least somewhat competitive.
The last few years the elevators were at such a big discount it seemed like they hardly wanted to handle any oats unless they could get them as a complete gift.
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post #7 of 41 (permalink) Old 02-28-2019, 02:00 PM
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Thought I heard somewhere oat stocks are at historical lows... but then I also hear from attending winter events that lots of guys are planning to grow oats that haven't for a while. Could be a flooded market. I wouldn't bet the farm on it. All our 2018 oats were sold early, and good thing because our usual buyer is all filled up.
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post #8 of 41 (permalink) Old 02-28-2019, 02:28 PM
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A neighbor started a fee years ago filling sea cans with oats and sending it east, by passing the elevators and such. Was profitable for him then and I believe he still does it. Sometimes it's nice to bypass elevators and their games.
Think it was going to a pony oats market.
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post #9 of 41 (permalink) Old 02-28-2019, 04:00 PM
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This is what I know,
1) we will have low carryover
2) both Viterra in Camrose and Canadian Oat west of Edmonton are pulling contracts ahead of schedule, some months ahead to get oats into their plants
3) supposedly one processor needs a sizeable volume to finish into summer before new crop.
4) new crop contracts are the best in AB they have been that I can remember
5) POGA has worked hard to increase market share in Mexico, record sales this year so far, part of that is the poor Australian crop
6) POGA is in the process to gain access to China, which if Australia has another poor oat crop, access to China could get fast tracked, this would be very good for oat market and price
7) the US mills are not proactive but reactive, they are not the bellwether they once were (in my opinion)
8) oats is becoming more and more popular in food ingredient world as a replacement for a number of other ingredients

I believe there will be more oats grown in AB specifically and probably prairie wide, I would have a good chunk of my production for new crop contracted. Oats on our farm will likely be one of the best returns, either behind canola or ahead. Key is to treat crop like a cash crop and one you need to get quality from, cannot be the last crop planted and thought about throughout the year.
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post #10 of 41 (permalink) Old 02-28-2019, 06:36 PM
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I'd plant oats... but the straw!!
My wife wont let me burn straw off fields close to our house....!


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