Canola Shipments Cancelled - Page 35 - The Combine Forum
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #341 of 346 (permalink) Old 05-12-2019, 12:36 AM
Senior Member
SWMan's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Killarney, MB
Posts: 7,677
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Quoted: 2811 Post(s)
Originally Posted by bjtjjl View Post
Why do you think the states will see higher commodity prices ? When the government starts buying them, it will put a ceiling on prices.
If they use up the over-supply it should stimulate prices on remaining bushels, provided they don't displace traditional markets. Again the details could change a lot.

Actually I think they should just increase the required ethanol percentage in gasoline, then let the markets sort out the crop spreads after that. Big oil would have(and surely has had) a lot of say in that decision though.

torriem the reason things are made in China is because of cheap labor and a low regulation environment. That's what took business over there initially. Sure the parts are all made there now and proximity is close to source components, but that is only now a side-effect reason and not the initial cause IMO.

Orlando A. Battista
SWMan is offline  
Sponsored Links
post #342 of 346 (permalink) Old 05-12-2019, 03:53 AM
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: South Central MN
Posts: 1,408
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 251 Post(s)
Originally Posted by SWMan View Post
If they use up the over-supply it should stimulate prices on remaining bushels, provided they don't displace traditional markets. Again the details could change a lot.
The feelings of some here in the states it that it could cause prices to drop.
Right now weather is an issue, a lot of corn and soybeans acres have not been planted and forecast still looks wet, I have not put anything in here yet. Some put in corn this past week but we had a cold soaking rain that might have hurt some, don't know if it will be fine or if guys will need to replant a bunch.
Even with a lot of unplanted acres we still have a lot of grain sitting around according to the markets, figure the closest year to compare was 1993 and that year corn took a while to start going up.

MNfarmer85 is offline  
post #343 of 346 (permalink) Old 05-12-2019, 04:58 AM
Senior Member
cptusa's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: east central IA
Posts: 4,379
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Quoted: 1482 Post(s)
Weather is a big issue but the market doesn't seem to care. USDA says we're going to plant every acre at trend line yields, a bit of a stretch.

Don't blame the baker when the butcher bakes the bread.
cptusa is online now  
Sponsored Links
post #344 of 346 (permalink) Old 05-12-2019, 10:02 AM
Senior Member
kenmb's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Central Sk
Posts: 3,558
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Quoted: 776 Post(s)
It's quite the story now. Trudeau is saying the canola import bans are tied to the US trade war. I tend to think this is more plausible as I believe we are seeing a restructuring of trade. But everyone else says it is because of Hauwei, so whatever.

As for Chinese goods, yes labour is a small component. Bigger factors are regulations, energy costs, raw material availability, and government influence. All you need to do is look at government involvement as it pertains to something like auto industry in Ontario. The industry exists based on government policy. Compare Ontario to China to see what is the greatest business cost. Is it really labour? And now let's throw in economic policy where you really have no idea the value of the "incentives" being fed into China manufacturing by its government from the central bank. Anyone know how heavily subsidized Chinese manufacturing is? Probably no one really does. Suppose 50% of Canada's taxes go to support Ontario manufacturing - would that create an extremely competive sector on the world stage? If so, does the world trading partners simply say "well played Canada, carry on, we will buy" or do you think some other actions should be taken.

Now suppose this is exactly what China is doing to us. Do we have an audit of the Chinese government, banking and manufacturing sectors to know if they are playing a level, capitalist based economic model with next to no economic support.
kenmb is online now  
post #345 of 346 (permalink) Old 05-12-2019, 01:05 PM
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Red River Valley
Posts: 50
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 9 Post(s)
Beans, Corn, Canola, Wheat, Peas doesn't matter if your an American mid-west Farmer or a Canadian Northern plains farmer were all in this together and feel the pain together. Even with our Canadian dollar difference which has beans trading at around 8.95 a bushel, a 35-45 bushel crop yield doesn't leave much left. Just wondering as a Red River valley farmer, we get zero subsidies for our grain . My Question is ,How DO our American counter parts, make a go at sub 7 dollar per bushel beans. Does your R P crop insurance help bolster the price. Last year we could make a decent go with our Canadian dollar and better basis. At last years harvest Cargill was offer a 2.60 cent bushel premium on soybeans over the Chicago board of trade price because the Chinese were buying our grain. That wont be the case this year, our basis is very poor now. Now that Canada is in this trade war we are all at the mercy of the Chicago board of trade . THIS IS ALL GOVERNMENT POLITICS. Our Prime Minister has to bit his tongue fly over to china , Kiss ### and make amends. He has to drop his own agenda on human rights in china and just focus on business. The World is not perfect, wish it was, but making us farming GUYS SUFFER BECAUSE OF HIS AGENDA is not helping. You cant bully China. Trump is the same but different agenda on intellectual rights on technology. Hope our friends to the south get a decent bail out on corn and beans . Just wanted our American farmers to know that us Canadians get no bail outs. The Canadian Canola advance is a Loan. My question is if a deal does get done what kind of price rebound will there be. If this is turns out to be a supply demand problem like is suggested than a rebound is not likely. Lean times ahead. Still don't like Hockey night in Canada sponsored by a Chinese Phone company! Least Don Cherry is sponsored by Bud.!Cheers to that!
Oat King is online now  
post #346 of 346 (permalink) Old 05-30-2019, 02:06 AM
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 827
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 149 Post(s)

Originally Posted by adsinaus View Post
^^ This.

Talking a potential 30% decline in the size of Chinaís pig herd
Originally Posted by Snapper22 View Post
Find it funny though China has suspended pork imports from Olymel and another packer. The actions of dictatorships donít make sense to democracies. The swine flu hit them hard and continues to spread into neighboring countries. This has potential to be the black swan for feed grain demand tanking or a upswing in demand for meat. Only so much tofu a chinaman will stand.
Seems like the swine-flu story keeps evolving.
adsinaus is offline  
Sponsored Links

Quick Reply

Register Now

In order to be able to post messages on the The Combine Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:


Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Growing peas and canola together?? gwagen Crop Production 16 10-04-2014 06:02 AM
Polish canola after prepass???????? uthinkyourwet? Planting & Tillage 1 06-14-2011 01:25 AM
How much N on Polish Canola? bud Crop Production 2 05-28-2011 12:32 PM
St Cut Canola and WIND bud Crop Production 16 10-05-2009 07:55 AM
Straight cut/swath canola? What's your take? Don Boles Crop Production 85 03-10-2009 07:17 PM

Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome