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Canola Shipments Cancelled

79K views 345 replies 77 participants last post by  adsinaus 
#1 ·
#3 ·
And land prices too.


Like I said before just sign the USMCA as fast as we can, wait until Trump gets his china deal and then send mrs meng home and save our trade. Trump wont care by that time. We are not a nation of laws anyway as evidenced by our PM, might as well save our economy.

But I suspect that trump has already made a deal with china to be almost a sole exporter of ag to china and our canola industry will wither either way.

This is what weak leadership does.
 
#4 ·
I did the math on the 2.5 billion dollars of canola that Canada exports to China. So with an average of 450 dollars an acre that is 5.5 million acres. Canada grows 22.7 million acres of canola in 2018. Yes there would be a hit to the market. So a 25% decrease in price is 7-8 dollars a bushel. Dont get me started with if the canadian dollar starts to rise and the 30% currency premium we get now when we sell out of country. Considering canola is a crop that we look for the best bang for your buck and now it wont be that attractive. So will nothing else. Any suggestion on a new cash crop that can grow in four months.
 
#6 ·
As we learned in the past yrs with lentils and durum, you can have all the best farming practices in the world, but when a market is closed you have few options. Not sure about land prices, but our input cost regime needs a radical overhaul because throwing more groceries at it wont help now.

And honestly this is a good wake up call for ag. There are many lower price competitors entering the market like Russia, Kazakhstan and Argentina and we need to be ready for those.
 
#13 ·
Retailers will be getting lots of phone calls today, not for more seed bookings , rather cancellations.
It wasn’t enough canola prices have been flushed down the toilet in the past couple wks, now this.
Real positive outlook heading into spring ...... NOT!!
 
#16 ·
It is what it is, and how we arrived at where we are now.

“Historians have observed that while the Doctrine contained a commitment to resist colonialism from Europe, it had some aggressive implications for American policy, since there were no limitations on the US's own actions mentioned within it. Scholar Jay Sexton notes that the tactics used to implement the doctrine were "modeled after those employed by British imperialists" and their competition with the Spanish and French.[53] Eminent historian William Appleman Williams described it as a form of "imperial anti-colonialism."[54] Noam Chomsky argues that in practice the Monroe Doctrine has been used as a declaration of hegemony and a right of unilateral intervention over the Americas.”[55]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine
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#23 ·
No surprise as to what happened in Canola market today.

Trudeau has been chirping about protecting the economy and good paying Canadian jobs in his rebuke to the SNC scandal. Now I need to refresh my Canadian history as to where the boundary was between Upper and Lower Canada. Looks like JT is only worried about good paying jobs for his corrupt buddies in Lower Canada. Heck MB, SK, AB, BC aren't even part of Canada according to the map I looked at. We are in RupertsLand. No wonder JT not worried about us. We are in a different country.

If he was truly worried about the economy and good jobs the Trans Mountain pipeline and the Energy East pipelines would be a done deal. More jobs and $ at stake in Alberta alone than all of SNC put together. And thats not factoring in all the taxes and royalties Ottawa would be collecting.

As far as the China debacle goes if the Feds were smart this all could have been avoided if some thought and tact were used. China's response is no surprise.

The canola market took a hit today.
My math based on total canola crop.

21,300,000 MT x -$2.90 / MT drop = $ 61,770,000 hit to canola market today only.

Now lets compare SNC.

Approx est 9000 CDN employees x 8 hr/day x $ 30 / HR = $ 2,160,000 daily wages.
I can't comment on how many bribe $$$ at stake in Canada. Have no idea how many pigs at the trough collecting on this one!

I guess in comparison to canola SNC is small potatoes. Could even call it collateral damage.

Maybe because we don't have to pay out bribes to give away our oil and canola we aren't entitled to help and special treatment from Ottawa!!

Maybe we need to lobby for compensation on the canola market.

When feds put tariffs on steel, aluminum and other products they promissed some help to affected industries.

Heck even the Canadian media got something like $590 million to help out in tough times!! Conveniently a year before an election to encourage favorable news coverage no doubt??????

It's not all bad. Look on the bright side. WE ARE A RULE OF LAW COUNTRY !!!

More like ; WE ARE A DISFUNCTIONAL COUNTRY !!!!

Thanks JT
 
#24 ·
Heard a good one this past week, Justin's not concerned about any job but his own. He'll do whatever he needs to do to stay in the PMO. This is just going from bad to worse. Think Justin would notice if we switched October to April so we can have the election now before his bought and paid for media shills can find a way to bury this below breaking news like Justin Beiber got a new cat or something. Although I'm not sure there are many journalists that have anything too kind to say about JT right now
 
#27 · (Edited)
Yeah I’m curious too, Nodust. Do we want an independent judiciary and the ability to call for JT’s head for attempting to corrupt it for Quebec, or do we just want him to erode democracy evenly for the benefit of the east and the west?

It was the US that started this haiwei mess by requesting the execs arrest and extradition for violating the sanctions trump put back on Iran. Should Canadian law enforcement have ignored the extradition treaties to protect us economically?

Of course China is going to swing its d ick. It’s what they do. And it sucks it hit us as farmers. Unfortunately we got caught between a rock(the US) and s hard place(China). We were screwed either way.
 
#28 ·
Yeah I’m curious too, Nodust. Do we want an independent judiciary and the ability to call for JT’s head for attempting to corrupt it for Quebec, or do we just want him to erode democracy evenly for the benefit of the east and the west?

It was the US that started this haiwei mess by requesting the execs arrest and extradition for violating the sanctions trump put back on Iran. Should Canadian law enforcement have ignored the extradition treaties to protect us economically?

Of course China is going to swing its d ick. It’s what they do. And it sucks it hit us as farmers. Unfortunately we got caught between a rock(the US) and s hard place(China). We were screwed either way.
I was wondering if China was going to try and hit back this way, probably one of the only ways they know how.


Here soybean prices have been floating around the same point for the past couple months but dropped a little lately, although some might be seasonal. (John Deere lows, ect...) Lots of grain getting sold around the end of February to pay bills, time will tell if they go back up later. However if the cold weather keeps up and forces a late spring might be a lot more soybeans in the ground than planned for.


Time to get creative and find more uses for canola and soys in the Americas or else a short list of other countries, China loves to throw their weight around a bit once in a while.
 
#29 ·
Honestly I blame the dumb ***** for getting herself caught. The US are after her because of dealings with Iran. Hummmm let’s fly into a country that has close ties to the US. Geee you think Canada and the US might have extrications treaty’s???? Moron. Or was it ego that Canada would do nothing

The embarrassing part is Canada was handed a great bargains chip but will JT use it.. of course not
 
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#31 ·
Richardson was named but no one has been selling volumes of Canadian canola (or wheat) into China since December, the line companies were still executing fall contracts to at least now and I suspect there were some small trades made over the winter but I’m sure they were few. We should have benefited by way of basis from the China US dispute but weakness in Chicago capped gains on ICE and in Minniapolis and general lack of demand kept a lid on basis. Feed grains sold well prior to December, to make up the shortfall of US bean meal and US corn in pig rations but PED and our escalating tensions will soon cap those markets.
Now that the US talks are going well, and the South American summer crop is coming off with reasonable quality the Chinese can make a stand. What are some unique ways to hurt Canada? Canola, softwood lumber, coal perhaps?

Heard a comment from an ex Chinese diplomat today that they aren’t ****ing around and this is just the start.

I’m just a guy thinking about the rumblings I’ve heard through the winter, I sure hope it doesn’t get as bad as it could. Maybe I’m just being dramatic, ICE lost less than 0.5% today and Richardson didn’t adjust basis, it’s not catching them by surprise.
 
#32 · (Edited)
I don’t know what can be done about the situation but I just hope that all of the producers affected understand that if Canada does not extradite this executive, Canada will be sanctioned by the USA.

The law that was allegedly broken is a USA law passed by both Houses of Congress and by the US president, to be applied inside a foreign country in a different hemisphere. It is intended exclusively as a punitive action for that nation refusing US dictatorship inside of Iran specifically.

Occasionally this corporations products are claimed to be threats to national security, which may or may not be true, what is also just as true, is that in no way, is the USA concerned about Iran’s national security, which was the end user of the proposed or completed communications equipment sale.

The cost of hegemony is going to get very high outside of fifty states and one district. Ending these legislated conundrums and catastrophe may, in the end someday be simultaneous.
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#37 ·
And THAT is a perfect example of how ignorant the entire news media is about almost every topic. Just quote some random twitter feeds and call it a day...:rolleyes:

BTW I can't find the article now, maybe it was just a headline? They do put stuff up and change it all the time though.
 
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