Canola Shipments Cancelled - The Combine Forum
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post #1 of 346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2019, 08:17 AM Thread Starter
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Canola Shipments Cancelled

yup, as expected;

https://globalnews.ca/news/5021950/c...international/

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post #2 of 346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2019, 08:42 AM
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That might put a cap on canola acres!

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post #3 of 346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2019, 08:47 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by bjtjjl View Post
That might put a cap on canola acres!
And land prices too.


Like I said before just sign the USMCA as fast as we can, wait until Trump gets his china deal and then send mrs meng home and save our trade. Trump wont care by that time. We are not a nation of laws anyway as evidenced by our PM, might as well save our economy.

But I suspect that trump has already made a deal with china to be almost a sole exporter of ag to china and our canola industry will wither either way.

This is what weak leadership does.
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post #4 of 346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2019, 09:07 AM
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I did the math on the 2.5 billion dollars of canola that Canada exports to China. So with an average of 450 dollars an acre that is 5.5 million acres. Canada grows 22.7 million acres of canola in 2018. Yes there would be a hit to the market. So a 25% decrease in price is 7-8 dollars a bushel. Dont get me started with if the canadian dollar starts to rise and the 30% currency premium we get now when we sell out of country. Considering canola is a crop that we look for the best bang for your buck and now it wont be that attractive. So will nothing else. Any suggestion on a new cash crop that can grow in four months.
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post #5 of 346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2019, 09:41 AM
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So soybeans were worthless now canola is heading that way.

I feel like I should shell out $6000 an acre for some land...
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post #6 of 346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2019, 10:31 AM Thread Starter
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As we learned in the past yrs with lentils and durum, you can have all the best farming practices in the world, but when a market is closed you have few options. Not sure about land prices, but our input cost regime needs a radical overhaul because throwing more groceries at it wont help now.

And honestly this is a good wake up call for ag. There are many lower price competitors entering the market like Russia, Kazakhstan and Argentina and we need to be ready for those.
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post #7 of 346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2019, 11:18 AM
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I wonder if this is China's reaction to smelling blood in the water regarding the Trudeau governments recent woes and are just doing this to put a few more nails in the liberals coffin in an election year.
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post #8 of 346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2019, 12:00 PM
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Do they plan on not renewing more exporter contracts, or is it just going to stop at Richardson?
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post #9 of 346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2019, 12:10 PM
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I have a feeling they are the sacrificial lamb. Should put the fear of god (China) into prices and on the other hand buy low through whoever else can ship.
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post #10 of 346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2019, 12:40 PM
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They are the “Canadian” company, so I assume what’s why they have this pleasure.

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