Will recent events affect fertilizer prices? - Page 2 - The Combine Forum
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post #11 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-24-2019, 09:57 PM
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Very little NH3 was applied in the corn belt last fall and wet conditions do not appear to favor an early start this spring. There is only so much gas that can be moved logistically in a short time frame so many are leaning toward other nitrogen sources as 32% or urea, I forsee those markets to skyrocket shortly.


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post #12 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-24-2019, 09:57 PM
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The Canadian/US exchange rate will have infinitely more impact on spring fertilizer pricing than any change in Canadian fertilizer demand.


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post #13 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-24-2019, 10:48 PM
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I'm gunna bet it wont be a significant drop in price. Like fuel it goes down a tad over a long period of time and goes up substantially very quickly if suppliers can dream up any reason at all for it.
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post #14 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-25-2019, 12:07 AM
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Originally Posted by cptusa View Post
Very little NH3 was applied in the corn belt last fall and wet conditions do not appear to favor an early start this spring. There is only so much gas that can be moved logistically in a short time frame so many are leaning toward other nitrogen sources as 32% or urea, I forsee those markets to skyrocket shortly.
My area the one co-op said they got about 70% of the NH3 applied that was booked for the fall, so better than many areas of the corn belt but still below normal for here. I hope it pays off having prepaid my liquid fertilizer for corn back in early January when I could still capture the December price. Was able to get dry P, K and S fall spread here as well so should help. I got away from using any NH3 so unless liquid hits a snag shouldn't have to wait on anything for planting. The nearest co-op charges a bit more for fall NH3 than other areas, so would not be surprised if some farmers here move away from it as well.


Don't know about P and K, but I think N might shoot for the moon soon if everything starts at once. Chances are that a lot of urea and liquid N are already being delivered or are lined up, here it looks to be a bit later start again this spring, going to be at least 3 more weeks before things could go here if it stays warmer and we don't get any rain. Still plenty of snow laying around.
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post #15 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-25-2019, 10:08 AM
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That must have been a pretty good run, I'd venture to say 10-15% of normal acres were covered here. Booked my side dress 32% back in September and got the hog manure all on though it wasn't exactly perfect of decent conditions but I'm sitting pretty good, only 40 acres needs NH3 and I booked that in December.

Pretty sure the dry P and K is pretty well at or above normal, I don't see those markets moving all that much I just think N will take off when it gets moving.

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post #16 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-25-2019, 11:33 PM
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Lots of uncertainty out there yet. Flooding in the US has only just begun. Might be hope for Canadian commodities yet. Sucks how one persons suffering is beneficial to your own operation. Nitrogen under water disappears into the atmosphere and really kills the biology of the soil after long periods of time. Earthworms are gone in those fields. Any amount of rain will add to their misery and the water from Canadas snow melt hasn't arrived yet. Although water hasn't begun moving here yet and is going in the ground rather well. Demand will determine price usually. Problem is they can just stop making it to drive the price up.
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