Will recent events affect fertilizer prices? - The Combine Forum
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post #1 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-23-2019, 10:50 PM Thread Starter
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Will recent events affect fertilizer prices?

Full disclosure, I still haven't bought any fertilizer for 2019 crop year yet, just haven't seen any opportunities, or any reason to panic yet.

I realize that Canada's impact on the world market is insignificant, but if as many farmers cancel canola and replace it with less nutrient hungry crops, or lower their yield expectations, will this have enough affect on the fertilizer market to move prices?

Couple that with some acres in US flooded zones possibly not being seeded, or being later than usual, and winter wheat that didn't get top dressed due to wet weather, and the poor economics of many crops to American farmers.

Prices have been higher than justified most of the fall and winter, all indications are that they would fall towards the end to seeding, could it happen sooner?

According to farm futures, many port prices have been dropping, but the retail price has been stubbornly high.


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post #2 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-23-2019, 11:02 PM
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Local prices have been dropping a bit also.


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post #3 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-23-2019, 11:05 PM
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I wouldn't put too much merit on farmers not seeding canola. My guess is you will still see 20 plus million acres going in.
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post #4 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-23-2019, 11:12 PM Thread Starter
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I wouldn't put too much merit on farmers not seeding canola. My guess is you will still see 20 plus million acres going in.
Not sure how much stock to put in the anecdotal evidence either. I am for sure planting less, as are a few neighbours, a few posters here and Agriville are indicating they will be seeding less.
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post #5 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-23-2019, 11:18 PM
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I am putting in less as well. Down less than half of usual. Reason was for the lack of sub moisture here, and the cost of seed is pissing me off more this year.
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post #6 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-23-2019, 11:24 PM
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I don't honestly see prices dropping (for fertilizer) any time soon. I would imagine by now most retailers have got their needs booked and prices set, so no real wiggle room there unless they are willing to take the loss. We never really pre-buy fertilizer, but many will have already, and retailers have a good idea how much they need each year and would have a percentage of it already ordered. As far as canola acres changing, I don't see much of a change there, people talk about cutting back, but when the time comes, most will put in their usual acres. We are doing the same acres as we had planned for. Just as easily as canola took a hit, it can bounce back and another crop can take a hit. I see this canola ban as a temporary thing, until the next election, China's way of showing their displeasure with Trudeau. We are very fortunate that other countries aren't following suit as most other countries don't care all that much for him either.

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post #7 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-23-2019, 11:59 PM
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Friday I was told urea is moving up in price quickly and phos market is likely to bottom soon. This will be on direct loads from the south, doubt your market is any different. I wouldn't be waiting personally, anything Western Canada does is insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Wet conditions in the US could lead to some nitrogen losses that could exceed anything happening in Canada for example.

I'm fully bought but the last quote I had on urea which is a few weeks ago was $488 and 11-52 was $680/tonne, not sure where it is at today.

Some day the tough farm economy could lead to reduction in inputs, but expect that to be after some farm equipment dealers go broke. Current strategy seems to be to grow more to make things budget...
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post #8 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-24-2019, 02:32 PM
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canceled 1000 aces of canola, so much still in storage and no clue how long if ever China will be back.. Swap aces to barley and sell locally.. Tough moves for tough times
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post #9 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-24-2019, 03:22 PM
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I'm fully bought but the last quote I had on urea which is a few weeks ago was $488 and 11-52 was $680/tonne, not sure where it is at today.
Those prices seem pretty decent. We were same last August for urea, and phos was about $35 higher. This early Feb. we were sitting at $530 and $730, when I committed for rest.

Considering we have an Agrium plant only 10 miles away, Urea seems a little high locally.
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post #10 of 16 (permalink) Old 03-24-2019, 05:15 PM
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I was quoted $780 for phos.

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