China quits buying U.S grain - Page 2 - The Combine Forum
View Poll Results: Trump on China
Doing the art of the deal 57 56.44%
Complete fucking moron 44 43.56%
Voters: 101. You may not vote on this poll

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post #11 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 12:35 PM Thread Starter
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So tearing up trade agreements, backing out of signed treaties, throwing monkey wrenches into world markets makes China a poor trading partner but when Trump does it makes him an astute trading partner???

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post #12 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted by wavesofgrain View Post
Regardless of whether folks feel that Trump has the situation in hand, this situation is here to stay. When analyzing trade policy, every US president since since Nixon has sought a trade deal with China. There is also no argument that China's trade policies have been predatory and detrimental to fair world trade. With each passing administration, a deal would be negotiated and China would appear to cooperate only to back out at the last minute citing "a need to reevaluate". Then things would back to the way it had always been until the next administration. This has gone on for over 40 years. Letting them into the WTO was another attempt to show goodwill and to hopefully allow the international pressure of their WTO responsibilities to affect change. This too has been unsuccessful as China has been in violation of their WTO obligations from the start. For better or worse, the Trump administration is the first instance where China hasn't gotten what it wanted (a continuation of the status quo). Thus we are in uncharted territory from a policy standpoint. It is very likely that China will try to delay any meaningful negotiations until the 2020 elections are settled in hopes of a more favorable administration. There is concern in both countries. The concern here is obvious and doesn't need to be discussed further. China is dealing with an administration that it has no idea how to handle. The strategy that has worked for 40 years has not effected the result they want and they are deeply concerned. But they're not accustomed to giving in and will undoubtedly continue the stalemate until they see troubling enough economic indicators to end it.

This is a rough synopsis of my discussion with some of the US trade negotiators dealing with this at a recent meeting I was attending. I'm neither a Trump super fan or a Trump hater. I find both positions idiotic, annoying, and totally unproductive. Thus the rhetoric of "Complete F***ing moron" was not a choice I would pick. Trump is handling this the way he has conducted his business for his entire life. While I'm not saying this is necessarily a good thing, it should come as no surprise to anyone curious enough about the guy to read his book. So for now the new normal will dominate. The rhetoric levels will ratchet up and down. Markets will follow the talk. Trump haters will foam at the mouth and his fans will trumpet his genius. In the end, both sides are not accustomed to loosing and will go to extremes to win. This is here to stay folks, and neither side particularly cares what you think. So turn off the news, and have some coffee.
at least Trump is looking after the US interests, not like that dush in the east looking after the aga Khans and rockefellers and pi$$ing on the working middle class of the country he ruining

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post #13 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 01:35 PM
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So tearing up trade agreements, backing out of signed treaties, throwing monkey wrenches into world markets makes China a poor trading partner but when Trump does it makes him an astute trading partner???
Slight difference in renegotiating 20+ year old trade agreements and completely ignoring and manipulating trade agreements.
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post #14 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 03:13 PM
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So tearing up trade agreements, backing out of signed treaties, throwing monkey wrenches into world markets makes China a poor trading partner but when Trump does it makes him an astute trading partner???
So hows the white glove approach working for us in Canada? I don't care what anyone says we never played this nice with the Soviets as we do with red China. At some point you have to bloody the bullies nose.

Last edited by alta66; 08-06-2019 at 03:15 PM.
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post #15 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 05:31 PM
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Last year China stopped Aussie barley imports claiming we were dumping our barley and are having an inquiry into alleged dumping. Total BS as Australia has zero subsidies or support. From what I hear it is all about Australian opposition to China's increasing dominance in the South China sea.
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post #16 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 08:37 PM
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at least Trump is looking after the US interests, not like that dush in the east looking after the aga Khans and rockefellers and pi$$ing on the working middle class of the country he ruining
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Maybe our grandparents had it right about having a piss poor view of commies. Yet these days we are told we must love and defend the communist ideology and do all we can to support them. I wonder who has it right, our grandparents or the modern day policy writers.

In somewhat related news, Mnuchin and US Treasury has formally labeled China a currency manipulator which triggers a few mechanisms. Overnight China has denied the accusations as the Yuan has rebounded slightly as it is manipulated higher to prove the point that the currency is not manipulated to control trade.

Let's put it this way - Trudeau admires China.

How come are grandparents had so many different views than what is stated as normal these days.
Just this last Sunday night there was a very informative and interesting guest, Nial Ferguson, on the regular Life, Liberty, and Levin on Fox news. I believe Nial is a very smart guy and not biased apparently in any one direction for political gain. He has written something like 20 books, some of which I have read and thought were worthwhile. But the subject was China as a communist dictatorship and them becoming the new cold war enemy in world trade and defense. Nial stressed that the structure of the Chinese government does not allow changes of direction to the left or right as in NA politics and therefore will likely move farther away from our western right leaning views. Many young people which are the product of the education system and universities are moving farther to the left because of all the current employees and teachers that are slurping at the trough, not wanting to give up the gravy train they have helped to create. So we have this divide in philosophy and the outcome of that is highly variable, depending on the outcome of elections here. Not so in China. However Trump has given the average US citizen that knows how to balance his cheque book between what he earns at a job and what he spends, the ability to have a say in how they want this to go. That is a little piece of why our parents and grandparents had different opinions of how everything was supposed to work. The were not spending someone elses money. And they were not spending borrowed money. Money borrowed from China. Where does this escalation go when tariffs and trade disputes ramp up and China calls it's loans in? Is that when in Canada the powers that be enact that obscure law on the books that calls back all the land for "good of the many" and so they can appease what will be the biggest economy in the world in 5-10 years. Russia was only ever 40% of the size of the US economy. China is a becoming a looming threat in a new cold war. Very much greater than USSR ever was. Nial Ferguson says it much better than I can. I can't fix it but I would still like to know what is going on in this whole bit of history being made.
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post #17 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 11:36 PM
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I think there one other factor we forget when it comes to China. At its core the whole system is setup to maintain the regime as it stands. China I think looks back at how the USSR fell apart and shakes with fear at the thought. But I think it goes beyond that. China has a small problem that is rarely talked about in the secular media and that is the growth of Christianity. Something like a million converts a year. No matter your views on religion you have to admit that once that number reaches a critical mass the communist system will totally implode. So I am of the opinion that China fears the west not for what it can do to it economically but more for what it can do to it ideologically. Which is why it is so shocked at how the US and Trump has pushed back. Make no mistake China is going to hurt from the trade pressure which in turn only opens the door to civil unrest and imo it believes will come from the christian groups within. In reality China has positioned themselves much the same way Germany has within the EU, as the builder of things. The only problem with that is you always need to be able to sell those things to someone........
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post #18 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-07-2019, 01:12 AM
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As bad as it is for the US with trade. It sounds worse for Canada. While south America is getting rich and improving infrastructure that may start to compete with ours. This is the worst part for North American Ag trade. At least as I see it. I am no trade expert.
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post #19 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-07-2019, 02:21 AM Thread Starter
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https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUKKCN1UW0MQ

It's all good though, just tune into Trump's tweets! I guess as long as the american public is pleased to subsidize the farmer's while paying higher prices for their more expensive cheap Chinese crap then who cares!

Suppose there's an avenue or tool with the WTO to hold Trump responsible for screwing our market as well? Get in on some of that subsidy action!

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post #20 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-07-2019, 08:08 AM
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I don't mean to derail this thread but, having worked at a major telecommunications company 30+ years ago, I participated in two "trade missions" to China with the intent to sell re-manufactured telecom components to the Chinese government. Our team never felt good completing a deal, simply because AT THAT TIME the Chinese were famous for never fulfilling the terms and conditions of any agreement, much less if they followed through at all. Chinese business law stipulate that any agreement was only enforceable so long as the signing party maintained their position within the government, hence, whenever the signing party moved-up or moved-out of his position, ANY AND EVERY agreement signed by THAT official was deemed null and void. Don't like the deal? Fire the official! Simple as that!

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