China quits buying U.S grain - Page 5 - The Combine Forum
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post #41 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-09-2019, 09:20 AM
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Could be Kendo, in which case everyone figured that out right around Aug 1. And this China trade thing means absolutely nothing in the big scheme of things because prices never even flinched downwards on news of China stopping all buying of US grain products.

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post #42 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-09-2019, 09:30 AM Thread Starter
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Hyperventilating is one thing. Now that everyone who has a vested interest in grain markets have either had their heads explode or at least were running around with their hair on fire regarding China ending ALL US Ag imports - anyone notice grain futures are up?

Yes, in our free market capitalist society dependent on futures markets where China even cancelling some shipments of grain will drive a price lower, everyone has sold the crap out of grains because of nuclear bomb China dropped, and the prices go up.

Anyone have an explanation. I am looking at FinViz charts, are they wrong?
Charts????? Good grief the USDA came out with what looks like will be the worst crop in ten years. Imagine where the price would be if it was the best crop for that period.

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One thing I have to give credit to the Americans is their ability to screw up the Canadians trade relationship with the Chinese by requesting that we hold the Huawei girl for extradition to the US knowing that will piss the Chinese off and cut our ability to sell toHuawei them . It doesn't even seem like they are too interested in perusing her extradition .
Trump is on record saying he would use her as a bargaining chip for the trade deal!!!!!

Leaving us as chumps. And throwing dirt in the face of any of those that think it has anything to do with Huawei spying.

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post #43 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-09-2019, 01:43 PM
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Charts????? Good grief the USDA came out with what looks like will be the worst crop in ten years. Imagine where the price would be if it was the best crop for that period.
No, the USDA claims we have planted over 91 million acres of corn and only shave 10 BPA off average. Many insiders say this is 5-10 million acres more than are actually planted. USDA doesn't have a fucking clue. See what Monday's WASDE report says that supposedly includes June resurvey numbers to get more "accurate", of course they could just use the certified planted numbers that were reported by July 15, but what the ****, let's just grab a number out of the air.
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post #44 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-09-2019, 02:10 PM Thread Starter
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Granted the July WASDE was garbage. Monday should at least clear up what did get planted. If all the sudden 2-3 million more acres show up it’ll get a bit bearish. Even with that it’s hard to see how all that late corn is going to turn into more than a poor crop. Acres are up in the air but there’s a reasonable consensus that the crop isn’t great.

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post #45 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-09-2019, 03:21 PM
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I think people have known the crop isn't going to be great for some time now. The big money isn't sitting around waiting for a USDA report to finally confirm their thoughts.

But this brings us back to what some of us had been saying a year ago about China not buying US soys. It's all BS. If people want food they will buy it and it will move through countries to get there. And the price will move based on how big players want it to move. Soys are piling up and rotting in the US we are told. There is no market for them. China now says the are not buying any at all yet soys just had a good 2 days. So apparently news on who is/isn't buying is certainly not a driving force. Neither is soys piling up in an oversupply over the last 12 months.
Been an interesting week. Let's see how next week goes.
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post #46 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-10-2019, 11:44 AM
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I am currently in China. And guys, you have no idea what you are messing with. NY or LA look like a subburb of this chinese MegaCities.
And the people here eat everything. They don't need you corn, soy or wheat...
Btw, China is the biggest creditor of the US, holding more than a trillion of US $ bonds. They could should down somethings if they wanted...
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post #47 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-10-2019, 11:52 AM
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So what are we supposed to do just kneel and bow to our overlords.
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post #48 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-10-2019, 12:40 PM
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That is the narrative CP. Anyone that does not go out of their way to be subservient to China on any matter is said to be destructive to the needs of their own country. It is why we allow our capital to fly to China, export finished goods back home, destroy our local economies doing so, sell raw resources as cheap as possible to keep it going, absolutely no tariffs on anything China related, start the negotiations on China free trade deal (once again - communist governance) and even bend over to allow Chinas enterprises to set up shop here at home with even a smattering of allowing their workers to work as temporaryforeign workers in these shops here at home.

See, this is all necessary and good. The biggest economy and blah, blah, blah. Anyone who opposes that is bad because that person does not have their country's best interests in kind. Just ignore the reality of all that has transpired while being fully in compliance with China's desires.
Whatever China does with the Treasuries, it is the coordinated central banking scheme doing it. There is no independence. So that is how you understand who is doing what. There is no "China" is this situation. It is the central bank located in China but it is not representatives of China taking any such action. Every central bank demands complete independence from public influence so what does that say about "China" selling treasuries.

Even so, $1T pffft. The Federal Reserve just goes and credits $1T of 1s and 0s to the PBOC line and its a done deal. This stuff happens daily. Who bought the $3T of negatively yielding debt issued in the world the last few weeks? A bunch of retired people? Teachers unions? Pension funds? Caterpillar and Claas? No, the central banks did. They aren't audited and there is no oversight or control nor limits to what they can wish into existence. What is $1T of something created out of thin air and in infinite supply.
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post #49 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-10-2019, 12:52 PM
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I am currently in China. And guys, you have no idea what you are messing with. NY or LA look like a subburb of this chinese MegaCities.
And the people here eat everything. They don't need you corn, soy or wheat...
Btw, China is the biggest creditor of the US, holding more than a trillion of US $ bonds. They could should down somethings if they wanted...
So they dump them. What happens to the price of treasuries? Goes down. As you said they have an awful lot of them. They take quite a financial hit... Our interest rates go up. We both suffer economically but only if we want to borrow additional money. If we don't have to sell any more treasuries what does it matter what they are worth? They are on terms so the time is set that they need to be paid by.

So China puts aside it's economic welfare to accomplish some end. Why can't the US do the same thing? We can. And we have been spending the money from selling these treasuries building ships and weapons and whatever else congress keeps authorizing. Are we in a better position to protect our interests in South Korea and Taiwan because of our continued spending? Maybe, idk. If we start inflating our currency wouldn't that hurt the value of those treasuries that they own? Sure, we owe them money at some point but isn't the purpose of borrowing money to seize opportunity present now and hopefully be more enriched in the future? I'm not saying that's what our government is actually doing but in theory, ha.
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post #50 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-10-2019, 02:17 PM
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