China quits buying U.S grain - The Combine Forum
View Poll Results: Trump on China
Doing the art of the deal 59 56.19%
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post #1 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 03:31 AM Thread Starter
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China quits buying U.S grain

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ulture-imports

Meanwhile Brazilian and Argentine bean' farmer's CHA-CHING!


Last edited by joesixpack; 08-06-2019 at 03:34 AM.
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post #2 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 04:07 AM
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I don't know, but I suspect the Chinese economy is on thinner ice than we know, and Trump should have data we don't have. Trump, by a narrow margin.

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post #3 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 04:41 AM
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Its a complete non event. They weren't buying **** anyway. Get close to a deal, chicoms say they're going to buy x number of dollars in ag goods, weeks go buy and it stays at zero. Our goods float to China through other countries ports. 60% of Chinas pigs have died to ASF, they don't need our beans right now. They got a billion mouths to feed and don't care if a few die. They refuse to quit stealing intellectual property. They claim actions in good faith but **** on us in the end.

Edge to Trump but he's never dealt with people like this. At least he'll walk from a poor deal and not sell out the country again.

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post #4 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 05:50 AM
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Its a complete non event. They weren't buying **** anyway. Get close to a deal, chicoms say they're going to buy x number of dollars in ag goods, weeks go buy and it stays at zero. Our goods float to China through other countries ports. 60% of Chinas pigs have died to ASF, they don't need our beans right now. They got a billion mouths to feed and don't care if a few die. They refuse to quit stealing intellectual property. They claim actions in good faith but **** on us in the end.

Edge to Trump but he's never dealt with people like this. At least he'll walk from a poor deal and not sell out the country again.
Well said!!! I remember numerous times hearing about rejected grain shipments for some ridiculous reason.
It's about time we had a leader that didn't kiss Chinas ass!
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post #5 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 09:28 AM
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Well said!!! I remember numerous times hearing about rejected grain shipments for some ridiculous reason.
It's about time we had a leader that didn't kiss Chinas ass!

You should have been a wool grower in the nineties! Chinese buyers idea of a contract meant we are held to it but they could just drop it if the price moved and they could buy better. And now they are paying the price. 70% of woolgrowers quit and moved on and the price is now 3 times what the slimey bastards wouldnt pay then.
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post #6 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 10:13 AM
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Maybe our grandparents had it right about having a piss poor view of commies. Yet these days we are told we must love and defend the communist ideology and do all we can to support them. I wonder who has it right, our grandparents or the modern day policy writers.

In somewhat related news, Mnuchin and US Treasury has formally labeled China a currency manipulator which triggers a few mechanisms. Overnight China has denied the accusations as the Yuan has rebounded slightly as it is manipulated higher to prove the point that the currency is not manipulated to control trade.

Let's put it this way - Trudeau admires China.

How come are grandparents had so many different views than what is stated as normal these days.
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post #7 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 10:26 AM
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Regardless of whether folks feel that Trump has the situation in hand, this situation is here to stay. When analyzing trade policy, every US president since since Nixon has sought a trade deal with China. There is also no argument that China's trade policies have been predatory and detrimental to fair world trade. With each passing administration, a deal would be negotiated and China would appear to cooperate only to back out at the last minute citing "a need to reevaluate". Then things would back to the way it had always been until the next administration. This has gone on for over 40 years. Letting them into the WTO was another attempt to show goodwill and to hopefully allow the international pressure of their WTO responsibilities to affect change. This too has been unsuccessful as China has been in violation of their WTO obligations from the start. For better or worse, the Trump administration is the first instance where China hasn't gotten what it wanted (a continuation of the status quo). Thus we are in uncharted territory from a policy standpoint. It is very likely that China will try to delay any meaningful negotiations until the 2020 elections are settled in hopes of a more favorable administration. There is concern in both countries. The concern here is obvious and doesn't need to be discussed further. China is dealing with an administration that it has no idea how to handle. The strategy that has worked for 40 years has not effected the result they want and they are deeply concerned. But they're not accustomed to giving in and will undoubtedly continue the stalemate until they see troubling enough economic indicators to end it.

This is a rough synopsis of my discussion with some of the US trade negotiators dealing with this at a recent meeting I was attending. I'm neither a Trump super fan or a Trump hater. I find both positions idiotic, annoying, and totally unproductive. Thus the rhetoric of "Complete F***ing moron" was not a choice I would pick. Trump is handling this the way he has conducted his business for his entire life. While I'm not saying this is necessarily a good thing, it should come as no surprise to anyone curious enough about the guy to read his book. So for now the new normal will dominate. The rhetoric levels will ratchet up and down. Markets will follow the talk. Trump haters will foam at the mouth and his fans will trumpet his genius. In the end, both sides are not accustomed to loosing and will go to extremes to win. This is here to stay folks, and neither side particularly cares what you think. So turn off the news, and have some coffee.
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post #8 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 12:14 PM
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I agree with everything there Waves. Even about being pro/anti Trump. It is all noise, turn the tv off. What was missed in those details is the big picture view, the one that starts 41 years ago (referencing the 40 year), the view that says this is all BS because these things of fair trade, WTO, meaningful negotiations, trade agreements is a non starter when it is a communist country. You can't make it happen - ever. Because a communist country by definition and operation can not operate in a sphere of fair trading.

Let me quote this from linked article as this basic truth has existed for decades:
China needs to aggressively address market-distorting forces, including subsidies and state-owned enterprises, enhance social safety nets to support greater household consumption growth, and rebalance the economy away from investment. Improved economic fundamentals and structural policy settings would underpin a stronger RMB over time and help to reduce China’s trade surplus with the United States.

The very first line says everything. Anything else ever said about trade agreements, negotiations, mutual benefits as trading partner, blah, blah, blah is all BS when we first understand what principle a communist country follows - because that principle is the FUNDAMENTAL principle of communist government. Reread that first line again.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...cy-manipulator

So yes, turn off the TV, have a coffee. Things may get painful, I don't know. But understand what is BS first and foremost before debating how to resolve a trade war and become a "good trading partner" with a country whose very ideology means it never can be.
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post #9 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 12:30 PM Thread Starter
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Bury your head in the sand is the answer? So your enjoying that cup of coffee meanwhile:

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-08...101448063.html

"chinese-farmers-are-growing-soybeans-in-russia-as-china-substitutes-us-suppliers"
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post #10 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-06-2019, 01:10 PM
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Well, unless you are going to go to Hong Kong protests or perhaps do Tiananmen Square part 2 and get communist China to become capitalist, then yes - everything else is pissing in the wind. The alternative is to accept a communist country is not going to engage is "fair trade" and so move on to trading with countries who will.

Or you can take the liberal approach and say "well they are fuking us everyway including sideways, but we enjoy it and will keep doing so". Reference Justin Trudeau on that.

But yes, Justins approach is working well. We sell them stuff, they buy our stuff. More and more businesses fall victim to communists, debt goes higher, welfare state increases. But, WINNING! Because we do it knowing we are being screwed. Ya, we sure showed those commies.



I got a better idea to that article. Let's sell them farmland in North America and let them do it more. Or how about that Yan Coal potash mine that was proposed north of Regina. The one 100% owned by China where they would own all the production, direct ship to port and across the ocean to China. Thus not only cutting out the benefits of local ownership but replacing some production of local potash.



I could probably get into a few other examples of China owned businesses in Canada that are operating and Chinese citizens are working at those places as temporary foreign workers but not much point. As long as the money flows it is all good and desired.


So until we start asking WTF our government is doing with negotiations on trade to form equal trading with a communist ideology then you may as well go have a coffee. Or hope our country does magically create fair trade with commies. The unicorn and lollipop world view we can call it.

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