nothing on the USDA report - The Combine Forum
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post #1 of 8 (permalink) Old 08-13-2019, 02:16 PM Thread Starter
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nothing on the USDA report

No threads on the USDA report. It was so bad we don't even talk about it. Yep... Limit down, 27 down I have not even read it. Don't think I need to.

Just had a meeting with my banker. That was horrible timing.

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post #2 of 8 (permalink) Old 08-13-2019, 02:42 PM
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It started to kindle on another thread.


God Bless America
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post #3 of 8 (permalink) Old 08-13-2019, 03:06 PM
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From what I can tell the main surprise was an increase in the estimated total corn production. Which by itself isn't too problematic but when it's combined with softening demand (the real problem here), it makes for some bearish markets. Trade companies think the total number is much lower than the USDA estimate. Clearly the "market" isn't sure what is really true for now.

Clearly this report has affected a lot of American farms and farmers. Can one of you guys south of border comment on how it's negatively affected your operation? Short-term and long-term effects?

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post #4 of 8 (permalink) Old 08-13-2019, 04:26 PM
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post #5 of 8 (permalink) Old Yesterday, 11:05 PM
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Captain USA, What happened to all the prevent acres in the USDA report, Seems to me the USDA is manipulating the acreage (like they always do)to avoid a sharp movement that might scare off the few potential customers left that might buy US grains. Have things gotten so much better over the last 3 weeks or is it still poor like the crop ratings report state. Pretty amazing the USDA can predict 48.5 bushel soybeans when same states have soybeans a little over ankle high. It just doesn't make sense! Whats your take on the Usda report.
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post #6 of 8 (permalink) Old Today, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Oat King View Post
Captain USA, What happened to all the prevent acres in the USDA report, Seems to me the USDA is manipulating the acreage (like they always do)to avoid a sharp movement that might scare off the few potential customers left that might buy US grains. Have things gotten so much better over the last 3 weeks or is it still poor like the crop ratings report state. Pretty amazing the USDA can predict 48.5 bushel soybeans when same states have soybeans a little over ankle high. It just doesn't make sense! Whats your take on the Usda report.
No there has not been a dramatic improvement over the last month. the USAD report is total bullshit plain and simple.

1. FSA reporting north of 11 million prevent plant corn acres the USDA is not recognizing yet unless they are going to claim we intended to plant 101 million acres of corn which would be the largest by over 7 million acres... nope.

2. Claiming the national yield at 169.5. Last years yield was 176.4, the largest national yield ever and very believable as the crop was mostly put in on time in ideal conditions and had perfect growing weather for 95% of the nation. Shaving a mere 7 bpa off this crop is not even close. Insurance adjusters and crop scouts in my area, one of the better areas, are predicting 30-50 bpa less then last year.

3. Due to budget cuts NASS has not even sent out field scouts to do accurate yield estimates.

4. We know 20-30 million acres of this corn crop was planted in June. IF it makes it to maturity June corn does not yield like April corn, no way possible.

5. In the USDA report corn planted is corn planted no matter what. If you planted 140 acres in a 160 acre farm and left 20 acres out because its too wet you still planted 160 acres. Normally this is a marginal issue but with widespread issues this year its a major issue. Also corn planted for cover crop on prevent plant acres is counted as corn planted. Rules for that were corn had to be in no wider than a 15" row and planted at a minimum 50,000 population. That's silage corn, it will not make an ear.

6. Every seed company has had record seed returns this year, they are all saying there was not enough seed used to plant 90 million acres.

In summary I believe the Indigo report I posted to be closer to accurate. I think we are starting around the 83 million acres planted mark and shrinking from there. But the trade goes off the USDA which I bet will correct the bushels in the January report to give the market a bump that will be suppressed by a ridiculously large planting intentions number for the 2020 crop at trend line yields. I've said before they don't want another 2012 run away market and they are going to do their best to control it.
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post #7 of 8 (permalink) Old Today, 08:49 PM
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The ProFarmer crop tour starts next week. I wonder how much corn will be far enough along to get good yield guesses?
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post #8 of 8 (permalink) Old Today, 09:12 PM
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With the RINS waivers being handed out like participation trophies at school field day and reductions on the fed and exported side, no matter what the acreage number I think there will be lots of corn left over at the end of the year. By this time next year I believe that the consumption number may be the more interesting/concerning one.
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