Originally Posted by C6100 are the go
We are hearing mixed reports about the US wheat crop down here in Australia.... the USDA is reporting or claiming its big crop and progressing well.....and then when i speak to blokes on the ground there like contractors actaully harvesting and some farmers, they are giving the complete opposite message....that is that it is really bad and in some areas worst in many years. What's going on over there??
Can any wheat farmers in the USA share some of their yields and let us know what is actually happening over there? FYI we have just finished planting here about 6 weeks ago
The notion that the US has one wheat crop is somewhat misplaced.
Wheat is grown, to some extent, in almost every state. There are numerous major production areas, accounting for nearly half of the states. The US produces six different classes of wheat and, in each of the major producing regions, one class tends to be the major (in some cases, the only) type of wheat which is grown. So, it could be said that the US actually has several wheat crops.
If you look at this table
, you will see that, over the last three years, planted acres, harvested acres and total production have not varied much from year to year. This is because poor yields in one region tend to be offset by good crops in other regions. Since wheat is grown, literally, from coast to coast in this country, and in so many different climatic zones, there is little chance for the whole of US wheat acres to be adversely affected by the weather.
That's one of the reasons why government reports aren't taken too seriously by anyone but commodity traders (and not even all of them). Most people know that, at the end of the year, the US will once again have produced around 2 billion bushels of wheat. There isn't much question about how much we will grow. The big variable is where it will go.
We're about a month away from winter wheat harvest here (right on the Canadian border). Our spring wheat probably won't go until the end of August. I'm guessing that WW will probably come in around 40-50 bushels/acre. The spring wheat could be close to that if we get one more good rain in July. I don't expect our yields to move the market. Montana doesn't seem to be in the USDA's script.