Grain marketing What Do You Do? - Page 2 - The Combine Forum
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post #11 of 16 (permalink) Old 07-18-2013, 07:35 PM
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I will dis-agree slightly with the cost-of-production theory. If a crop is consistently returning less than COP then you should stop growing it if you can or figure out why you aren't growing enough. Most field crops are well above COP on a normal year now because of the last half-dozen years of high prices.

My theory is to maximize production and to use whatever means reasonable to do this, always evaluating ROI for each input. For marketing I try to maximize revenue. That starts with bin storage for the whole crop to negotiate better basis levels, although there have been some decent basis levels off-combine in recent years (every year is different). I like to look at charts but I don't profess to be an expert at them. I like to get a sense of where prices are historically and when charts are at recent highs or "areas of upward resistance". That is often a good time to sell. Price might go higher but not selling it all at once will give you more to sell later. In recent years markets are cycling quite frequently so you often get second chances if patient.

I agree that when every "expert" seems to be agreeing that maybe caution is advised. Most people are just echoes and the REAL experts usually keep their mouths shut.

I market grain year-round but schedule winter deliveries because that is when I have time to deliver it. Time constraints may be an influence for your situation as well.

One could discuss this topic for a long time.

Good website here: Barchart.com - Commodity, stock and forex; quotes, charts & analysis


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post #12 of 16 (permalink) Old 07-19-2013, 02:02 AM
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If any of us were good enough marketers to answer your question we wouldn't need to farm.





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post #13 of 16 (permalink) Old 07-19-2013, 02:09 AM
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Originally Posted by SWMan View Post
My theory is to maximize production and to use whatever means reasonable to do this, always evaluating ROI for each input. For marketing I try to maximize revenue.
I think this is very good advice and do this as well. Even if it takes 4 passes with the sprayer...
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post #14 of 16 (permalink) Old 07-19-2013, 04:29 AM
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Originally Posted by farmertim1 View Post
I been farming for four years and been coasting on marketing my grain. So i would like to hear what you do and learn something. Where do you go for news that affect the grain movements and price. Do you use technicals and charts when the market is over sold or bought? Who do you think that is good at describing where the markets are going? When do you decide to make a basis contract or to do a futures contract. When do you hedge? What are good websites to check out?

Thanks alot
Here are few tips:
1.Understand the limitations of price forecasting.
2.Understand and follow the grain markets closely
3.Be familiar with the grain marketing terminology
4.Be familiar with the types of marketing alternatives offered
5.Have a thoughtful written marketing plan.
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post #15 of 16 (permalink) Old 07-20-2013, 01:55 AM
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build a few key relationships with a few grain buyers in your area and maybe one that sees a larger area outside of yours. they will be more in the loop than ANY experts you can hire. they have no reason to lie to you as you will not take your business back if they do

do not pay anyone $2- $4 or whatever an acre. they are guessing and just regurgitate what you can find on your own. infact i see some class actions coming down the pipe for some of these "EXPERTS"
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post #16 of 16 (permalink) Old 07-20-2013, 02:19 AM
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We're pretty much old school. We try to sell for more than it took to produce, hope we can get by the weather/pests/unintended wrecks each year, and, if not, hope for a better year next year. So far so good

Also we've developed some good local markets through the many years
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