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post #14 of (permalink) Old 12-12-2018, 07:50 PM
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Its looking at one side of the coin. Futures trading with cash settlements is said to prevent an entity from cornering the market. Fair enough. So Canada is looking to be getting in to a situation of short on barley supply right now, lets say barley is sold out in Canada. Can you still buy and sell futures as if there is an infinite supply of barley? There is indeed an infinite supply of paper contracts. So, how can this be "price discovery"? It is not. It is simply trading what one person feels is the price of a piece of paper with another person who thinks that piece of paper is worth a different value.

As i say, the futures market is one thing, but to beleive cash settlements of contracts so that the supply of the actual commodity is totally lost in the volume of paper contracts is not how you realize true price discovery. When a future contract is written for delivery of, say 10,000 tons and only amount of the commodity is traded then we have a proper system. When you offer 100,000T and from that 1MT of paper contracts are created and destroyed then it is very hard to argue "price discovery". But here we are.

Just so we are clear, everyone thinks infinite supply of paper contracts is good for price discovery?
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