2019 Drought in Prairies - Page 24 - The Combine Forum
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post #231 of 419 (permalink) Old 06-13-2019, 05:27 PM
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An inexpensive weather station


I will charge you $6,000 a year to record the data and monitor your stone

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post #232 of 419 (permalink) Old 06-13-2019, 06:20 PM
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80% of 25-35 mm forecast here in the next day or so. We shall see. It is extremely dry in our area which is a huge change from the norm. Crops are living on reserve soil moisture, and have been sitting still developing roots for quite some time to stay alive. Crossing my fingers for rain for everyone.
Keeping with the long standing tradition of threads getting hijacked ...........
I’m wondering if your Canadian weather forecasters use the same procedure or processes insofar as % chance of rain etc. etc.?
The pic is from a question I posed to a weather forecaster in OZ. So here you’re saying they forecast an 80% chance of 25-35mm. I’m thinking this means you have a much less chance than the 80% quoted.



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post #233 of 419 (permalink) Old 06-13-2019, 06:24 PM
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post #234 of 419 (permalink) Old 06-13-2019, 11:38 PM
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Kills me when you look at the bottom of the page on WeatherNet and a partly cloudy day has a forecast precip. of 2 mm, but the following rainy day is predicted to be less than 1 mm.
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post #235 of 419 (permalink) Old 06-14-2019, 10:05 AM
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Wow, how do weather prediction people keep a job? Went from 80% 25-35 mm to 60% 5-10mm last night for todays weather to now 40% of nothing lol. Do these people just do this for humor or what is the scoop. They must get paid by someone to crush peoples hopes but leave you hanging on saying it is going to rain in 3 days again. A monkey could do better I am sure with the data they have.
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post #236 of 419 (permalink) Old 06-14-2019, 10:54 AM
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Well, today looks like the big day here according to prediction maps, might get some rain. Have the party hats out and snacks on the table. Got about 1/10 over a couple days early in week. Still waiting on mustard and flax to germinate because my mustard is around 1 per 15. 1 plant in 15 sq m. Easy to find seeds not germinated so still hoping. Will be interesting how SCIC plays the "established crop" angle come June 20th. Put Edge down because there is no real way to deal with broadleafs in crop and that approach relies entirely on the mustard getting established and then suppress the weeds later. But when weeds are well advanced that kind of throws everything out the window. And we have endless studies on early seeding and increased yield so curious to see if crop insurance considers that if I do get a bunch of seedlings popping up come June 20th.
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post #237 of 419 (permalink) Old 06-14-2019, 10:56 AM
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I wonder what the percentage of actual rain we get compared to what is predicted 3-7 days in advance? Im guessing we would be lucky to get 10-15% of what is predicted.
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post #238 of 419 (permalink) Old 06-14-2019, 12:02 PM
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I think there may be correlation between farmers' liking/believing weather forecast and what weather people have in their immediate area. For this small area of West Central AB the weather this yr is already different than last yr. Do not get me wrong, we still could be too hot and too dry by end of August and doubt we could be too wet by than, but we caught .25" in a thunderstorm yesterday that we would never catch last yr coming directly from the west(instead of the counterclockwise or clockwise moving stuff all last yr that could go around either way) and would almost say it would seem like that pattern will continue over next few days. Noted from Don's Environment Canada post that this same system definitely dumped something east of here as well so hopefully that carries on further east where would seem people really need it. I may even get more excited and spend bit more money on this crop come fungicide season if trend continues.

I do not know how bad our crops would look around here with moisture that gets talked about on here as oilseed crops I was looking at were on edge of being decimated by flea beetles and I was on "Edge" of wondering how much more advanced the hemp nettle(Edge is supposed to suppress) could be than the mustard before I would have to close my eyes for the rest of the Summer.

The other change that could become more significant as we move forward is that our heat units are still tracking at least 10% behind previous 5 years average even though we have not been as "cold" as some of the posts from other areas.

It is interesting to see posts from this drought 2019 thread on viability of thin stands of canola under poor conditions vs what tends to get talked about under good conditions. Maybe it will get people believing what planter folk been talking about for sometime that our "normal" planting rates under "normal" conditions are way too high and only good for folks selling the seed.
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post #239 of 419 (permalink) Old 06-14-2019, 05:40 PM
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Farming the “Forcast Rain” would make me a “ much Better” farmer, than what the reality ends up being!
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post #240 of 419 (permalink) Old 06-14-2019, 05:59 PM
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Scic adjusts their write off according to crop conditions.

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