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I have did some pricing for next fall and regret some stuff I have done but with hindsight it's always easy to beat yourself up. Captured only some of the high prices right now, as bills have to be paid and grain movement has to happen in the fall for many expenses. $6 feed barley right now at our Olymel feed mill for pigs. NICE!! But of course moved mine much earlier on. Can get $5.50 feed barley for Nov P&H. I captured 10,000 bu of that and did 10,000 at $4.50 a lot earlier. I got 10,000 bu of canola @ $12.25 for Nov as well. I kind of wish I didn't buy my canola early like I did (which I usually never do). I bought 600 acres worth which if I put in barley instead would have cut my expenses huge and made a better profit on. Waaayyy less risk as well from bugs/ disease etc. I seeded 110 acres of winter wheat last yr and that is the only wheat I will be growing. Wonder what the wheat canola guys will be doing this yr lol? Maybe nobody will grow wheat and make a shortage? My decision right now should be fairly easy. Price lots more barley and seed the rest into it. I have fertilized for 75 bu canola on my 600 acres with 40lbs actual phos with avail, and 25 S and 20 K and 130lbs N. Going to add another 40 N and 35actual phos with avail to seed during seeding. A pile of money has been spent to grow what hopefully will be an excellent canola crop. Add the money I have spent as well as the $68/acre seed cost I need one heck of a crop to get the same return on much cheaper to seed barley. Again hindsight is always hard on a guy. Yellow peas were $10 Scoular called the other day. I had a bag of them and sold at $9 to Viterra. 1 week and $10,000 difference. Who would have thought!! Peas at Scoular you could price for $8.75 for fall and I never bit. My rotation can handle an all barley scenario and been pushing legumes pretty hard for several yrs so I am going to let it slide. Are many others thinking like me with barley? Capturing 50 bu/acre now for fall on all my barley acres looks good but if everyone jumps on board will the remainder of my barley be $3?
 

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I have did some pricing for next fall and regret some stuff I have done but with hindsight it's always easy to beat yourself up. Captured only some of the high prices right now, as bills have to be paid and grain movement has to happen in the fall for many expenses. $6 feed barley right now at our Olymel feed mill for pigs. NICE!! But of course moved mine much earlier on. Can get $5.50 feed barley for Nov P&H. I captured 10,000 bu of that and did 10,000 at $4.50 a lot earlier. I got 10,000 bu of canola @ $12.25 for Nov as well. I kind of wish I didn't buy my canola early like I did (which I usually never do). I bought 600 acres worth which if I put in barley instead would have cut my expenses huge and made a better profit on. Waaayyy less risk as well from bugs/ disease etc. I seeded 110 acres of winter wheat last yr and that is the only wheat I will be growing. Wonder what the wheat canola guys will be doing this yr lol? Maybe nobody will grow wheat and make a shortage? My decision right now should be fairly easy. Price lots more barley and seed the rest into it. I have fertilized for 75 bu canola on my 600 acres with 40lbs actual phos with avail, and 25 S and 20 K and 130lbs N. Going to add another 40 N and 35actual phos with avail to seed during seeding. A pile of money has been spent to grow what hopefully will be an excellent canola crop. Add the money I have spent as well as the $68/acre seed cost I need one heck of a crop to get the same return on much cheaper to seed barley. Again hindsight is always hard on a guy. Yellow peas were $10 Scoular called the other day. I had a bag of them and sold at $9 to Viterra. 1 week and $10,000 difference. Who would have thought!! Peas at Scoular you could price for $8.75 for fall and I never bit. My rotation can handle an all barley scenario and been pushing legumes pretty hard for several yrs so I am going to let it slide. Are many others thinking like me with barley? Capturing 50 bu/acre now for fall on all my barley acres looks good but if everyone jumps on board will the remainder of my barley be $3?
Thinking the same way , $5.75 Dec Barley at G3 Wetaskwin, usually seed oats and no barley but can only find 3.30 fall Oats , maybe time to seed Barley , even 7.21$ feed wheat feb 2021 del.,the other day would still need 64 bushels to equal equal 85 bushel barley in the fall ??? ..A Barley contract in hand is way better then hoping on Wheat.
 

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Yes to BLY and canola..Wht still lagging behind..
Many more Bly acres and cutting way back on wht..
Feed or malt doesnt matter we priced some of each..Need early movement so have to get on the list...
 

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Don’t beat yourself up over it. Last year I didn’t forward price any of my canola except for basis on half of my canola acres that’s nexera. Not out of marketing genius just pure laziness. 17.25 nexera warms the heart.

That said locked in a lot of 3.50 Quaker Oats so you can’t win them all. Quaker isn’t exactly coming to the table either vs 5.50 feed barley or wheat.
 

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I have a strong feeling this is going to be a very rollercoaster year. China is driving prices way beyond normal, rebuilding the hog herd, feed prices are outpacing human consumption grains. Once they have there stocks in line, I think they will put the brakes on hard and prices will crash back fast. If I was pricing, I think I would be inclined to look at more nearby bids than ride out to see what happens. But that is just me, I liked to have costs covered before putting seed in the ground.
 

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Excellent time to cash in on call options or buy put options on new crop prices. I agree with lurker18s crystal ball .!2007 and 2012 -2014 had similar price run ups to only fall in a matter of days. I also think its wise to stick to your rotation.
 

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Oat prices aren’t following the craziness as the others. Oats knows. Same boat with crop plans. Feed barley price is attractive to seed more but I’ve seen this show before. I’ll stick with half canola and divide the other half between cereals and forage.
 

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Excellent time to cash in on call options or buy put options on new crop prices. I agree with lurker18s crystal ball .!2007 and 2012 -2014 had similar price run ups to only fall in a matter of days. I also think its wise to stick to your rotation.
Good luck buying options at reasonable price today. Nobody wants to get hung today. There’s just as much risk this sells off as goes up today. Some commercials have very little coverage on and weather looks like it could be dry in NA.
 

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So why is chinia buying so much?
Are they going to refuse shipments like they have done in the past?
Are they going to sell and not even take delivery?
I sure don't trust much that they do...
 

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Discussion Starter #10
I am thankful we can take advantage of this right now. Even if it is dry where I live, which it rarely is, pricing 1/2 my yield right now makes sense. Anything can happen but covering your costs is crucial. Not pricing now waiting for a price plummet towards summer is scary. There is money to be made with prices like these, it's just a matter of risk with mother nature. We can't control that ever but pricing at a time like this lets me sleep at night.
 

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Something else to think about is that something like 40% of all the US dollars were printed in the last year. Canadian dollar and many other currencies had lots of new supply added. This really shows up in the stock market.

Think back to the big crash in 2007 ish, they printed a lot of money and magically grain prices went from $4 wheat to $6 wheat and have stayed there and $3 barley rose to $4 and stayed there.

With the extra money barley should really be $6+ all the time now and wheat $8, canola $12, etc. It is just taking a while for inflation to hit every commodity and every country supplying grains. The catch on this is that fertilizer, chemical, machinery, etc is also ready for a big run up in prices again. Once that happens the higher grain prices won't look so great.

Not sure how the Chinese Yuan compares to US$ or CDN$, but perhaps our grains are actually cheaper than normal for them in Chinese Yuan, and that is why they are buying so much.
 

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The bigger question for us in the south is will we be able to grow anything with the extremely dry conditions. In our area I do not know if there would be enough moisture in the soil to even germinate the crop. There is zero sub soil moisture and the ground is as dry as I have ever seen it. There could be a chunk of western Canada that does not produce much unless it rains. I think this will affect the prices especially if the drought persists.
 

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It will take some significant precipitation to bring that patch of red around. Seems to me that’s been a few year run of just in time kinda rains. Hell even here in the NE was on the dry side.
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These prices should make for an interesting crop insurance what-if sheet this year.
 

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These prices should make for an interesting crop insurance what-if sheet this year.
[/QUOTE]
Sask crop insurance will suck. They always pick the absolute lowest posted price not the price you can get
 

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With prices headed up inputs will follow as demand increases. Fertilizer and fuel already trending upward. The foo foo dust sales pitch will be in full force soon. No farm shows to peddle them at. It will be interesting to see what the latest greatest is.

Moisture isn’t as bad my way as it has been in other years heading into spring. We’re used to being dry. Plan for long term average yields.
 

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No change in the rotation, only changes are based on agronomy (few fabas where peas would be normally). We have done some pricing for fall but other than first bit of yellow peas ($9) its all in the options market (leaves it open to sell to whatever company is best basis/movement/specs etc). Did secure some canola basis, $-5 for Nov/Dec which to me is a no brainer if wanting to move some canola, have never seen it that low for Nov/Dec delivery...maybe it will get better than that but doubting it.
Options market for hrs wheat, leaves the ability to haul to whoever has the best protein or grade spread.
Grow 20% of rotation in oats but won't be pricing anything until I see a 4 at the beginning of the price, I think new crop will get there but may take a bit yet.
Fabas, minor acreage so will wait and see what happens.
No barley
 

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Oat prices aren’t following the craziness as the others. Oats knows. Same boat with crop plans. Feed barley price is attractive to seed more but I’ve seen this show before. I’ll stick with half canola and divide the other half between cereals and forage.
You could lock in $4 Jan 2022 oats here this morning. Can do $3.50-3.75 off the combine
 
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