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This is not a forcast, just seems like the potential is growing. I have traveled across much of central and Southern Alberta and for this time of year it is very dry. I have heard parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are dry as well. I personally am sick of mud from the last number of years, but don't like the looks of the growing red zones of soil moisture maps. I know crops aren't lost in April, just talking potential.
 

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No moisture to speak off since November. Hell most of Alberta had very little snow fall
 

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I am North east of Shebly, MT. I went soil sampling a few days ago. Stubble is very dry 6-10" down. Fallow is good moisture every place I checked. Will need rain. It looks fairly normal for my area. We did have zero run off into my ponds. Little snow this winter. Snow has never made me a crop. I have seen it wreck a few crops.
 

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3 years of progressively worse dryness for me, I predict another bad dry year here. Crops sucked last year, it has been 40 years since our 80's drought that took out most farmers, and 40 years before that the dirty thirties.
I have a very bad feeling that our super dry years are back for their cycle.
Magpies were building nests in the middle of March here, Never saw that before.
 

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Probed some non-irrigated ground and was pleasantly surprised that there was moisture there. The way the wind has been howling, I was pretty sure it would be dry down a few inches at least. I definitely have enough moisture to germinate a crop. Could use a good rain in the next few weeks, though. Soil is sure cold. We'll start seeding lentils on Monday.
 

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Way way overdue for crop wreck in western Canada. It’s been 19 years since last significant drought year. After last 10 plus years of Mud off and on I’ll take drought any day. Way way cheaper to farm in a drought.
 

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I'm concerned like many others, it may be a dry year, or in two weeks it could be so wet we'll be complaining about that.

Back in 1981 I came home from College in late March and thought I would have to come back and work the SF so it wouldn't blow, we had 2-3 feet of snow that weekend. Don't worry about it, what comes we have no way of knowing and no control of.

Now if I could take my own advice I could sleep better.:D
 

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It’s pretty obvious you haven’t farmed in a real drought.
So not taking Combines out of the shed wouldn’t count then?

Nothing grows in mud either. But it takes years to fix soil compaction, washouts, weeds and that’s if you don’t wreck drills, floaters, trucks and combines on top of it.
 

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Planting a bushel of oats per acre and getting back two bushels is not doubling your money and it isn’t farming, bin there and done that.
 

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I remember cutting and bailing the summer fallow, nothing but weeds, hoping for a second cut, not even enough moisture for half a bale an acre.
 

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30 miles from here they combined 7bu durum last year. Canola sub 10.

-What fertilizer rate do you put down to optimize net income?
-How many acres should a guy rent to "spread the fixed costs" out on a year like that?
-What $/ac should you target for equipment payments and leases?
-How many $/ac over total acres should a guy budget for land payments?

-rocks gutting rotors chasing ankle high crops.
-smashed headers
-second growth and third growth that you decide to swath and it either blows away or falls through the nonexistent stubble and you cant pick it up.
-wildfires destroying aboveground trash and soil that wont sit still afterwards... buried fencelines, precious topsoil filling ditches.

Its "dreamy"...
 

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In our area, we have been getting perpetually drier since 2016. 2017 came from 2016 submoisture.....progressively worse every year. The only thing constant since 2016 has been an increase in winds. We are seeing it again this year. I am pulling my horns in again and hunkering down - reminds me of late 70s/80s where winds blew and moisture evaporated. Will be toning down potential inputs like fertilizer - I do hope I am wrong!
 
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Know a guy that moved to Montana to farm. From Minnesota. He agrees that he would rather farm drought than mud. Weeds still grow in mud he says. He has never had a drought here yet. Not even close. Gets 2-3 times the rain fall I do every year.
 

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From Manitoba, it has been pretty dry here. We got a bit of snow March 30th, but otherwise dry.
 

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Don’t think I had enough run off to fill a tolet bowl lol
 
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