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I came off a rough 2021. Canaola net 22 abd wheat might net 30 but waiting to haul to finalize numbers. With the amount i precontracted, i have learned a tough lesson this year. Do not sell what you do not possess. That being said i should have larger carrover fertilizer as i applied enough for a 50 bushel crop but got a 20. Do we pay the $70 cents per N nh3 bill and $1150 per tonne s10 bill and hope this years canola grows? Or do i use the carryover and try for a breakeven year with minimal inputs? Scic will not offer enough coverage to bail out a farmer with $70 acre rent to $135 per jug transorb hc coupled with the new normal fertilizer prices. If canola stays at $20 all is great, but if it hits $10 well. The farm might fold. Whats the answer to be successful in 2022?
 

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Wow, count yourself lucky. We averaged 9 bpa on canola and 24 on wheat.
Buying out contracts was our experience. Having 34 bushels of oats weighing 205 grams it was a total buyout. Sure guys saying you don't sell what you don't have, we always did and we always had good luck with it. Lesson learned as well.
Most of our soil sample game back with 120~165 lbs left. So it will be starter and have sprayer ready to topdress. Bought our phosphate in June like we always do. Have nh3 booked for soy stubble. The thing to do for 2022 is puts imo. As for glyphosate its still cheaper than other chemicals, they will go up as well. We seen it in 2012 tot 2013 record inputs and lower prices following.
$70 rent 馃槀馃槀馃槀 $100 don't touch nothing here.
 

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I'm leaning towards growing crops that require less N (eg malt barley instead of wheat, flax instead of canola, etc.) That said, I won't do anything too different. I'll still have some wheat and canola.
 

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Man I don鈥檛 know what鈥檚 going to be the deal with crop insurance this coming season. Might be a whole re-vamp or cap. Where prices look to be at when they market index pretty much guarantees an insane profit on our farm next year.
We鈥檙e putting down as much gas right now as ever.
 

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Premiums on crop insurance will at least double I would think to keep pace with other inputs on the farm. I am really intrigued what Manitoba crop insurance will use for prices on crops. I am not going to stop forward contracting or be afraid to stick my neck out when prices are high. I have done a fair amount already for next harvest and and I agree with windmill , I think puts are a good idea to protect the down side risk. One thing I did learn was forward price small amounts of grain instead of too many at once. The best forward contract this year besides selling off the combine was a pace setter contract with viterra. My rotation of oats, canola and soybeans wont change at all. Really enjoyed this year and cant wait till spring. Unfortunately , land prices have really jumped here in the red river valley. 8000 an acre was reported for river lot land where last year it fetched 6200.
Inflation will continue to be the story and I think the farming sector will be a profitable game to be in unless high interest reveals its ugly head!!
 

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Man I don鈥檛 know what鈥檚 going to be the deal with crop insurance this coming season. Might be a whole re-vamp or cap. Where prices look to be at when they market index pretty much guarantees an insane profit on our farm next year.
We鈥檙e putting down as much gas right now as ever.
Crop insurance is yield coverage not dollar coverage.

We could all grow 40-45bu Canola and lose are shirts in 2022.

How many farms are going to be able to Cash flow 450-550 to grow Canola.
 

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I came off a rough 2021. Canaola net 22 abd wheat might net 30 but waiting to haul to finalize numbers. With the amount i precontracted, i have learned a tough lesson this year. Do not sell what you do not possess. That being said i should have larger carrover fertilizer as i applied enough for a 50 bushel crop but got a 20. Do we pay the $70 cents per N nh3 bill and $1150 per tonne s10 bill and hope this years canola grows? Or do i use the carryover and try for a breakeven year with minimal inputs? Scic will not offer enough coverage to bail out a farmer with $70 acre rent to $135 per jug transorb hc coupled with the new normal fertilizer prices. If canola stays at $20 all is great, but if it hits $10 well. The farm might fold. Whats the answer to be successful in 2022?
Divide your yields in half and you get mine鈥..who am I kidding. 1/3 of yours
 

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Our farm is bone dry , no subsoils moisture
Plan A ; not buy inputs till day before drill hits field , nothing pegged , Cropinss 80% , summerfallow if theres no return .
Plan B ; ?
 

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Crop insurance is yield coverage not dollar coverage.
Actually in Manitoba you can adjust crop insurances dollar values up if your marketing skills are better than there guess. You need to show proof of sales before mid summer. I like it because when I pre sell my grain I know what my own farms coverage is and its not based on somebody else s bet. I will likely use it again since I am selling new crop canola for 17 bucks a bushel off the combine. Marry that up to a put and you got decent protection. This year we are only seeing a three dollar a bushel spread from old crop to new crop. Last year it was at least 5 or more bucks a bushel. What does that spread tell you?

I think a lot of guys will cut canola acres in favour of wheat. Probably wheat is another crop to load up on puts especially durum.
 

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Crop insurance is yield coverage not dollar coverage.

We could all grow 40-45bu Canola and lose are shirts in 2022.

How many farms are going to be able to Cash flow 450-550 to grow Canola.
Crop insurance is yield coverage, but if you pre-sell up to your coverage levels you do not have to worry about cash flowing 450-550 growing canola next yr. Like others on this board I definitely left money on the table last yr by pre-selling, but having done that it still was the single biggest, best year that have ever had so I wish I could make more "mistakes" like that. For me canola is the "riskiest" crop since relative to our farm insurance coverage levels it offers the least return at relative prices/costs we are looking at now. It also is the crop that will get hurt the most in another dry year. I think it will be very interesting what canola acres are like Canada wide next year.

My hedge against canola issues, fertilizer, possible dry year again,etc is I have all kinds of pea seed(green and yellow), and barley seed as well as all Phos, 50% N prebooked(changes depending on final seeded acres nexxt Srping. I also have reduced my costs in growing canola over the past 5 years - planter, multi yr sulphur applications, liquid N, biosolids. Next year really will be fun.
 

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15$ canola off combine next fall. 3 crush plants being built or expanding, china going to start buying at pre2015 numbers..and IF the biodiesel plant at strathcona refinery gets a thumbs up... add on all the egos that got butt hurt not avg 50 or more canola? =24 million acres MINIMUM for canola next year
 

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15$ canola off combine next fall. 3 crush plants being built or expanding, china going to start buying at pre2015 numbers..and IF the biodiesel plant at strathcona refinery gets a thumbs up... add on all the egos that got butt hurt not avg 50 or more canola? =24 million acres MINIMUM for canola next year
Unless n/c prices quite a bit higher than $15/b and/or other stuff does not collapse I would take the under 24mln acres for next yr - by a lot. In fact n/c is higher than $15 around here now and still do not think it high enough to get close to 24Mln. Just my thoughts, but most of what you posted above would hint that mkt has to buy canola acres and pretty sure $15/b not enough to do that.

Using your crop ins numbers as something to hedge yourself against does take a bit of timing and since we have not even got end of Oct crop ins numbers let alone close enough to March 2022 numbers would have to think anybody doing any 2022 hedging right now really has their crystal ball shined up.
 

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With all the thinking going on , not sure you want to peg any new crop .
The risk off crumbling / crashing prices is zero in my mind , unless 4inches rain tomorrow.
I hope the lesson is learned , Bin Space is King
 

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Seriously? So your insurance has a bushel coverage X nothing????
You are insured for yields not dollars. The dollar figure comes from your insured yields times there so called price and the grade spreads they dream up after each harvest if applicable.
 

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My way of thinking this thing can crash as fast as it came up. We have to start selling at these historically high prices and protect the sales with options. Sure it reduces the eventual price by the cost of the option but it still adds up to a record price. The level of production you shoot for is based on your personal situation but these prices are too good to last in my view, which is mostly in the mirror looking back at price history. I can't see a damn thing ahead of me. If I could I wouldn't have to work. But I like to think I'd still farm:)
As for crop insurance levels, they are going up, a lot! That doesn't change anything though if you have an average crop at record input prices and the prices of crops go back to "normal" whatever that is.
 

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You are insured for yields not dollars. The dollar figure comes from your insured yields times there so called price and the grade spreads they dream up after each harvest if applicable.
For **** sakes when you put your claim in do you care if your 20bu short at $10 a bushel or 20bu short at $20. Point being it looks like we鈥檙e going to be at the highest coverage level ever by a long shot.
That said I鈥檒l be really surprised if they carry on as is.
 
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