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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
It happens here so often I am getting used to it. 3" of rain the last couple of days still didn't melt all the snow here on the fence and tree lines. Another 100% chance for 30-40mm Friday and rain again every 3-4 days it seems in the long range. If it keeps this up a floater will be seeding my canola acres. Won't even need to harrow it in with the straw cover on the ground being that wet. Germination will be the least of ones worries. Be a great yr for annual rye grass except at harvest time if it doesn't quit. My winter wheat is alive and trying to grow when the sun shines and isn't covered with H2O. Water isn't going in the ground any more it just flows away in the forest and fields. We went from dry dugouts and huge cracks in the ground last fall, which is rare, right back to full everything. Grasshoppers thought they were going to take over this yr but the mosquitoes and the beavers are making a huge comeback instead. Peas might be a disaster this yr and might have to change that idea. 80mm for Regina is forecasted. All this water has to go somewhere. Manitoba might be a lake everywhere yet. Alberta and Western Sask might be growing the crops this yr.
 

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Looking at my spreadsheets all week, if I put in a crop and it rains and if enough farmers pull in an average crop, prices will drop and I won't be able to pay my production bills, if I put in a crop and it doesn't rain and I get a below-average crop ( which is the norm for the past 5 years) still can't pay my production bills. The best I can hope is to break even.
Nutrien just posted a 10x more than anticipated profit. This makes no sense at all.
Better off borrowing as much as you can buying shares in Loblaws and getting a couple of dividend cheques before cashing out and repaying loans makes way better sense than throwing it in the dirt.
 

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Nutrien is part of the Canpotex cartel. Yes, it's a cartel and they tell you that openly. Even owning their own transport vessels. Interesting how "competitors" all work together. Exactly like the OPEC cartel. When people understand we don't actually have free markets, capitalism, or competition at the highest levels then it does indeed start making sense. Funny thing is, we are openly told all this stuff. Are banks really competing for your business? Umm, no - not when some central authority doing central planning is setting interest rates when it is supposed to be the individual bank that determines its risk/profit/return in a competitive, cost of business kind of world.

The peasants live with competition amongst each other but as you go higher up there is less competition and more coordination. And coordination is what the peasants talk of doing sometimes but it needs a heavy hand to make it happen. So yes, it does start making sense.
 

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They are close to done, talking with potential buyers close to me last year and they told me this will be the make or break year for them since there were absolutely no monies carried forward for this year and a lot of debt added on. Last year brought them to their knees financially this year will be a hail marry try. If we have the same summer like last year, I might be considered a BTO in the area.
It's the 80's all over again in my area.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Sad how so dry and so wet can be not all that far apart. At my kids ball game last night my buddy told me a guy was rolling a seeded field and a heavy harrow was going by Star City 60 miles west of me. Prince Albert got no rain the other day. These Colorado lows like a consistent path it seems. Where I live close to the forest rain seems to hit me more often than not. It builds up from the lakes west of me and unloads. Marean, Greenwater and Ponass to the west. Round lake, Quill lake to the south west. Anything building up in the line of thunderstorms coming from those directions hits me like a hammer. Crop insurance is guaranteeing me $569/acre on canola. Only a fool wouldn't seed that by whatever means necessary and put the majority of groceries if weather improves in liquid.
 

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Looking at my spreadsheets all week, if I put in a crop and it rains and if enough farmers pull in an average crop, prices will drop and I won't be able to pay my production bills, if I put in a crop and it doesn't rain and I get a below-average crop ( which is the norm for the past 5 years) still can't pay my production bills. The best I can hope is to break even.
Nutrien just posted a 10x more than anticipated profit. This makes no sense at all.
Better off borrowing as much as you can buying shares in Loblaws and getting a couple of dividend cheques before cashing out and repaying loans makes way better sense than throwing it in the dirt.
Fertilizer companies at record profit, Suncor (owns Petro Canada) has had the biggest profit quarter ever, banks continually showing billion dollar quarters and there is no price gouging going on? Of course everyone is allowed to make profits, that is the idea, but coming off the backs of others, at a world pandemic, record inflation, etc, there should be measures in place to step in.
 

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Fertilizer companies at record profit, Suncor (owns Petro Canada) has had the biggest profit quarter ever, banks continually showing billion dollar quarters and there is no price gouging going on? Of course everyone is allowed to make profits, that is the idea, but coming off the backs of others, at a world pandemic, record inflation, etc, there should be measures in place to step in.
The calm before the storm, society is at its breaking point, so where are these companies going to go from here, more profit? How?
I really don't see a soft landing here at all.
 

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Im sorry 569$ / C for canola covg and thats a no brainer?
100$/ acre rent here
200/ac fert
Fuel @ what.. 25/ ac
50$/ ac chem
75$/ seed
Afsc crop insurance here is 44$ ac

We have different pencils bcuz to me that 569/ ac would guarantee a guy a new coat next fall to wear to your bankruptcy auction..
Direct input costs for canola are well into the mid 3s and thats just to seed the damn stuff!
 

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Everybody's pencil may be a bit different color depending on Fall prices you assume. Basis today's Fall prices you can lock in the coverage levels would already be over 50% higher than the above numbers. To me the perennial problem with AFSC setting Spring prices too low is an even the bigger issue this yr because we are already at the maximum coverage level they could guarantee for the Fall - if prices hold. This means if you lock in prices up to your coverage level and they go higher from here(canola and wheat) and you do not have the product you will be dealing with those nice contract cxllns and grain cos later

I would love to lock in more Fall delivery stuff as there is a great margin basis mkts today., however the charts do not look to me like we have seen a top to these prices yet. FWIW - in Central AB we have excellent conditions and if anything an earlyish seeding season. However, this means we actually are relatively dry. I will be taking up pricing to drought levels of production as soon as the charts suggest this is a good thing to do, but there likely a May long wkend snow and/or frost that a person could worry about ahead of that.
 

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Glad to see your still at it uthinkyourwet! Hopefully it’s a justrightwet year and we can knock one out of the park! 😂
Sounds like the brunt of this rain is going to be south of us. Maybe it’ll line up with the folks that need it!
 
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