[Jackfish]

Being going to a few bred sales lately and I found myself in Vermilion today, 550 really good bred heifers sold, top end was $4450, with very few groups selling under $3000. I'm pretty optimistic about cattle but I came home empty handed. These were crossbred heifers. For the sake of discussion what are other guys seeing for prices, and how do you determine what a bred heifer, or even a young cow should be worth. I guess based on what we're getting for our calves, and our culls, these prices might not be to far out of line (guessing the average was around $3300) but I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around spending that much on a cow.
This was a well put together well advertised sale, there's definitely cheaper breds at weekly bred sales, my mind was just blown away today.

 

[Old Farmer]

what are calves going to be in five years?
My luck with buying cows was pretty bad

 

[meritmat]

hehe neighbor had to spend 100k on cows (tax problem) came back with 27 bred heifers

 

[lambear]

With a sharp rise like this, there has to be a correction??? Right? I haven't paid attention to beef on the store shelf, but at what point do you switch to pork or chicken?

 

[cptusa]

That is what is limiting the market is demand due to price. I think the top may be in now, but I don't see much of a back off in prices either.

If the economy really got rolling again and people were buying the top end cuts of beef, we could have had the perfect storm to really blow the top off this market. Now I think that by the time we have a full economic recovery the herd will be ramped up tp meet the demand.

Good times are here for a while in my opinion, but 3-4500 on bred heifers... eh... thats a tough pill to swallow.

 

[Old Farmer]

I would rather be the seller than the buyers

 

[pete gads]

ranch i work on sold 1 yr old pure breed heifers at regina agribition for 17-19000.00 each

 

[regency]

Sure and I've seen bulls sell for 200, 300, 600K but that doesnt mean Joe Blo can raise some bulls and sell them all for half a mil.

Around here for the average bred heifer I would say they are selling around the $2750 mark. 3 to 4's are actually out selling the breds by quite a bit. Its all relative to calf prices. Steers are bringing 1500-1600 average. Breds are generally 2 steers, bulls are generally 4-5 steers.

 

[Fixx]

Being going to a few bred sales lately and I found myself in Vermilion today, 550 really good bred heifers sold, top end was $4450, with very few groups selling under $3000. I'm pretty optimistic about cattle but I came home empty handed. These were crossbred heifers. For the sake of discussion what are other guys seeing for prices, and how do you determine what a bred heifer, or even a young cow should be worth. I guess based on what we're getting for our calves, and our culls, these prices might not be to far out of line (guessing the average was around $3300) but I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around spending that much on a cow.
This was a well put together well advertised sale, there's definitely cheaper breds at weekly bred sales, my mind was just blown away today.

I was in vermilion on sat and also was at awe at the prices . wtf?watched at swift current today and they too were out of the ball park... tons of groups over $4000.

 

[Fixx]

they also chop up the groups into such small bunches,,5,6,7,8 ...come on doesn't anybody by 30 or 50 ? old cowboys show up to the sale and buy 6 hiefers ... not a big deal to them . all the young guys that I knew never bought any

 

[Jackfish]

they also chop up the groups into such small bunches,,5,6,7,8 ...come on doesn't anybody by 30 or 50 ? old cowboys show up to the sale and buy 6 hiefers ... not a big deal to them . all the young guys that I knew never bought any

I was actually surprised how many young guys where at that sale, if you judge the average age of the industry by who shows up at the other sales I've been at this industry is in trouble. it's going to be hard for the herd to expand much, if you don't have a bunch of paid for cows at home it would be tough to establish something at these prices, and odds are if you do have a bunch of paid for cows then your 60+ and not exactly in expansion mode.
I liked how they were sorted, seemed you could fill up a gooseneck easy enough, if you wanted more buy more groups..... What I didnt like was how a certain unnamed ring man just claimed the extras off of a big group when they werent all wanted by the winning bidder. Too many games get played at some of these sales.

 

[meritmat]

The scary thing is how the price of grazing lease is jumping, its pushing 400 bucks an acre, were couple years ago it was 150ish. 10 years before that it was 75-100. Makes it impossible for young people to expand.

 

[lambear]

The scary thing is how the price of grazing lease is jumping, its pushing 400 bucks an acre, were couple years ago it was 150ish. 10 years before that it was 75-100. Makes it impossible for young people to expand.

This is crown lease? The market value of selling the right to lease?

 

[meritmat]

ya sorry I was going to add that

 

[snapper21]

I was actually surprised how many young guys where at that sale, if you judge the average age of the industry by who shows up at the other sales I've been at this industry is in trouble. it's going to be hard for the herd to expand much, if you don't have a bunch of paid for cows at home it would be tough to establish something at these prices, and odds are if you do have a bunch of paid for cows then your 60+ and not exactly in expansion mode.
I liked how they were sorted, seemed you could fill up a gooseneck easy enough, if you wanted more buy more groups..... What I didnt like was how a certain unnamed ring man just claimed the extras off of a big group when they werent all wanted by the winning bidder. Too many games get played at some of these sales.

That was one hot sale. The certain unamed ring man could either be Peter Paul Mary or any other aptly named biblical character. Those guys are well known for games and bidders triangles than anywhere else.

 

[CRToney]

Are the prices higher as guys try and dodge the tax bullet? Will prices soften in the new year ? A lot of ranchers will try to exit the industry at the top of the market. Why not when you're 60+.

 

[oldred460]

Breds

Well last year I bought some bred heifers for $1600 each. My old man said that is way too high. I said when you bought bred heifers 12-14 yrs ago for $11-1200 and were getting $500 for a calf that was too high. Last year my calves averaged $1000 in the fall. This year kept back my own heifers for replacements or if I need cash to sell in the new year. My calf sales averaged $1798 this fall. Makes those $1600 bred heifers seem pretty cheap. Cull cows out here at Rimbey are going for right around $2000. The prices are high because of the low amount of breeding stock out there. I bought some cow calfs last Febuary for $2100 and now they are way above $3000. The heifer prices here took awhile to ram up as there were a lot of cow/calfs for sale earlier this fall out this way. Out of everyone at the auction mart the last few times I been there, only 1 or 2 guys are younger than me (46) so this would tell me I am one of the youngest cattle farmers in my area still at it. I agree anyone that is 60+ is looking at getting out either before calving or right after in the spring.

Mark

 

[TLCC]

I would rather be the seller than the buyers

Sellers market for sure. I'd love nothing more than to expand but $3000+ for a bred is a whole lot of risk, makes me reconsider why I was scared of $1500 cows last fall.

If the dollar keeps going down with oil, next fall could be better yet!

 

[garyfunk]

Heifer calves are $1400 - $1500. Looks like a good time to background and breed a bunch...
We'll see next fall I guess.

 

[Fixx]

how long to rebuild the cow herd? you can sell it in a hurray but rebuilding it could take yrs. $4000 dollar hiefers might look good if in a yr from now our calves start bringing $2200 . if we are short of calves and people start holding back hiefers then wont that tighten up the supply even more ?