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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
This is ridiculous! 1500 deaths from a population of 1.5 billion...and that's some kinda panic situation? I don't get it! Where's the issue here? This is a non-event! There's 10's of 1000's die from the common cold each year in China, let alone the much higher flu death numbers.
We all know why the sensationalist media is in it, but why is this being beat up and by whom and what do they have to gain from doing so?
 

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Social media and every new age warrior, who thinks they can change the world with a smartphone in their hands. Easy to cause a hype and to ignore the fact these days.
 

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Some are saying Chinese Gov is lying about the numbers....I dont really trust their government anyway.. but it is quite odd that China is basically shut down...

I dont like them... I dont like it....
 

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Storm in a tea cup. I've found if I don't watch the news or log on to any news feeds there isn't that much going on. Most media outlets, particularly online ones are driven by traffic so they can go to advertisers with numbers that show good traffic through the site. It's all click bait. I like your new girlfriend Lynas......what's her name?
 

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This is ridiculous! 1500 deaths from a population of 1.5 billion...and that's some kinda panic situation? I don't get it! Where's the issue here? This is a non-event! There's 10's of 1000's die from the common cold each year in China, let alone the much higher flu death numbers.
We all know why the sensationalist media is in it, but why is this being beat up and by whom and what do they have to gain from doing so?
Kezza summed it up!
158419
 

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So are you suggesting that China is using Coronavirus as a means to manipulate markets by shutting down factories to hold up supply?
Doesn't sound like China at all. :censored:
 

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While it's true that the death rate from our common flus is much higher than this virus, the fact is this particular virus is especially contagious. From what I've read the rate of infection is about double that of a common flu. This is concerning to epidemiologists. Also it's concerning that it's not just the unhealthy people dying, as is often the case with the flu. People in good health are dying of it. Given the contagious nature of the virus, taking steps to limit the spread could be justified. But not an outright travel ban.

This is very similar to the SARS outbreak, which was a big deal at the time.

Nothing to panic over, though. And other than public health organizations to monitor and plan, nothing really for any of us to do or worry about. It's certainly not a pandemic. Not a storm in a teacup either.
 

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Some other things building on what Torriem said.

New virus, so in the early stages they’re likely to be genuinely unsure or have enough data to determine what the mortality rate is likely to be, who the at risk populations are OR if it’s going to rapidly mutate into something w a higher mortality rate = the precautionary principle gets applied until more and better info becomes available.

Also, the fact that people can be carriers/infective BEFORE exhibiting symptoms mean they’re also trying to contain it until they know more as well.

China’s habit of not being transparent on these things doesn’t help the trust process either.

But yeah, at this point no need to panic and likely to be a blip once we know more.
 

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Bigger problem is it looks to be modified, not naturally occurring. Might of originated in Winnipeg. Looks like a deep state play to cause economic havoc. Sure took pressure off a lot of world protests.
 

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I think the biggest fear is it is mainly in China, and the world is reluctant to believe much if anything they claim or say. For all we know, they could have buried a million dead already. Almost anywhere else in the world , it would be a different story.
 

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I think there is some faulty thinking in this thread. It isn’t just the matter that the common flu kills a large number each year, if you contract the common flu, you have about a 0.1 % chance of dying. Corona virus seems to be stabilizing at about a 2.0% death rate if you actually contract it. That’s a multiple of 20 times as many more deaths per diagnosis as common flu.

300 million people x 20% contract rate x 0.1% death rate for flu is 60 thousand deaths in a season.

300 million people x 20 % contract rate x 2% death rate for corona virus would be 1.2 million deaths per season.

Statistically the only thing preventing this from being 20 times more deadly than the flu will be the contract rate, which can vary widely per season with 20% being at the high end of seasonal averages. The contract to death ratio, is now reasonably steady at about 2% ,unfortunately.
 

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The biggest impact of coronavirus on Ag will be the availability of chemicals. Large factory and logistic shut downs - chemicals could feasibly be in short supply ahead of the season.

Double hit in Australia demand will be unreal in areas that have had flooding rains

Many boneheaded farmers head in the sand ah it’s just chem suppliers tying to push prices up.

This is a black swan event in chem industry.

Other furphy my chemicals are manufactured in Australia errrr bad luk guys your Corect except raw product comes from China.

Also have to remember biggest chem plant in the world blew up back in sept 19.

Then add bearings steel all gonna be slow coming out of China.

People have zero idea the world needs a healthy vibrant China and its economy strong, Tarif war muddied the waters.

All the rhetoric USA will beat China in trade war no one really understood ramifications on both sides now chuck in corona virus this **** is getting serious.

Glyphosate for instance there are ample supplies and should be ok but any glyphosate not here or on the water there’s a 22 week backlog. Nothing has moved for 3 weeks and seems another 3 minimum. Other useless news paraquat went up 17% overnight Thursday night not sue when that will be priced in sooner rather than later. 540 glyphosate went up last week but 450 stayed the same. Off course gonna be huge demand in nsw qld and parts of vic
 

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Hopefully spring comes early and with a vengeance in the entire northern hemisphere. That may seriously stress the world’s economy, but it may also be the saving grace for many tens of thousands of humans to dodge this one.
 

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I think there is some faulty thinking in this thread. It isn’t just the matter that the common flu kills a large number each year, if you contract the common flu, you have about a 0.1 % chance of dying. Corona virus seems to be stabilizing at about a 2.0% death rate if you actually contract it. That’s a multiple of 20 times as many more deaths per diagnosis as common flu.

300 million people x 20% contract rate x 0.1% death rate for flu is 60 thousand deaths in a season.

300 million people x 20 % contract rate x 2% death rate for corona virus would be 1.2 million deaths per season.

Statistically the only thing preventing this from being 20 times more deadly than the flu will be the contract rate, which can vary widely per season with 20% being at the high end of seasonal averages. The contract to death ratio, is now reasonably steady at about 2% ,unfortunately.
There are other considerations, as well.

First of all, COVID-19 seems to have an R0 of between 1.4 and 6.6. This means that one person will infect an additional 1 to 6 people, which kicks the crap out of the flus 2 to 3. This puts it in the range of contagion of other diseases we battled for millennia, and have only nearly eliminated with extreme widespread vaccinations.

Secondly, they've been jumping back and forth on the line of it being contagious before the onset of symptoms. Some agencies have said it is, others not. If it is, then this makes it basically uncontainable at this point.

Third, 15 to 20 percent of reported cases have been severe and required ICU treatment, so far. In many of these, regular oxygen won't help and patients require intubation. We ultimately lack the hospital space for these cases. The WHO recommends countries have 1 hospital bed for every 1500 people. In China, they have beds for closer to 1 for every 7000, I believe. If we follow that 20% contraction rate for Canada, then during the course of the epidemic, 900,000 will require prolonged hospital stays. Also, not all of these beds have ventilators as they are hugely expensive pieces of equipment. If hospitals become overrun, then quality of care drops to near zero and death tolls increase. Possibly over the 10% to 15% range with the majority in the young, old, asthmatics, etc.
 
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