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Discussion Starter #1
So with the majority of the USA off to a cold, wet, slow, delayed, pathetic start ow do the crop conditions/progress look in your specific area?

Here its been hit and miss on rain, saturated ground puts you out of the field for a few days with a quarter inch of rain. Many still planting corn that would normally have been in the ground a month ago. A fair amount of what is planted is having emergence issues. There are a ton of soybeans to get planted yet. This cop is majorly stressed the top end of the yield is gone. From what we hear is we are is we are in one of the better areas.

Realistically looking like a national yield of 150-160 is in play instead of the trend line 176 they are projecting. Also realistically looking like 2-3 million acres less and potentially up to 5 million acres less corn to be planted than initially projected.

Next 2 weeks looks wet yet, things can turn quick as we all know but as of now this country is on the cusp of a short crop.
 

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Slow, very, very slow. Still getting frost every few nights. We have nothing up yet, and some has been in the ground for close to 3 weeks. There is decent moisture to get things started, just too cold. Took yesterday and today off, doing canola now so don't know if we want it all in at the same time, only have 3-4 days left. Trees didn't start to green up until about 5 days ago, but have come to a stand still again because of the cold. Had a couple tenths of rain a few days ago, but that has been the only rain so far this year. Haven't sprayed a thing yet because no weeds even growing.


Only had to use the A/C one day this year, but turns out it wasn't working! Had maybe 3 days all spring above 20 degrees. By the looks of the forecast, we should be done before we need to get the A/C fixed.
 

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On of the marketing letters I read suggested if it gets late enough you can elect to not seed as potential yield will drop through costs or insurance coverage any ways?

That was the gist of it any ways, but it sounded like a large block might be headed that way.

Edit: (U.S) corn acres
 

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Slow, very, very slow. Still getting frost every few nights. We have nothing up yet, and some has been in the ground for close to 3 weeks. There is decent moisture to get things started, just too cold. Took yesterday and today off, doing canola now so don't know if we want it all in at the same time, only have 3-4 days left. Trees didn't start to green up until about 5 days ago, but have come to a stand still again because of the cold. Had a couple tenths of rain a few days ago, but that has been the only rain so far this year. Haven't sprayed a thing yet because no weeds even growing.


Only had to use the A/C one day this year, but turns out it wasn't working! Had maybe 3 days all spring above 20 degrees. By the looks of the forecast, we should be done before we need to get the A/C fixed.
our wheat is up and oats too looking nice but we sowed it deep, took forever to come up.
soys and canola are hit and miss with the dry soil we have.

this is funny, me and the old aggie group have a snapchat group and everyone in there had issues this year with their ac not working, luckily I topped mine off in spring because it was low somehow, than dad grabbed the john deere and wanted to roll 1 field on that one hot day and 2 way radio's his ac isn't working, went out to field and topped it off. I'm thinking the cold winter made some freeon leak away causing the ac's not to work.

I feel bad for the guys down south struggling to get the crop in, we've been there many times as far as 2011 we're lots of fields didn't get sowed and half the crop had the canola floated on. Don't ever wanna do that again, its just like throwing money at strippers, sure it feels like doing the right thing but in the end you go home like a mess and out quite a bit of money.
this year been one of the easiest springs we've ever seen, besides seeding in the dry dirt and deciding how deep to go with the seed.
 

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Unless you have some sandy ground, basically nothing done around here. Those with livestock are running out of manure storage, hay fields are very poor to completely dead. Very little winter wheat has survived.
Everything seems to be a month late. Trees are doing nothing, even the dandelions aren't blooming.
An old timer told me 7 weeks ago it would be a very late year because the cycle of the moon is away off of the months of the calendar this year. I should listen more to him, he's always telling me stuff like this and he seems to always be right.
Hope it turns soon, insurance planting dates are fast approaching.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
On of the marketing letters I read suggested if it gets late enough you can elect to not seed as potential yield will drop through costs or insurance coverage any ways?

That was the gist of it any ways, but it sounded like a large block might be headed that way.

Edit: (U.S) corn acres
I will not be doing prevent plant and never have yet but here is my understanding of it, all figures are close but may not be 100% accurate.

Spring prices are $4.00 corn and $9.54 soybeans.

Assuming a guaranteed yield of 200 bpa corn and 55 bpa soybeans at 85% insurance level. Prevent plant is 55% of gurantee.

Prevented plant corn: 200x$4x85%=$680x55%= $374 PP payment.

Planted beans instead: 55x$9.54x85%=$446 guarantee.

$446-374= $72 advantage to plant beans, however, input costs have to come out of that so you are looking at $50 seed costs and $35 chemical cost so the bean advantage drops to $72-$50-$35= ($13)/acre and you still have expense to put crop in and harvest.

Those numbers start making PP a bit more attractive.
 

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Those numbers start making PP a bit more attractive.
With all respect cpt, those numbers are fantasy to us up here in Canada.

For Canada, most crops are hovering marginally above their cost of production with our main money maker in the toilet. We don't have a weather issue (yet) but one could be brewing. Short moisture in a lot of areas.

The cold dry start could create two scenarios. Delayed season if we get some rainfall shortly, or a drought fuelled disaster. I worked with a toque on yesterday.
 

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I will not be doing prevent plant and never have yet but here is my understanding of it, all figures are close but may not be 100% accurate.

Spring prices are $4.00 corn and $9.54 soybeans.

Assuming a guaranteed yield of 200 bpa corn and 55 bpa soybeans at 85% insurance level. Prevent plant is 55% of gurantee.

Prevented plant corn: 200x$4x85%=$680x55%= $374 PP payment.

Planted beans instead: 55x$9.54x85%=$446 guarantee.

$446-374= $72 advantage to plant beans, however, input costs have to come out of that so you are looking at $50 seed costs and $35 chemical cost so the bean advantage drops to $72-$50-$35= ($13)/acre and you still have expense to put crop in and harvest.
So, as long as it is a legit can’t plant you’d make more prevent plant as opposed to a crop insurance claimed short or lost planted crop?
Or I’m I interpreting this wrong?
 

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Its interesting here, some guys are actually done, I'm not one of them and of all of its that's left there is only a likelyhood that qtrs could not be seeded.

Canola is going to be really lucky if it makes it through this. Most had been laying in the ground for 2 weeks plus before it came out of the dirt.

I chose to leave the planter in the shed and I'm glad I did, right now for the corn planted with the 6 days of high temps and switch to snow it will likely be growing down rather than up heading towards warm dirt. That never ends pretty.

2 weeks of rain and lots of freezing temps in the forecast. I really dont know what to think! But this is definitely not normal!
 

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It's all because of climate change, don't ya know?? Send me most of your money, and I will make it all better! I won't tell you how I will do it, but I will make it better!
 

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We got a late start up here in the PNW but things are looking great. All the snow in February gave us ample moisture. The winter wheat and the winter peas look great. The spring wheat I seeded is up, actually came up in a week which I have never seen before, and looks really good. All the winter crops are sprayed and I still have a little bit of field work to finish up but pretty well caught up. And we just got anywhere from a half an inch to 1.5 inches of rain this last week which was perfect timing. It looks like we could be pushing another record crop especially if it stays relatively cool through June. I feel bad for the guys in the Midwest it sounds like a wreck to say the least.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
So, as long as it is a legit can’t plant you’d make more prevent plant as opposed to a crop insurance claimed short or lost planted crop?
Or I’m I interpreting this wrong?
Not exactly. PP is 55% of your revenue guarantee. So 200 BPA x $4 spring price x 85% coverage election = $680/acre guarantee if planted by the final date, PP is 55% of that number so $374 is your PP guarantee.

If you got it planted and only grew say a 150 BPA crop in the previous scenario assuming the same fall price that would equate to 150 BPA x $4= $600/acre or $80/acre short of your $680 guarantee which would trigger an $80/acre payment.

If you got it planted and the crop got completely destroyed by whatever then you would have a $680/acre payment coming, without getting the combine dirty.

Its far better to get a corn crop in the ground than to take PP on it, but taking PP on a corn crop you can not get planted as opposed to switching those acres to soybeans may make financial sense.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
Does seed corn count as a separate crop?

Yes, its basically a corn-soybean rotation with cattle guys having some alfalfa in the mix. I've played with some forage sorghum on seed corn isolation acres and have been pretty happy with that but its not an insurable crop either.

There's also some fields that guys run continuous corn for several years, I don't care for that as disease issues can become more pronounced and costs are higher anyway.
 

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Wet here too, some guys are done or nearly done, then some others haven't started yet... I'm in the middle, got some in but a ways to go. Probably going to be around the first week of June and still putting some corn in, won't seed any late maturity stuff only early then. I was able to get the late RM stuff in, wasn't the field I wanted it to go in but its planted.


Beans are 60% for PP, not the 55% like corn is. Still far from attractive. All PP does is allow you to survive to put in a crop the following year, after land rent/taxes, and cost of maintaining the ground for a year, it is breakeven at best. Some can make money on it if they own the land and have it paid off. Have to attempt to put in the crop, or else they won't pay out. Good choice though if you didn't have inputs down like fertilizer or herbicide, I did have some dry spread last fall though.


I don't think I have ever had so much mud get piled up inside a planter row units before, I've seen them plug but not this frequently. Got good at pulling one or both depth wheels off and scraping the mud off the inside of the wheel.


Fertilizer is also slow getting up here since barges can't get up the river, so has to be trucked or hauled by rail. Flooding also affects that too, I know some states had rail tracks get damaged earlier in the spring. Luckily I'm using a liquid blend on the planter, most here just use a little bit if they have a setup for starter, I'm one who can use a lot more though as I have a 2X2 setup. The one day I had to get the tender tank refilled the site was a 5 ring circus, one of the other sites ran out of AMS and had to wait for the truck load to arrive, about a couple hour trip out of the cities.
 

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The difference between frost and freezing?

Frost is generally thought of a white coating on vegetative growth.
It obviously froze this morning but since the dew point (-7 dew point with a -3 low) was never reached it did not turn things white.
I think that makes sense?
By the way, I challenge anyone to show me a lower low this morning in cropping zone Alberta, this station is located on very frosty, low for the local topography ground, soon as you get wind under 5 km it can be significantly colder.
 

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Been a very slow and erratic spring here, although quite dry. Frequent frosts and cold soil temps are holding up crop development. On Saturday soil temp was 6C which is below where many crops should even be planted! I would say generally the area is nearly finished but I still have my canola to put in, will start on that today. Unfavorable conditions for spraying too, although there are few weeds actually growing yet and none of then look really healthy. My wheat and peas are just breaking ground as of yesterday and Captain you will laugh but this is one week of development on the corn crop!

 

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I hate to be that guy, but you asked. We have been extremely fortunate.

Ive never finished planting even before June and Im done with corn and full season soybeans. Corn looks good but were starting to get a little dry and going to have a lot of 90*+ this week. Half of my beans are popping up and looking good, other half was planted deep in very dry soil, hoping they find the moisture or we get a stray shower. Nothing in forecast, unusual for us as we are a pretty high rainfall area especially in the last decade.

Winter wheat looks good, but it was very patchy and inconsistant emerging and maturing. Top end is probably our average.
 

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