[small time operator]

Adequate moisture here seems elnino is diminishing day by day for WA SA and most of Vic

 

[small time operator]

Woops WA isn't on that map but similar to SA

 

[X80]

They seem to be a bit all over the show?...some say it will be like 82 or 92....July to sept meant to be warm and dry....however if it's warm in sept would it not bring more storm activity?....I have enough moisture till October I reckon...and even toolondo has plenty...I say talk the elnino up so it keeps grain prices high....talk up the wars....the wet in Canada...the dry in southern USA....grain buyers better jump in quick or u will miss out!!


How did the big rig go?

Ant....

 

[okpanhandle]

I'd hate for you guys to go through a drought, but el nino usually means more rain and snow for my region. I am absolutely sick of drought and failed crops.

 

[anfpol]

jamstec are going for neg iod . not so good for northern nsw and qld but sth nsw, vic, sa should see average rain. if u look at sst maps a lot of warm water around aus .around here the super elnino that was spoken about may not be as bad as 2006

 

[blanchfarm]

Well I'm sort of hoping we do get a Elnino from memory we get dryer but we seem to get more storms which work out better for us.
I just getting sick of these "normal" years we've been having good rain but it comes it comes in 140mm resulting in a flood.

 

[Auscocky]

Spot on Blanchy, if the last 12 months were "normal" I'll take the El Niño.

 

[sneeky]

Planted a lot of wheat on these forecasts last year...................that worked out well.

Two things really piss me off about these climate forecasts. Firstly the fact that you get all these commentators telling us how stupid farmers are and that we need to take notice of things like climate forecasts and what not. Yeah, like they are really accurate! Second, Why do we spend so much money on trying to forecast the climate??? We obviously can't do it. I'd rather see that money spent on more radars and more effort in getting the 7 day forecast more accurate. I reckon they have a better chance of achieving that and a more accurate 7 day forecast would mean better decisions could be made on farm.

 

[blanchfarm]

Planted a lot of wheat on these forecasts last year...................that worked out well.

Two things really piss me off about these climate forecasts. Firstly the fact that you get all these commentators telling us how stupid farmers are and that we need to take notice of things like climate forecasts and what not. Yeah, like they are really accurate! Second, Why do we spend so much money on trying to forecast the climate??? We obviously can't do it. I'd rather see that money spent on more radars and more effort in getting the 7 day forecast more accurate. I reckon they have a better chance of achieving that and a more accurate 7 day forecast would mean better decisions could be made on farm.

All I know is if I was given that sort of money to do that job and I did it the way it getting done I'd be locked up in some nice prison somewhere for misleading information or something along those lines.

 

[Bundy Bear]

Adequate moisture here seems elnino is diminishing day by day for WA SA and most of Vic

I am not sure if you are a weather buff or not but just to clarify a few things...

El Nino causes warmer springs and dry hot summers. It has little to no effect on autumn and winter rainfall. They haven't called an El Nino yet, but it is looking increasingly likely. You map shows WA, SA and Vic in a good position, and that is good to hear!! However...

Those three southern states obviously rely on winter cropping and winter rainfall. If you are in a line north of Dubbo, that map is concerning. This region relies on summer rainfall. The last two summers in the northern region have been nothing short of a disaster, and the way its shaping, it looks to be three from three.

I hope the big three southern states have a good season, however that suggesting the El Nino is not going to be much of a concern just isn't accurate. It's not going to concern the south much (providing the spring doesn't come in too hot too early). It is going to cause issues in the north unless things turn fast

 

[small time operator]

agree with you bundy studied all so called elnino years on my ranch and 40% are average 10% above average 30% below and 20% shockers if one has had summer rain lessens the effect the following year, you are correct with your northern region comments.
WA and SA usually least affected ps im in 13/14 inch rainfall and after 2000 dry springs are almost the norm only had 3 above average springs in that time all about temps and frost or lack off in my neck of the woods

 

[X80]

200mm for June in Portland...

However toolondo having a cracker....

Hope I can pull an average year ...that will be awesome

Ant...

 

[lynas]

Planted a lot of wheat on these forecasts last year...................that worked out well.

Two things really piss me off about these climate forecasts. Firstly the fact that you get all these commentators telling us how stupid farmers are and that we need to take notice of things like climate forecasts and what not. Yeah, like they are really accurate! Second, Why do we spend so much money on trying to forecast the climate??? We obviously can't do it. I'd rather see that money spent on more radars and more effort in getting the 7 day forecast more accurate. I reckon they have a better chance of achieving that and a more accurate 7 day forecast would mean better decisions could be made on farm.

We`re smack bang in the middle of the dark blue on the April-June Map
2013 Forecast Map consistently said 75-80% chance of exceeding the median rainfall over the six month period from April through September.
We actually received about 50 % of our normal rainfall during that period!
A baby would have been more accurate!
As for this year, things are going to turn to Sh*t very fast here, if we don`t get good rain soon!

 

[Auscocky]

I think this highlights the volatility in Australian climate. When meteorologists with access to the latest computer modelling software and satellite imagery get it so wrong it just shows how unpredictable our weather is. Our fathers farmed without cutting edge technology. I guess at the end of the day you follow your gut.
I've invested heavily in mine and.......occasionally it's right

 

[ozpete]

Id swear we've been in el nino for 12 months in Qld already. Rolling 12 month rainfall is about 70-75% of average for me.

 

[RM-MN]

You people are complaining about a forecast 6 to 12 months in the future and I wonder why the local weather people can't get the current conditions right. When they say it is a sunny day, I'd like them to look out a window at the rain coming down.