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Seed placed fert is bought. 1500 litres of round up bought. Canola seed is bought. Propane for drying is bought. And today bought 3 more 1000 gal fuels tanks to fill after I fill every piece of machinery to the rim. It's insane where prices are headed from where I think pricing is crazy now. Spend, spend, spend to try and save. Once everything I bought to save is gone then what? Where will commodity prices be after all these increases a yr or 2 down the road. $4 dollar barley, $3.00 oats, $8 wheat, and $10.50 canola will never support these gains ever. It will be the end of agriculture in Canada. World markets are all strong now but what happens when that changes. Fuel at $2 for a farmer is no laughing matter and its coming. Every time Trudeau opens his mouth with his 100+ people from Canada living 5 star accommodations at this save the world climate change meeting, we watch prices go higher. He wants to be the guy who is first to put his country in economic peril to eliminate oil and gas. China and Russia and many other countries right now are laughing at where we are headed. I really wonder what is in store for Ag in Canada.
 

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Want to know what's in store? Check out what's happened in Venezuela. That's what happens when you let incompetent corrupt morons run the country. It was not long ago the richest most advanced country in South America. Now thanks to incompetent socialist govts people are leaving the country in droves because they don't even have the basic necessities. Govt made everything free there... except there is none left.
 

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Want to know what's in store? Check out what's happened in Venezuela. That's what happens when you let incompetent corrupt morons run the country. It was not long ago the richest most advanced country in South America. Now thanks to incompetent socialist govts people are leaving the country in droves because they don't even have the basic necessities. Govt made everything free there... except there is none left.

So Venezuela is socialist country
 

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So far I purchased 80 bags canola, that’s all they could speak for .
cleaning is not done yet .
other retail said they could get me some , but it was up $60 bag .
told them I look for better pricing.
My bet is pricing will come down , it’s just not sustainable to double prices on such short term .
The fear mongering is working big time it seems like !
 

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Nobody remember 2008-9?
Fuel here in Australia was push $1.90 litre, Fert was $15- 1800 tonne and climbing, chem was too high.
The world as I knew it was ending, it was going to be unprofitable to continue to crop, so back to a livestock bias for me.
Then everything imploded, stock market crashed, oil crashed and fert and chemicals came back to realistic levels and all returned to normal.
Remember without food nothing happens.
Simply reduce now to a price sustainable level until food stocks reduce.
Farmers margins are very stable in the big picture, any extra profit is simply taken out by wholesale until we return to our minimal profit margin
 

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This isn’t 2007-2008. Too many things are different. Stupid cheap and free money only lasts so long. This managed money can only last so long and I believe I was actually better off back in the late 90s then today. We doubled almost every commodity in last 12months but how much money have we printed in last 18months. Something has to change sooner or later but I sure don’t see inputs coming down before spring. Retailer sheds are empty.
 

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Nobody remember 2008-9?
Fuel here in Australia was push $1.90 litre, Fert was $15- 1800 tonne and climbing, chem was too high.
The world as I knew it was ending, it was going to be unprofitable to continue to crop, so back to a livestock bias for me.
Then everything imploded, stock market crashed, oil crashed and fert and chemicals came back to realistic levels and all returned to normal.
Remember without food nothing happens.
Simply reduce now to a price sustainable level until food stocks reduce.
Farmers margins are very stable in the big picture, any extra profit is simply taken out by wholesale until we return to our minimal profit margin
You may be spot on mate. I remember markets cooled off super fast back than. One major difference, is that cool off happened in October /November and the opportunity to forward sell at good prices was long gone. This time we have the good prices staring right in front of us. Still risky to sell as some farmers with 1 million contract buyouts would attest to. Also 08/09 were not dry years, actually pretty wet especially where I farm. 2009 was the year of pretty bad flood. I had 6 feet of water on my land on the high spots.
Oil was 140 dollars a barrel in 2008. I think gas prices are higher nowthan 08 and oil is only 84 bucks a barrel now. I wish I could figure that economics out!!
 

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Look roundup was in larger demand than normal this fall so price went up. Also some active ingredient sourcing issue.
China reduced fert export, price went up russia sold out to india so reduced export to the west etc etc.
Itll come back down before march i highly doubt that, probably be june. Will phos go back to sub $700 cad, nope. Nh3 below $1000 nope.
Grain prices are going to stay higher for a while yet as there is a shortage. Unless south America is going to grow a record crop i don't see prices moving back to the old. But then again its what i think its not what i know. With high gas prices ethanol is being used and crushers of soys and canola make good margins. So demand is there. Oats and flax is hughe shortage and so is wheat.
 

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Buy, buy, buy, and we will soon be saying “bye bye”
bye”.
Ive done this for 35 yrs and I’m glad I’m on the back 9 of this game. Actually on hole 16, I’ve put my order at the clubhouse. Lol
We will never exist if this stupidity continues. I don’t care what commodity prices are at, machinery and the rest of what it takes to keep a farm running will slaughter us. I’m not trying to be so pessimistic, but this is reality. I’ve seen this rhetoric coming for years and it’s hear.
If you think it’s bad now, this is a picnic to what’s coming.
 

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If corn acres drop off like they did in 07-8 we won't have enough corn for current demand. Something is going to happen. Who blinks first. Fert makers or corn buyers. If buyers show up the fertilizer prices aren't going down.

I'm locked in for 70% of estimated fert need. Will see what my sampling comes back. We were lucky enough to have a normal crop this year so I doubt there's much in the ground.
 

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We will never exist if this stupidity continues. I don’t care what commodity prices are at, machinery and the rest of what it takes to keep a farm running will slaughter us.
Thats how I feel about our current land bids. Only way the young guys entering the business will make it will be by mom and dads equity. I dont know when the land balloon will pop but it will happen when all the other farm costs suffocate the balance sheet and we lose the true most important asset we have.
 

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