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Last year when some land became available nearby, we did some spreadsheeting to determine what kind of offer we could practically make (land went for over twice that). Then for fun he took the estimated yearly payment on that loan and calculated what it would look like if we paid that money into an investment account each year at a fairly conservative rate of return. Unsurprisingly, the numbers were strongly in favor of investing the money, rather than buying the land. This is assuming that our goal was to buy the land and keep it indefinitely, rather than buy it to sell it.

So there is some good wisdom in investing as others have mentioned above. Investments aren't just for individuals; corporations like farms can own them as well.
Ya I agree Torr this high priced land don鈥檛 pencil out but good for the guys taking a shot and buying
 

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Or stay the course with Energy stocks. If oil stays over 70. The big 3 are printing money. (Cve-Su-cnrl).
For the most part gone are the days of mega projects. There more into share holder returns. Cve and Su doubled div last quarter plus started share by back. Oil stays over 70 next year very good chance they both double div again
Do your own DD. I鈥檓 right 50% of the time
 
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yes agree the infrastucture is already there so the margins are great. And they are being granted by government to get out of business and supported by the anti climate changers to stay in the business. Win Win Win
 

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I鈥檓 sure glad I鈥檓 on the back end of my farming career. I have zero interest in buying anything anymore. I rent one quarter and own everything else. Hate to be renting a whole bunch of land in the coming yr. Just the inputs could sink you, let alone another drought. I hope land keeps rocketing, but just like commodities will have to know when the best time to pull the pin to get out. Can鈥檛 see land crashing, too many hungry guys still want to compete in this vicious game.
 

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I鈥檓 sure glad I鈥檓 on the back end of my farming career.
Same situation, When I was younger farming did feel like a rat race. Since than took my time and enjoyed things more and not worried with losing rented land.
A good question should what should 8000 an acre land rent for? In my area rent is in the 140 an acre range. If you look at a 3 % return shouldnt it be at least 240 an acre rent? I guess I am at the age where you are looking at it as a producer and a retirement wage.
 

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240$ rent less the property tax would be less than 3%. Why own the land when you can get well over 3% anywhere else.
Me too I hope the land keeps going up. The more it go鈥檚 up the wealthier I get for doing nothing. As for it going down? Well鈥 there will be a correction one day. But when馃し鈥嶁檪锔
 

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Won鈥檛 go down till interest rates go up. Once you can鈥檛 get free money look out
 

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Me too I hope the land keeps going up. The more it go鈥檚 up the wealthier I get for doing nothing. As for it going down? Well鈥 there will be a correction one day. But when馃し鈥嶁檪锔
This is only true if you plan to sell out. If you are in a position to have another generation who wants to continue the farm, then it's not so beneficial. Makes it much harder for those actually. We recently marked a 100 years on our farm. 4th gen now and my nephew thinks machinery is pretty interesting, so here's hoping for another generation yet.
 

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Not sure if anyone has got any new crop spring prices yet....
But I was recently , shall we say, "gently" quoted NH3 prebuys look like they will be in the 1900/mT range.. possibly up to 2 K. Gross absolutely gross...
 

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Bought my fertilizer Tuesday. Had bought 2021 supply first week of Jan. this year, so was priced at fall 2020 price. Compared to those numbers, price was up avg. of 92%. Had to pay minimum 50% to secure order.
At current corn and soy prices I presold enough to cover the cost.
Fertilizer company currently has some inventory, each saleman allotted an amount to sale to long time customers only. Next supply of fertilizer is apparently priced higher with no expected delivery date. As for glysophate, no inventory, no idea of price when they get some.
 

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Not sure if anyone has got any new crop spring prices yet....
But I was recently , shall we say, "gently" quoted NH3 prebuys look like they will be in the 1900/mT range.. possibly up to 2 K. Gross absolutely gross...
Why should that surprise you? 46 is around same price per lb and sounds like supply will be the problem.

Best part of NH3 is it sounds like if you don鈥檛 take it all in spring there keeping your money to cover the spread on reset they expect in June or July
 

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With the exception of CO-OP, there still seems to be supply available in my area. For dry fertilizer no one is offering any spring pricing currently. Bringing home the last of my dry requirements today. Pretty much the same story as @gleaner l for cost vs last year.

Last glyphosate price I got was $14/l. I do happen to need a few hundred litres more. I'm not sure if I should buy this now at this 3x price, or wait until June and hope that the prices will crash back to more normal levels.
 

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With the exception of CO-OP, there still seems to be supply available in my area. For dry fertilizer no one is offering any spring pricing currently. Bringing home the last of my dry requirements today. Pretty much the same story as @gleaner l for cost vs last year.

Last glyphosate price I got was $14/l. I do happen to need a few hundred litres more. I'm not sure if I should buy this now at this 3x price, or wait until June and hope that the prices will crash back to more normal levels.
Yesterday Farmers Business Network was still quoting Smoke 540 glypho at $12.50/L in 1000 litre totes and $13/L in 500 litre totes.
Available for Jan delivery I think.
I think the price of glypho will top out near $20/L in june thru sept.
Then hopefully over winter (after the olympics) china will go back to max production and some shipping issues will be sorted out and ocean freight will come down to historic "average" pricing and that should mean prices of chem, parts etc could drop back quite a bit from these super inflated prices??
 

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If you have CA$H and your operation is debt free then buying land is always a good bet. I don't ever recall anyone EVER regretting a land purchase. But if you're leveraged everywhere and are borrowing to buy high priced land then good luck to you! There's more to life than prostituting yourself to Nutrien or John Deere just to attach your name to little squares on a county landowners map!
 
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