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Discussion Starter #1
I know its an odd time of year to be talking about this but what does everybody think of the prices available now for 46-0-0? I got a quote of $350/tonne if I took delivery by the end of the month. I thought that sounded good, seeing the last two years have been near the $600 range. Thoughts?
 

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I may be young and a bit dumb... but NOT biting the bullet (did my first pre-book, ever, last March).

Fertilizer will go down more; I think we're in for a lot lower grain prices if this economy doesn't get better - not because of the fundamentals of the trade, but the fact that the entire market is full of get-rich-quick-don't-know-what-grain-looks-like type traders. $350 looks good now - what happens if corn drops to $1.50, or canola to $6? Does it still look good then?

If you can balance it out, you should be alright, if that doesn't make you money what would be the point? I can't see fertilizer going up any time soon.


Just my $0.02.
 

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350 is lower then what it was this spring but is it really that low? What is the historical low? Thats the price I will lock in at.

Another thing too consider. I remember someone telling me they would never take delivery of fert. in July for use next may. After much chipping and poking they said it just wasn't worth it.

It bugs me that the fert. comps. are foisting this pre buy inventory on us. I thought the well run company practises a just in time inventory strategy not pu your money into a commodity that may or may not go up or down in price.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
I agree that the fundamentals say it should go lower, but as Andy said, that doesn't always happen. If that were the case we wouldnt have had $500-$600/tonne urea this spring. Rather than dropping prices, they created a scare by saying there could be a shortage, thus keeping prices up. The dealers also kept saying they had to get rid of the high priced inventory so they couldnt sell cheaper.

I dont trust that these companies will pass their savings on inputs (Natural Gas) to the consumer.

Have any of you ever taken delivery this early for the next spring? I heard that if you mix floor dry into the fertilizer it will keep the moisture out. Does that work for this length of time?
 

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We have pre bought in the mid to late fall. In our hoppers we usually just need to put a couple of bags of floor dry in before the fertilizer to get rid of the moisture at the bottom of the bin. Thats where you have the big issues. We then bag the top so that no rain or snow can blow in under the lid. Seems to work well.
 

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The reason prices stayed high this spring was because elevators/ fert retailers bought their stocks at $1,300/ton last fall, and they can only mark it down so far before going broke.

Fertilizer manufacturers screwed retailers, retailers screwed farmers, and farmers... got screwed.

Two years ago, you had China shut down all of its own plants for the Olympics, and then had them buying like crazy to beautify everything for the Olympics (yes, they bought thousands of tonnes of fertilizer for flowers and lawns).

China's production is back up to normal, and the poor economy is reducing demand. Western Canada doesn't look to be doing all that well, so I'd think demand will remain lower than normal - especially if there's little rain from now until freeze up.

Fertilizer manufacturers have not sold all of their old inventory, and no matter what kind of a sissy fit their CEOs get into, shutting down production will cost them much more money than making slim margins on what they do sell.

I was looking for some N to top-dress Timothy after the first cut - Co-Op has liquid 28-0-0 for $205/ton cash price, delivered on farm, today - this is new production fert coming straight out of Koch in Brandon.
 

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i am top dresssing with 2800 for 225 a tonne, about a month ago my last quote was 405, talk of 30 cent anhydrous for fall, things are looking good , also under 400 for phos
 

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What he said. Works fine.
 

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as of right now for le dry
46-0-0 -- $225.55 a ton
21-0-0-24s -- $194.76 a ton
0-0-62 -- $529.19 a ton
11-52-0 -- $332.93 a ton
sulfur -- $205.11 a ton
gypsum -- $154 a ton

urea is the lowest I have seen it in almost 7 years.
and word is the prices may be coming down a lil more but i wouldnt look forward to it.

liquid
32-0-0 -- $219 a ton
0-0-25-17s -- $612 a ton
10-34-0 -- $422 a ton
0-0-0-10s-6ca -- $265 a ton
17-0-0-8.8ca -- $210 a ton
12-0-0-26s -- $243 a ton
3-18-18-1s -- $322 a ton
liquid zinc sulfate 11.5%zn-5.3%s -- $312 a ton
 

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We just bought 140 tons 46-0-0 at $290/ton. Don't know if it will go lower then that but it was cheap compared to last year. Last year we bought the same amount at $450 and the lowest it got was $410 until now.
 
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