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I been farming for four years and been coasting on marketing my grain. So i would like to hear what you do and learn something. Where do you go for news that affect the grain movements and price. Do you use technicals and charts when the market is over sold or bought? Who do you think that is good at describing where the markets are going? When do you decide to make a basis contract or to do a futures contract. When do you hedge? What are good websites to check out?

Thanks alot
 

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My best advice and the ONLY thing that is rock solid....is figure out your costs, like do a really good job of this factoring in everything. Then break that down as cost per acre for each crop. At least you have a basis then. Then you can start marketing your crop when you understand what kind of profit you are getting. Set targets (triggers) on $ amounts that your happy with, if they trigger and you're turning a profit then great! Good marketing is selling on your terms when you know what you need and not because your have to, waiting to try to hit the peak is the wrong marketing strategy. And no matter what anyone or any professional market info, charts, data etc....the fact of the matter is that no one knows squat and you have to take everything with a grain of salt. No one can predict anything, speculators are just that, speculators. So many factors weigh into these decisions. So if you keep informed and use info to help you decide where things are going, figure out what you need and sell year round to average it out.
 

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I agree with mustang on cost - abbsoulute paramount - i work of $ per tonne cost. I would love to get accurate world stock supply numbers as i have seen major hikes in prices when they all of sudden work out that we have less than 90 days supply of wheat for world market, but you never know if these figures are distorted? I am in mining and for iron ore - you can pretty much find where every tonne is and rate of consumption - weather its in the mine - sea borne - stock piled and consumption rate.
 

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X80, interesting article. I find it funny we have to tell the gov what's in our bins but they don't...along with the oil companys.
 

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I can never understand this labour goverment, if they made reporting figures compulsory so the market would be better informed, at the moment would almost certainly drive the price of wheat up - especially quality wheat, hence they could collect more tax!!! They constantly do themselves out of money???

I cannot believe there is more transperency with iron ore than food?? even with China involved!!
 

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I will dis-agree slightly with the cost-of-production theory. If a crop is consistently returning less than COP then you should stop growing it if you can or figure out why you aren't growing enough. Most field crops are well above COP on a normal year now because of the last half-dozen years of high prices.

My theory is to maximize production and to use whatever means reasonable to do this, always evaluating ROI for each input. For marketing I try to maximize revenue. That starts with bin storage for the whole crop to negotiate better basis levels, although there have been some decent basis levels off-combine in recent years (every year is different). I like to look at charts but I don't profess to be an expert at them.:rolleyes: I like to get a sense of where prices are historically and when charts are at recent highs or "areas of upward resistance". That is often a good time to sell. Price might go higher but not selling it all at once will give you more to sell later.;) In recent years markets are cycling quite frequently so you often get second chances if patient.;)

I agree that when every "expert" seems to be agreeing that maybe caution is advised. Most people are just echoes and the REAL experts usually keep their mouths shut.:rolleyes:

I market grain year-round but schedule winter deliveries because that is when I have time to deliver it. Time constraints may be an influence for your situation as well.

One could discuss this topic for a long time.;)

Good website here: Barchart.com - Commodity, stock and forex; quotes, charts & analysis
 

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My theory is to maximize production and to use whatever means reasonable to do this, always evaluating ROI for each input. For marketing I try to maximize revenue.
I think this is very good advice and do this as well. Even if it takes 4 passes with the sprayer...
 

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I been farming for four years and been coasting on marketing my grain. So i would like to hear what you do and learn something. Where do you go for news that affect the grain movements and price. Do you use technicals and charts when the market is over sold or bought? Who do you think that is good at describing where the markets are going? When do you decide to make a basis contract or to do a futures contract. When do you hedge? What are good websites to check out?

Thanks alot
Here are few tips:
1.Understand the limitations of price forecasting.
2.Understand and follow the grain markets closely
3.Be familiar with the grain marketing terminology
4.Be familiar with the types of marketing alternatives offered
5.Have a thoughtful written marketing plan.
 

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build a few key relationships with a few grain buyers in your area and maybe one that sees a larger area outside of yours. they will be more in the loop than ANY experts you can hire. they have no reason to lie to you as you will not take your business back if they do

do not pay anyone $2- $4 or whatever an acre. they are guessing and just regurgitate what you can find on your own. infact i see some class actions coming down the pipe for some of these "EXPERTS"
 

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We're pretty much old school. We try to sell for more than it took to produce, hope we can get by the weather/pests/unintended wrecks each year, and, if not, hope for a better year next year. So far so good :cool:

Also we've developed some good local markets through the many years:)
 
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