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Discussion Starter #101
the USD rise is a flight to safety because it is the most liquid asset on the planet. It is the official reserve currency and can be used anywhere for anything. If it was anything other than a flight to safety the taiwanese dollar would be appreciating faster than any other right now.

The PD's have a lot of their own shares to put up for collateral.

The economy has been increasingly built on consumer discretionary spending. Service and luxury industries drive the markets far more than the necessities. Lock the consumer in their house for a month and that gets destroyed. Social isolation for a month is the black swan. We are seeing the perfect example of complexity creating fragility. I have not heard anything from Nicholas Taleb yet but this is the perfect example of his discussions.

The consumer snd industry has leveraged themselves up to an insane level in the last 30 years, and increasingly so in the last 10. Leverage amplifies everything, both profit and loss. The profits that were amplified are gone, there is nothing to buffer the amplified losses now. I think the market is still a long ways overpriced with this turn of events.
 

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Discussion Starter #102
A lot of what is going on reminds me of Richard Bookstabbers discussion in "A Demon of our own Design" where he described the collapse of LTCM and how that triggered the 87 crash. There are a lot of big players in trouble and we will not know who and why for a while. The fact that we can't see it make me wonder how much of a crisis there is in the derivatives market. Who signed what contract that has been triggered.
 

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Discussion Starter #104
The fact that grains (ex corn) are grabbing a bid today can be seen as a positive for the industry.
 

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The fact that grains (ex corn) are grabbing a bid today can be seen as a positive
What if the outside money floods back in the food/grain commodities.? Kenmb, is it possible the corna virus will make people think of the basic essentials. This is the first time since the dirty thirties that people are fearing essential living items and mass unemployment. That money would create a huge pop in the market likeTrump was predicting yesterday. That and also china s plan to strengthen there hog industry. As farmers, we may come thru this stronger than we were before. Sorry for the last statement , sounding like trump, my bad for the anti trumpers.!
 

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My wife just sent me a video a friend of hers sent of a costco in the center of the universe (toronto) and there was a lineup outside of people and shopping carts that had to be a mile long.

As to working back to farmers I doubt it. But I think I feel a sniffle coming on.....can’t see how I’m going to get that crop in...?. Just saying!

Edit: Thought I read a day or two about Russia starting to look into or guarantee grain stores something like a X time supply. Can’t remember the amount or where I seen it.

Then there is Canada saying about “confiscation of property”. As in grains??? In month 15 of the apocalypse? ?
 

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Discussion Starter #107
There will be a drop in ethanol usage so that is hitting the corn. North america and many other places in the world will consume 13 months of food this year due to spoilage from hoarding. the disruptions to a rather complex food system will be felt for some time. Money will look for a home, commodities were the home in 08, will have to see if they are the home this time.
 

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I remember it as well. Commodities definitely rallied after the **** dump. Only thing was China’s economy was on full throttle and pulled everything with. That isn’t gonna to be the saving grace this time.
 

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Discussion Starter #109
I don't see any spectacular outlooks for anything right at this second but sometimes you bet on a three legged horse if the rest of them only have two legs.
 

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Good to see all the nuances people are considering. Shows people are thinking about what could occur instead being told what will happen. Notice those experts, economists and bankers were always able to tell you things are fine and they have things under control. As Yellen said a couple years ago "there will not be another recession". What they never told you is their only answer is more debt. That is the hidden secret of money Mike speaks of. How many people actually understand how our monetary system works and what happens when debt keeps being added. I don't mean to sound like a gold bug or anything, I am simply pointing out facts. It is how the system works. It is baked in the cake. All this talk of investing in stock markets and beating inflation is all about trying to beat a system that is working against you. But very few people understand. They are playing in a casino and don't even recognize it.

So I do hope people think about the basics. Spend all your life chasing $$$s and not even understand what money or assets are. Because in the casino these things don't matter - you are playing with casino chips (which are $$$s). Assets are what you walked into the casino with in the first place and got a bunch of casino chips. It is actually possible to stay outside of the casino, not even play, and have assets hold their value over generations. I am figuring this all out as I go, over years. Why I post like this is that it helps my thought process. Putting things in words clarifys my thinking.

I keep saying the same things to friends. Watch Mike Maloney videos. If you see them as a gold bug trying to hit the jackpot then too bad, you are too far gone. Enjoy your stay in the casino. Mike tells you how the monetary system works and the world around you. He is saying owning gold and silver is the result of the understanding. As farmers we don't need to own metals because we have lots of other assets. But what he tells you is valid still. This week is even more important to understand what Mike is saying because it is playing out around you right now.

After this many years you have to beleive our financial system is legitimate or not. I see it as not. If I am correct and some of you agree with me then you need to understand we represent a very small % of the population. Everyone else is chasing $$$s which are simply casino chips in a rigged casino. It is rigged to steal your wealth. So the big picture is this:
Let's say the system is rigged and must be changed to help everyone yet the majority of people don't even know it must be changed. How do you do it. How do you make some people start to see it must be changed.

I see that destroying credibility of central banks is step 1. And I see that working except the beer flu is a distraction.
I am also seeing an angle of attacking the $US world reserve currency. This actually underpins the present corrupt system. So I am wondering if you would use this feature as a means to take the system down and say "see, this is why it has to change". So I am thinking we will keep seeing the $US climb which destroys all other currencies. The all powerful $US and flight to safety and yada, yada, all say so. But it really doesn't matter. Keep the pattern going and the $US become the only thing to own because it's reserve status and you eventually have everything else at no bid. The system halts, world reserve currency backed by nothing is the blame and so we get a new system. All that is left to find out is if good guys or bad guys are putting together the new system.

Thats what I am mulling over the last few days. Subject to change as events change.
 

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Looking at grain markets today and for some reason the colors on the screen are green and there is this weird + symbol in front of them. Anyone know what that is?
 

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Discussion Starter #112
Looking at grain markets today and for some reason the colors on the screen are green and there is this weird + symbol in front of them. Anyone know what that is?
Usually it is the interest added to the loan payment.
 

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Discussion Starter #114
you can be assured that if our commodities start to run the .gov's will put a stop to it in a hurry.
 

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I think that means tested + for covid-19 but might be wrong. A screenshot? Lots of things green today. Wonder if we will see the trademark wbipshaw again.

To build on my casino analogy since it is working in my head alright. A guy might be able to play the USD if you wanted an angle to try and get in on. I will accept anyone's explanation of why the USD will rise or fall. Right now I am thinking it will keep on rising. And if it does think about all the countries with debt to service because they piled into "cheap debt". That debt isn't so cheap if denominated in USD and if it is rising above when you first signed your papers. Yes there are lots of these hedge strategies (casino games) to minimize the risk but if/when things come unglued those all come undone, and fast. The take away is that if you are playing the USD then you are in the casino. You can be up or down but it is all relative to what else is happening in the casino. Comparing your USD to land prices means you are still in the casino because those land prices are often driven by debt and that debt is a function of the casino. The only honest way to know where you are at is to cash out and step outside of the casino. You cash out with moving to real assets. The crazy part is the casino is pretty much the entire reality. You have to almost cash out to assets and then go back into the casino to see where things are again. People find it hard to understand what an asset is. Gold and silver are mentioned because they are easily portable assets. Land is an asset but harder to take with you. People who spend their life in the casino don't even recognize an asset anymore. They think there is no need. If they have a bad year in the casino they just go back again to recoup . But each year the casino takes a little more, call it a service charge (inflation applied to the chips you take).

To get to Oat King's point, and something I have been saying for a long time - people need to relearn assets and dollars. The dollars are a unit of account, the underlying item is the asset. The asset will always be the asset, the units of account (dollars) vary. But you need to be outside the casino to see it. It's the greatest scam pulled on man.

And if it is the greatest scam ever pulled then it is done because everything is controlled. And that is why I keep mentioning controlled interest rates as one example. And if everything is controlled then what is happening right now is likely controlled. If you take a logical position that the USD will sell off then right now I disagree. If I take the position everything is controlled then the intent is to drive the USD ever higher. We will see.

The fake stuff can go wherever - stock prices, over valued corporations, negative rate treasuries etc.. But something real like food and grains may not be allowed to go crazy. The items part of a real world and represent real assets may not get too crazy. Oil has been over priced for a long time, that comes back to Canadians oil being produced at $30 and selling for $70 because economists say so. I am not looking at selling any grain for some time. I beleive real assets will be recognized soon and that includes food. Regardless of what stock indexes do.
 

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Thinking the only good in this is, my favorite stock to see take a good hit is SNC Lavalin. Morneau Shepell still hanging in, damn.
Don't worry, those companies will be safe, I guarantee it. In fact, I bet they come out smelling like roses.
 

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Looking at grain markets today and for some reason the colors on the screen are green and there is this weird + symbol in front of them. Anyone know what that is?
Grain seems to be holding here in cash markets, especially feed, cattle took a hard hit though, glad I held back my calves, hard to get current numbers but some finally out this morning from earlier this week, 30 cents pretty much across the board for 1000# and under. Add an additional hit last week of 8 to 14 cents on the heavier ones, this is starting to get painful.

Out of curiosity, what are pigs doing?
 

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I beleive real assets will be recognized soon and that includes food.
I really hope so Kenmb, and thats exactly what happened in 2012 when the dust bowl started in the US and grain surge to new highs. Are the Feds trying to corrupt the system now?. Last years floods and crazy hell harvest conditions had little to no impact on commodities. Now how do we fool the Feds and USDA? Is it possible to trick them at there own game.? Just something I think about when I am under the tandem greasing.!
 

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Grain seems to be holding here in cash markets, especially feed, cattle took a hard hit though, glad I held back my calves, hard to get current numbers but some finally out this morning from earlier this week, 30 cents pretty much across the board for 1000# and under. Add an additional hit last week of 8 to 14 cents on the heavier ones, this is starting to get painful.

Out of curiosity, what are pigs doing?
Its been a blood bath here on about everything. Corn is off $.50, soybeans off $1.00, fats and feeders have taken a beating and the hog market followed and got destroyed.

Today corn finished up .10, soybeans up .17 and cattle and hogs both locked limit up.

Be nice to see a "V" bottom here in the market and start the recovery climb but I'm guessing we'll see red again shortly.

Everyone is spooked right now, processors went from at the option or +.01 basis to -.10 to .15. No one is sure if this country is going to keep running for four weeks or get a nation wide shut down, which seems highly unlikely but if you told me 10 days ago that I'd be subject to arrest simply by exercising my First Amendment right to assemble I'd of said you were nuts.
 
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