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Discussion Starter #1
Everyone else noticed how fast canola is dropping? Glad I pre-sold some this fall for a decent price, just wished I had done more. Anyone think these prices will stay, today we are down to under $11/bu? Usually this doesn't happen until closer to harvest. Looks like the PROJECTED soybean and corn crops are the culprits. Comments or concerns
 

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No I think we'll be fine, its normal for prices to go down to normal levels. I wouldn't worry now, worry if they are still crappy in December.
 

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Everything seems to be trending down now, largely based on projections of a bumper crop. I have to say I'm a little lukewarm on that one despite our crops looking very good at the moment. Consider the frost in the deep south, large areas of drought in the corn belt, late seeding in the eastern prairies and I'm finding it hard to believe we can expect anything more than a normal crop. We're in good shape, but 3 weeks later than normal and temps dropped down to 9C after the last full moon. If we catch a late August frost in the prairies, quality is going to take a drastic downturn in a hurry. I think we're going to see a scramble to procure quality stocks by Sept/Oct... the question is how many of us will have the high quality grains to cash in on it. But then again, I'm the guy that predicted $16 plus canola last year, so take it for what it's worth...
 
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pricess will rebound they usually do, wheat was climbing a bit today, the rest will come up to, but was told by our marketing advisor to have enough storage this year because prices in harvest might be awful (unless an epic event occurs)
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Compared to the last few years, canola prices right now are awful, $4/bu drop relatively quickly. Anyway, still better than $6/bu days. It will be interesting to see what kind of yields are reported out of the states. I have a funny feeling, corn average might be higher than some guys think, USDA might not be that far off this year....time will tell.
 

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USDA is predicting 153bu/ac corn
Informa is predicting 160bu/ac corn
Last Years Corn yield was 123bu/ac
I hate that corn is king but that's the way it is.
 

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Here is a question:
If you were a betting person and would like to buy some canola options which would you buy today?
Puts or calls?
Nov 2013 500 calls are $10.90/mt
Nov 2013 490 calls are $14.60/mt
Jan 2014 500 calls are $14.40/mt
Jan 2014 490 calls are $18.60/mt

I'm leaning towards the calls. I just have not seen the market drop so much so fast before (excluding the paper money meldown in 2008)
 

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I like how some people know it is coming back if that is the case and they know it is coming back I always tell them you better buy some calls then you will be a hero to your wife when you make that profit . If they keep getting timely rain only for a few more weeks in Iowa and Ill. $4. Corn is going to look pretty good.
 

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I always hope it is coming back, never could say I know it's coming back.

A wise professor once told me that "the market doesn't care what you think"
 
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