A month or so back a JD vice president was quoted on DTN as saying they do not want to get into the boom and bust cycles they have had in the past. They will not be ramping up production very much for any equipment.
This will support used equipment prices, as well as dealer bottom lines. If the good times continue another year, it will be interesting to see what JD does when JD sees market share erosion to red, yellow, and galvanised.
Right now there are guys that farm 1000 acres buying new tractors so this boom cannot last forever. But if you buy a new tractor they don't want you old one.
I noticed that 9650's with the same hours are up 40,000 from two years ago when we bought ours.
Kind of funny you can telll supplies are short because I noticed that there is a John Deere 714 17 shank coulter chisel sitting down at the dealership. You never see anything like that around here. I guess mabey they could not buy anymore disk rippers. It's sat there since it got there so we are going to have them bring it out this fall if it is still there.
Dolla's purty cheap boys and gals.
What percentage of Deere's new equipment is heading out of country?
BTW: local Cathouse made in profit first three quarters of 07 as of all 06.........4th quarter for all makes is usually the biggy........this equipment thing is ALL colors.
Am having a hard time understanding where all this equipment is going.
Dirty used equipment brings low $ at auction, even if its green.
Went to a sale about a week ago and every thing on his sale went way to high. He had a 874 brent bring 23000 and it needed new flighting. 9650 walker W/ 30.5's and 929 sep. hrs 121000. that went to kansas. It was all well maintained so that helped out.
Quote:Close friend of mine bought a Trinity belt trailer new 11 years ago for 35,000 sold it last month for 32,000. Go figure
Intesting statement, there, Silagehauler.
Most of the active posters here, are really too young to remember just 27-37 years ago, when just about every major piece of farm machinery did just that. Unless something was literally wrecked or worn-out, it was nothing to see 5-15 year old combines bring as much as or even a little more than they sold brand-new for! Example given; a 1975 John Deere 6600 was purchased by a good friend of mine [bought new] for $22, 500 something. It was labeled as a corn, grain model. He upgraded to a new Model 7720 in 1979 or 1980, and sold the still cherry 6600 for $27,000 [talked down from $29,500]. This was in north central Texas, too.
I still remember old Model 45's to 95's in the back row of what was then Settle Equipment Co. in McKinney, TX, in 1977, priced at $6,500 to $13,000 something.
Somewhere around 1985, with the surge of farm foreclosures, bank land-grabbing gone amuck, further depressed commodity prices, etc, the bottom started to fall out of the once mighty, fully appreciable used farm equipment market. Combines and other harvesters or seasonal-use machines were hit the hardest. I watched in horror as rows of once valued combines sold at maybe only 10 percent of what that dealer had asked for, only 1-2 years before. Many went to scrap/salvage or worse. I suppose any farmers who wanted a combine just got one, even if they really did not know what to do with it, once it got home. Yes, I saw my share of that, too, here in Oklahoma. We only use our combines for one main crop, with only a percentage of combinable fall crops here.
Gotta give credit where credit is due. Thank you President Carter for the insane inflation of the late 70's where a worn out piece of machinery would sell for more than than you bought it for thanks to a devalued dollar.
Wait this is starting to sound familiar (minus the inflation part- so far)
It's already running the used stuff up. I've been watching prices on comparable tractors going up 10000 since this time last year. Which I guess is good for our stuff's value, but kinda sucks since we are trying to find a good used 9600/9610. Prices on those are ranging like crazy...
Quote:Went to a sale about a week ago and every thing on his sale went way to high. He had a 874 brent bring 23000 and it needed new flighting. 9650 walker W/ 30.5's and 929 sep. hrs 121000. that went to kansas. It was all well maintained so that helped out.
I know that farmer, installed cylinder bars in that combine 2 years ago, a year ago worked on it couple times. They take very great care of the machinery, like one of the famliy.
The thing is they bought a new 70 Series combine from us and will be renting a tractor and drill this spring, all the acres will be soybeans.
Just speaking in generalities, not of your specific example Ness. But what did a new combine cost in 1980, 1990, 2000, and now in 2008?
Is there really that much more value in the new machine?
Or is inflation (or artificial inflation ie.. markup by mfg) keeping the value of used iron stable or even increasing it?
We are devaluing our dollar, in the short term it is great for commodity prices to compete on the world market, Bernanke dropped rates 75 points today. But this may not be a good thing for all of us in the long haul. It will come back and bite us in the a**. Farmers spend money when we have it, it is just our nature. So times are good lets all buy new machinery and not pay taxes, lets all bid up land prices/rent prices we need to expand to take advantage of the never ending gravy train!!!
I have an idea, lets put the money in the bank and wait. Cuz the s**t is gonna hit the fan. And when the Fed needs to curb inflaton and rates at the local bank are double digits, and we are all over extended and paying thru the nose on the rented land we just had to have...
John Deere will finally be caught up with production and we can all get that shiny new whatever that we have all been waiting for.
(God, who pissed in my cheerios this morning!! after I posted it and read it again, I sound kinda *****y)
I do agree with you, Pharmer, on the newer stuff. It just flat depreciates now. I was just reminiscing on how once upon a time, farm machinery was almost as good an investment as real estate or stocks and bonds. LOL!
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