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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Ok I know this will likely cause WW3, but what's people thoughts on selling this years crop...warehouse until march? Sell it ASAP and be done with it...has anyone played the swaps etc...

I may look at warehousing the toolondo grain...just got to research how that works?....

Ant....
 

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Really playing it by ear this year. Delivering into the system doesn't look that attractive to me. Sold some canola yesterday direct to an end user which made me better off by about $35/t on farm. Will most likely be storing barley and selling the majority on deferred delivery contracts, some prices I've been looking at look pretty attractive holding onto it until Feb/Mar. Just wish I had more storage, Because in my area it is a massive advantage being able to sell directly to end users. I think the feed market could be really strong this year, I have a feeling that the only thing that could hurt the feed market now is some big rains in northern NSW and QLD allowing a lot of sorghum to be planted.
 

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In the absence of a domestic market which I realize you guys aren't . My strategy which seems to be working reasonably so far relies on taking small slices of the market over time, participating in the market only on bullish views. Should maintain a higher than average price for the year. You need to have a view of the market and the reality is you are a participant by virtue of the fact that you are growing grain.

If you have 5000t to market then on average you need to market 100t a week (I know approximately , you do have a couple of weeks holidays) for the whole year. In an average year price wise 50% of weeks are bullish 50% are bearish. So you need to shift 200t per week on the bullish weeks.

This is my first time trying this reasoning. Because I was bearish on wheat I have been more active in the wheat market. I probably have sold 50% expected production before harvest at an average of $285. My lowest sales were $267 my highest were $316. I am probably averaging $285. You could argue that I could have sold all my production today at $285 but it would have been pretty depressing and would influence your decision making process when price was $260. My budgeted figure was $275. I made two sales below $275 at $270 and $267 respectively.

Most marketing opportunities in the last five years have occurred before August . Markets thrive on uncertainty. Australia represents the last of the worlds harvests coming off. To say that you are going to sell grain later says that you are thinking you will be able to pull the proverbial rabbit out of a hat of a major production short in a seemingly huge world crop. The prices we have now are due to the uncertainty of harvest weather, grab them with both hands. The only other opportunity for increase is with a shipping short. Unless you are tied into a marketer or have very significant quantities to sell you won't hear about it. Sorry to be cynical.
 

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Set Traget prices over time frames, if you have a good handle on what your cost are and were profit is that helps sets targeted prices. I probly have forward sold to much the way prices have kicked but always say f---ing good year if forward sold is lowest priced. I don't forward sell below a price I'm happy to take.
 

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In the absence of a domestic market which I realize you guys aren't . My strategy which seems to be working reasonably so far relies on taking small slices of the market over time, participating in the market only on bullish views. Should maintain a higher than average price for the year. You need to have a view of the market and the reality is you are a participant by virtue of the fact that you are growing grain.

If you have 5000t to market then on average you need to market 100t a week (I know approximately , you do have a couple of weeks holidays) for the whole year. In an average year price wise 50% of weeks are bullish 50% are bearish. So you need to shift 200t per week on the bullish weeks.

This is my first time trying this reasoning. Because I was bearish on wheat I have been more active in the wheat market. I probably have sold 50% expected production before harvest at an average of $285. My lowest sales were $267 my highest were $316. I am probably averaging $285. You could argue that I could have sold all my production today at $285 but it would have been pretty depressing and would influence your decision making process when price was $260. My budgeted figure was $275. I made two sales below $275 at $270 and $267 respectively.

Most marketing opportunities in the last five years have occurred before August . Markets thrive on uncertainty. Australia represents the last of the worlds harvests coming off. To say that you are going to sell grain later says that you are thinking you will be able to pull the proverbial rabbit out of a hat of a major production short in a seemingly huge world crop. The prices we have now are due to the uncertainty of harvest weather, grab them with both hands. The only other opportunity for increase is with a shipping short. Unless you are tied into a marketer or have very significant quantities to sell you won't hear about it. Sorry to be cynical.
Like your thinking and WA is very different to here with low domestic use. Domestic market is very different to export. As crazy as it sound best grain I sold last year was apw blended down to sfw1, went at harvest.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Cheers, I don't have enough tonnes really to start allotting over time, I get the point but, I know exactly my cost and due to a my situation this yearit's fairly profitable at the current rates, however I'd be very surprised if I can't pick up the ware housing cost and $10 or so bucks a tonne by holding to late feb early march ish etc...toolondo will harvest early so will most likely warehouse, Portland can nearly go straight off the header or sit in field bins for a month until I boot. I have some costs that need covering in jan but mining can cover that and when grain sold it can pay the savings back...most cost is in April may...everything is paid for as I don't borrow to put crop in or buy gear etc..

Extremely hard to know what quality will be and tonnage with this finish...however the Portland crop has plenty of soil moisture for the majority it does have parts a touch dry...it is looking better every day with dry weather...Forrest is woeful to pick yield due to unevenness...some crops on 12" spacings look great, but at 3.3 rows for every metre it bloody want to in order to obtain yield.

Ant...
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Will see how it is the day it comes of the header, hopefully as u say can just take cash and stick some in savings acc...APW anything above $270 will be nice...hopefully I get a good surprise with tonnes..

Ant..
 

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I have stored my grain on the farm for 10 months and sold for less than I got off the combine.Its a crap shoot some years I paid for a new grain bin by just storing for 4 or 5 months.if you can tell the future you will do ok.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Or I could fire sale for $200 and be the best bloke in town....I'll try maximise best I can...

I don't have the services of Merlin at my disposal....however looking at my beans I may have had a visit??

$400 would allow me to buy some second hand silos and sell to dairy trade...would be nice..

Ant...
 

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Or I could fire sale for $200 and be the best bloke in town....I'll try maximise best I can...

I don't have the services of Merlin at my disposal....however looking at my beans I may have had a visit??

$400 would allow me to buy some second hand silos and sell to dairy trade...would be nice..

Ant...
Have you thought Ant about growing triticale for the dairy farmers specialist. It will yield high and tolerate waterlogging better than wheat. You also have a close by market to cut out the middleman .
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Nig, I think I would need storage? So I can sell in 10-20 tonne lots and deliver as well? I do stop and look at some trit when I go through colac as a guy grows a bit down there, seems to do well, would it handle wet better than Forrest? Need to trial! Might be running out of spots for next year? Price wise where does it sit?

Once I get some storage I have a world of opportunities down here I believe...won't be after this year but after next season would be nice to bang in some silos, even 2nd hand ones of a few different sizes, then could keep some to sell during year.

One thing I have over looked is silage as once wrapped in a bale I don't need storage etc...never see alot of silage bales advertised but, why is that?

Ant...
 

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Silo bags could be good for fodder storage. I am told that once dairy farmers try triticale they don't want to go back. Maybe worthwhile chatting to some about growing some on contract and what they would be prepared to pay. It is possible that you could find someone with their own storage that would be willing to let you use at a price. Cutting out $30 in handling and whatever else in freight would start to pay for some storage if the dairy is just around the corner.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
Cheers Nig, I will ask around and see what they think, I don't know alot of them but will try make some contacts. My block is highway frontage so perfect for advertising as it is bloody busy bit of road between Portland and heywood. Triticale trial booked in!!

A guy once taught me a trick about marketing, he was a hay, grain grower with stock. He would put several adds in the local paper at the start of hay season with 3 or 4 different types of hay for sale, he never had any to sell, whatever got the most request he grew the following season, kept everybody's phone numbers etc, worked a treat, then he wanted to increase yield as most guys wanted oaten hay etc, so again advertised some combinations, with none to sell, now he grows two mixes and doesn't have to advertise, he has his clients..successful bloke!

I might put a sign up at my block for my wheat...I have the freight component as an advantage straight up.

A truck would be so bloody handy as can never really strip before lunch so could be dropping of a load to clients each morning...

I've never borrowed for gear but I am tempted too in order to have a truck....get some silos down the track and who knows I might get this **** show off the ground...

Are peas profitable at 1 t/ha ? Not being rude here was just wondering, or the benefits from the N make it worth it? One thing I don't have close by is a bloody great pig farm or feedlot.

Ant...
 

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Given the choices of peas or beans if you can successfully grow either is beans, just because your wheat crop that follows should be better. I am told beans fix four times the amount of N .Probably easier to harvest too. A lot of guys around here made their fortunes on the wheat crop that follows peas, they are more widely adapted and cheaper to grow. Broadleaf weeds prevent me from growing either of them.
 

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Ant,

From our experience, forget growing trit. We grew it years ago and you're better off going with wheat oats or barley or something a little more tolerant of frost. Unless it's a lot better than older varieties, it was extremely frost sensitive. To the point that we one season we didn't think we had any bad frosts and when the header went in the paddock we barely got seed for next season off it. Would have been better off just to bale the straw or sticking a match in it.

Stick with what you're good at and don't try to chase markets. Also be aware of dairy farmers. Some are good for the money but I know some that I'll never sell to cause if I do I won't get paid. I know it's been said before and it always rings true for me but KISS. Keep it simple stupid.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
Is trit that frost sensitive? The guy at colac grows it every year for some dairy cocky, and it frost like a ******* over there, and we use to grow it up at young in nsw, and it freeze the balls of a brass monkey up there as well?

And don't worry, if anyone is aware of the dairy cocky its me, everyone tells me to sell there but I can't wear a non payer or even late payer when I'm starting this business, I will once I have enough going into grain traders and stock etc, then if some is a month or two late not the end of the world, but in most cases I won't let anything leave until I'm paid, if people don't like it stiff ****, go freight the crap from up north is my view. In saying that one wanted some wheat last year and he was quite happy to pay up front! Will just take my time getting good clients...

Swoop how's your crops look? No pics after the big rigs first seeding year...c'mon..

Ant...
 
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