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I am not understanding why wheat prices are suddenly climbing like they are. I have expected an up turn, but not much in the futures prices. We are way below Portland prices. Because of this I expected that after trains catch up a bit basis would improve. It improved, and futures improved nearly $1 total in north central MT in the past few weeks. One elevator is still piling wheat on the ground. Not complaining, just thinking out load and wondering if I should sell the little bit I have left.
 

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This sounds like an interesting situation......not a situation you will hear about in Western Canada.

What is the wheat price in Montana that they are offering you?
What type of wheat and what protein level?
 

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Discussion Starter #3
We are offered about 6.80 for hard spring 14% protein 12-15 cents per quarter down on protein. Canadian hard spring ha s an offer for over a dollar less than Montana wheat. Haven't looked in a while to be certain.
I remember a couple years ago Montana HRS wheat had a special price on the Portland market. I would guess buyers still pay a premium, just don't advertise it so much.
 

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Regarding the Canadian deals, they will only pay as much as they need to in order to entice sales. Especially since they probably don't need much since I assume everyone in Northern MT had decent crops?

Where in NC MT are you Ian?
 

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There is lots of wheat starting to move south from around here. Talk is that after exchange is factored in HRS prices are approaching $7/bu!

If I had any wheat I would be heading for the border yesterday.;)

Also if anyone has a spare tri-axle trailer laying around I would advertise it now....they are in high demand.
 

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Ya we are doing the same thing, new tri's of any make seem we cant get one until march/april at best, so found a good 2012 wilson instead to test the waters with. Seems like just what swman says getting closer to 7 after the exchange, so all things considered after freight I think a guy will net at a minimum a buck a bushel better than delivering anywhere up here.
 

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Most of the wheat in central KS looks very poor right now. We dusted ours in and it didn't come up until the second rain on it. It came up very thin and has shrunk since the cold weather hit. We will know a lot more in a month after we see if it greens up and grows, but right now it looks like a lot of winter kill. The markets could be responding to that.
 

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Discussion Starter #10
I am near Shelby area. If you didn't get hailed out, you had a good crop last year. One of my land lord said I set a new record since his farm was homesteaded. This cold can't be helping the winter wheat down south. Much of mine never came through last fall after it got dry. I made sure to have enough seed on hand to reseed it all if I have to.
 

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I have trouble seeing how it would pay for someone in west central sask to haul south of border. Maybe if your in south sask it might pay? If I have 12 pro wheat I would still only get 4.50 after trucking.
Montana price 14 pro wheat-6.80
Minus a dollar for Canadian wheat-5.80
Minus 1.20 for 12 pro wheat - 4.60
Minus .70 for trucking 5.5 hours to havre Montana -3.90
Plus .60 for exchange rate-4.50 after all said and done
Am I figuring this out right? My figure for trucking was quite low as I doubt a whoever I hire to haul would not be able to find back haul plus any costs or hassle shipping grain across border?
 

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Dumb question. . . .since I don't know anything about your area and cross border trading. . .why is Canadian wheat cheaper? What's the difference?
 

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Basically our elevators and railway can't handle the large crop we grew in western canada. The elevators have a 2 dollar basis to disencouage selling. So wheat which is 6.5 on futures we only get 4.50 for rightnow...
 

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West Central, I image hauling urea out of Medicine Hat would be an easy back-haul to find if doing a Havre MT delivery.
 

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Basically our elevators and railway can't handle the large crop we grew in western canada. The elevators have a 2 dollar basis to disencouage selling. So wheat which is 6.5 on futures we only get 4.50 for rightnow...
That has me a little confused. Maybe someone can correct me if im wrong. In my mind, our wheat price is based off the MGE. And if the MGE is in the US, it is priced in US dollars. So in Canadian dollars, the price should be roughly 10% higher. Making the basis closer to -$2.65(not the exact number I know). Am I thinking this wrong, or are the grain companies just trying to make me slightly less unhappy by not converting the dollar?
 

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Basically our elevators and railway can't handle the large crop we grew in western canada. The elevators have a 2 dollar basis to disencouage selling. So wheat which is 6.5 on futures we only get 4.50 for rightnow...
Ok . . :confused: The way your post read, it sounded like if you loaded up a truck and drove it yourself to Montana, they would say, "Is that Canadian wheat?" You'd say, "Ya bud, it's Canadian, eh?" And they'd pay you less. So that part still doesn't really make sense in your post above.
 

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The no-til wheat in my neck of the woods is fairing pretty well. The summerfallow'd ground looks pretty tough though.. At least I've had snow on the ground to cover up the plants through this bitter cold we've been getting.
 

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Dumb question. . . .since I don't know anything about your area and cross border trading. . .why is Canadian wheat cheaper? What's the difference?
There is no differance....its all political....not all elevators are $1/bus though....Im getting a 10 cent/bus discount because my wheat is grown in Canada...that may change depending on how bad they want my grain.
 
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