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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Prices are soaring this morning, could be blowing by some resistance levels? Could this possibly be a repeat of 2008?
$18 bu is a long ways to go .. but the possibilities are endless.
 

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My bins are locked until 2022.
Just got done moving 800 bu of mixed durum/barley. 30% barley. Last year sold the bin as mixed grain. This year trying to find a color sorter. Lol what a pia
 

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Something funny is happening the grain side of things. One of Irelands biggest buyers (their usually the worst for low prices) has offered forward prices for 2022 of 241 Euro a ton for green wheat (that's off the combine at 20% or lower) and 221 Euro for barley. Oil seed rape or canola I think you fellas call it is reported to be heading for 700 Euro a ton. The ridiculous prices been quoted for fertilizer has many here saying a half crop will be more profitable then pushing a crop with high inputs. Urea is trading for anywhere between 835 to 865 euro a ton these days. Not much room for a profit when P&K fertilizer is added and overpriced chemicals on top. I'm assuming fertilizer is gone up a lot with you guys as well.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
It’s only Oct 24 and I’m thinking grain companies should be getting a tad bit concerned. My son works for one these companies and as of Nov 1 he will be going on job sharing, working two to maybe three day/wk. How many others will soon be in this same position? Basically, see you next crop yr if you haven’t full time wok by then. How will things look by the end of Feb or Mar?
Grain companies better wake up and smell the coffee. At these prices no one is going to sell ... including me. We are holding the Ace of Spades!!
Once company put the durum price up .25 Thurs
WHOOPTY DOO!!!
Oh ya put targets in ... biggest joke going.
Peavey Mart, and the Coops will soon be sold out of brooms as they try and keep employees busy.
Whatever the amount of grain you have lock your bins ... don’t give into the crooks.
 

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At these prices no one is going to sell ... including me. We are holding the Ace of Spades!!
That's good you're in a position where cash flow isn't a factor in your marketing decisions so you're free to speculate and risk (gamble). While it's true that if all durum producers in Canada came together and marketed in as a bloc you could move the market in your favor pretty far a on a year like this. (Pooling...) But that's unlikely to every happen in my opinion. Not everyone can afford to just sit on their grain, and even if they could, $20+ is an amazing windfall for this year, so many/most are going to take it I think. Marketing is all based on what you believe, and I believe we're nearing the peak. I'm not expecting a crash, though, but I'm skeptical that the price will yet rise dramatically. We're sitting at 60% sold and delivered on #5 durum somewhere in the mid $19 range (after discounts).
 

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All good till everyone says screw it and where not paying that for wheat or canola oil.
What happens when wheat goes to 6 bucks again and Canola goes down to 12.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
We all have bills to pay, we need to move something to pay them. My point is sell what you have to then if possible wait it out. I agree $20 durum is beyond what we could have imagined, but so is everything else.
 

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When you add Covid, delivery and port congestion their is much uncertainty for the wheat market and should help to boost markets.
 

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When you add Covid, delivery and port congestion their is much uncertainty for the wheat market and should help to boost markets.
Not exactly. Ocean rates for boats are going up. Why buy product that spoils if your not sure you will get it? And there’s a point where we price country’s out of this and Durum is somewhat unique because only a few country’s grow it.
Nobody knows what or when bubble goes pop and we will go down way faster then up.
 

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1.5 loads of durum for sale 30 bucks a bushel
 
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Not exactly. Ocean rates for boats are going up. Why buy product that spoils if your not sure you will get it? And there’s a point where we price country’s out of this and Durum is somewhat unique because only a few country’s grow it.
Nobody knows what or when bubble goes pop and we will go down way faster then up.
It was going up

Agree, reversal of fortune could be shocking!
 
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