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Discussion Starter #1
Im just looking for some advice from guys that have been in the game longer than myself. I know its impossible to know where the markets are heading exactly but experience does count for something. Basically I am wondering what peoples feelings are for the hard red milling wheat between now and September. I still have all of last years wheat and am looking to sell it sometime between now or then. This past week the price dropped quite a bit and started to make me wonder why I hadn’t already sold some or all of it.

Is this drop in price going to continue? Is it just because its getting close to spring and prices will rebound afterwards? It looks like it has been typical for the price of wheat to spike in July/August in the past few years so is holding out for then a better idea?

Fortunately I am in a position right now that I dont need to sell it but after spring time I will have inputs to pay for.

Any advice is appreciated and thanks for taking the time to reply.
 

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I wouldn’t expect a huge rally, but state side there has been confusion why it did what it did. Think the traders have been asleep at the wheel, but with Friday’s reports it may started to correct a bit.
 

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If anyone can figure it out, please let me know! We seldom grow wheat, last year was the first time in 5-6 years. Every time we grow it, the market sucks. Got more for our stuff that was snowed on 3 times, was a feed but graded a #3 with 11.8 protein than we can get now for our stuff we got off early and is a #1 11.8 protein. Can get more for the #1 stuff we have now as feed than we can get for it selling it as a #1. What a screwed up market. Not growing any next year.
 

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I understand your thinking Kevlar. I was just looking for educated guesses from others and seeing what others might be doing in similar situations. All my wheat from last year tested between 13.3 and 14.4 and all made #1 so I wont have trouble finding a home for it. Yesterday the local price for #1 13.5 was 6.74 / bushel.

Basically just wondering what other people’s guts are telling them.
 

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If you see a $7 with the price, I would say that's in the money for wheat or durum. Not expecting much other than sideways movement, seasonal tick up at seeding when inventories are lowest. I usually sell my durum may/june.
 

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I would wait until spring seeding is done and see how many acres were put in. This royalty thing may cut into acres and cause a little panic rally early summer. My thinking was $7.50 a bushel would be my trigger, but #1 is in short supply right now, mine is all feed. if we have a super hot dry spring feed wheat may rally as well but you have to be diligent.
Also there is a lot of fallout with carbon tax cutting into production cost which may also cause some nerves to fret on securing supply.
If i had a good inventory i would put one third (or what you need to clear bills) of it at $8 bu on a trigger at your elevator. Just my opinion, take it for what it is worth, and do what you feel comfortable in your gut.
By no means have i ever scored big, Lol.
But i believe there will be no bumper wheat crop for 2019, just to many negatives in the air right now with the will by farmers to produce wheat. (just my speculation).

I wonder how high does the price per bushel have to get before it makes sense to import our needs?
 

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Discussion Starter #8
Thanks Jazz and Combine Pilot. These are the kind of comments im looking for. Im not looking to hit it out of the park. Just not ready to give it away yet if I dont have to but last week made me a little more uneasy.
 

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$6.50 for #1, above 13.5 protein is theft in my opinion. i wouldn't sell any of it, unless, the bill collector was standing behind me with a pen in my back.
 

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I keep getting these amber (durum) alerts from AGT foods for $6.85 like I am supposed to jump out of my seat and run to the bin. I wont move until that's safely over $7. Once St Lawrence is ice free, some seeding intentions are announced and maybe some weather worries is the time to usually sell.
 

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Durum price just took a huge **** couple days ago. Dropped 35 cents
 

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I keep getting these amber (durum) alerts from AGT foods for $6.85 like I am supposed to jump out of my seat and run to the bin. I wont move until that's safely over $7. Once St Lawrence is ice free, some seeding intentions are announced and maybe some weather worries is the time to usually sell.

That's maybe a good thing. I find once elevators etc. start calling looking for something, usually in a week or two the price will take a jump up. They know prices are going up so want to fill the elevators up with the cheap stuff first. Have had a grain brokering company from Alberta calling for a couple months now looking for barley, but their prices are a joke. Told him what were getting for ours picked up and at fist he didn't believe me, but after calling a few times he now believes me. This tells me people are getting short of barley and there will be a price increase shortly. Generally the only time an elevator speaks to me is when there is an opportunity for them to make a good chunk of cash. And maybe because I am a dick and they don't want to deal with me! Sometimes I am too honest with them when I let them know what I think!
 

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All the wheat here was 1 red high protein and basis has been terrible all winter. Elevators tell me there is unit trains of targets in for $7 so don't expect them to ever post a good price, plus they have guys with futures locked in that have zero options on basis now.

We need more livestock production and feed markets.
 

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Not even close if you played fixed price game under wheat board. Pulled 8 something one year if I remember correctly.
Almost nobody in "Western" Canada participated in that record bull market in wheat, but we sure as heck all paid for it when the CWB got caught in that squeeze on Minneapolis futures and couldn't deliver their way out of that position!!! Funny nobody from the federal gov't went back and audited the books to see how much we lost because of that incompetence.:rolleyes:

To capitalize in on that rally you needed the DPC not the FPC if I recall correctly, but that was limited tonnes and got snapped up in previous August(ish). Rest of grain was stuck in the pool, which never saw the high numbers. But any American farmer with wheat in the bin could load up and go to the elevator for payday. That's what they call MARKETING FREEDOM. All the wheat growers in the northern plains of US should say thanks if they held wheat into the spring of 2008 and cashed in.:wink:

But yeah bjtjjl we are near the upper range of normal prices historically, although cash price is a good buck lower than last handful of years with quality being up. Mentally that's hard to take but need to get past that. Very little if any carry in the market and here is a May MN wheat chart. What is this market telling us???

 

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Does anyone know what a historic high is for spring wheat ? Are we not close to it around $7.00?


not by a long shot! must have been around 13 or 14 I had some targets trigger around 9.50. and did some FPC's in the high $8s towards end of the wheat board days too. summer of 17 I remember fall delivery bids around $9 for about a week. was too chicken contract any then though bc it was so dry (hence the high bids!!!!!!!)




a quick look on bar chart showed wheat ran up to $12 US on the futures in 2008 (the good ol days!!!!) not sure what that converted to in farmgate bids. that's going back a long way in memory but I think the Communist Wheat Board missed the boat on most of that big run up that year. I think it was what really put the final nails in their coffin.


the Aussies on here can maybe comment for sure but its over $10 / bu domestic in Australia right now is it not?


exportable stocks have to be every bit as low as they were in both 08 and 13 when the markets had the big runs..... Russia, Europe and Aus all had small crops and Canada / US were not huge. everyone was holding out on price coming around after Russian exports slowed down but they did not. the only 2 differences is that Corn is not in massive shortage this time (so not diverting some wheat to feed) and the massive wrecking ball effects of Senor Trump on the world trade markets. so the scary thing there is that a weather turn around this year likely wont be driving prices up!!!! that being said if things start out dry in Canada / Aus ........ because US winter wheat plantings are really low.


sold most of mine in the fall on 7.25 and 7.40 targets. glad I got out when I did!!!!!


western SK bids still over $7. don't know if that equalizes a bit on E side when TBay reopens or not.


target price contracts work if you get out a head of the market and list before everyone and their dog is starting to dump. wait too long and the will just sit there.
 

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The so called “open market” still has not outdone the $12 Durum I received under the wheat board. Can’t remember which year but haven’t reached it since .
 

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The so called “open market” still has not outdone the $12 Durum I received under the wheat board. Can’t remember which year but haven’t reached it since .
It did in the states. Don't forget all those years you "Western" Canadian durum growers had to keep your durum in the bins so the market wasn't flooded while the US producers got to cash in. Not sure how any durum producer could willfully support that brutal system...they got bent over worse than the HRS growers!:rolleyes:
 
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