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Discussion Starter #1
Full disclosure, I still haven't bought any fertilizer for 2019 crop year yet, just haven't seen any opportunities, or any reason to panic yet.

I realize that Canada's impact on the world market is insignificant, but if as many farmers cancel canola and replace it with less nutrient hungry crops, or lower their yield expectations, will this have enough affect on the fertilizer market to move prices?

Couple that with some acres in US flooded zones possibly not being seeded, or being later than usual, and winter wheat that didn't get top dressed due to wet weather, and the poor economics of many crops to American farmers.

Prices have been higher than justified most of the fall and winter, all indications are that they would fall towards the end to seeding, could it happen sooner?

According to farm futures, many port prices have been dropping, but the retail price has been stubbornly high.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
I wouldn't put too much merit on farmers not seeding canola. My guess is you will still see 20 plus million acres going in.
Not sure how much stock to put in the anecdotal evidence either. I am for sure planting less, as are a few neighbours, a few posters here and Agriville are indicating they will be seeding less.
 

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I don't honestly see prices dropping (for fertilizer) any time soon. I would imagine by now most retailers have got their needs booked and prices set, so no real wiggle room there unless they are willing to take the loss. We never really pre-buy fertilizer, but many will have already, and retailers have a good idea how much they need each year and would have a percentage of it already ordered. As far as canola acres changing, I don't see much of a change there, people talk about cutting back, but when the time comes, most will put in their usual acres. We are doing the same acres as we had planned for. Just as easily as canola took a hit, it can bounce back and another crop can take a hit. I see this canola ban as a temporary thing, until the next election, China's way of showing their displeasure with Trudeau. We are very fortunate that other countries aren't following suit as most other countries don't care all that much for him either.
 

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Friday I was told urea is moving up in price quickly and phos market is likely to bottom soon. This will be on direct loads from the south, doubt your market is any different. I wouldn't be waiting personally, anything Western Canada does is insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Wet conditions in the US could lead to some nitrogen losses that could exceed anything happening in Canada for example.

I'm fully bought but the last quote I had on urea which is a few weeks ago was $488 and 11-52 was $680/tonne, not sure where it is at today.

Some day the tough farm economy could lead to reduction in inputs, but expect that to be after some farm equipment dealers go broke. Current strategy seems to be to grow more to make things budget...
 

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canceled 1000 aces of canola, so much still in storage and no clue how long if ever China will be back.. Swap aces to barley and sell locally.. Tough moves for tough times
 

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I'm fully bought but the last quote I had on urea which is a few weeks ago was $488 and 11-52 was $680/tonne, not sure where it is at today.
Those prices seem pretty decent. We were same last August for urea, and phos was about $35 higher. This early Feb. we were sitting at $530 and $730, when I committed for rest.

Considering we have an Agrium plant only 10 miles away, Urea seems a little high locally.
 

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Very little NH3 was applied in the corn belt last fall and wet conditions do not appear to favor an early start this spring. There is only so much gas that can be moved logistically in a short time frame so many are leaning toward other nitrogen sources as 32% or urea, I forsee those markets to skyrocket shortly.
 

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I'm gunna bet it wont be a significant drop in price. Like fuel it goes down a tad over a long period of time and goes up substantially very quickly if suppliers can dream up any reason at all for it.
 

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Very little NH3 was applied in the corn belt last fall and wet conditions do not appear to favor an early start this spring. There is only so much gas that can be moved logistically in a short time frame so many are leaning toward other nitrogen sources as 32% or urea, I forsee those markets to skyrocket shortly.
My area the one co-op said they got about 70% of the NH3 applied that was booked for the fall, so better than many areas of the corn belt but still below normal for here. I hope it pays off having prepaid my liquid fertilizer for corn back in early January when I could still capture the December price. Was able to get dry P, K and S fall spread here as well so should help. I got away from using any NH3 so unless liquid hits a snag shouldn't have to wait on anything for planting. The nearest co-op charges a bit more for fall NH3 than other areas, so would not be surprised if some farmers here move away from it as well.


Don't know about P and K, but I think N might shoot for the moon soon if everything starts at once. Chances are that a lot of urea and liquid N are already being delivered or are lined up, here it looks to be a bit later start again this spring, going to be at least 3 more weeks before things could go here if it stays warmer and we don't get any rain. Still plenty of snow laying around.
 

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That must have been a pretty good run, I'd venture to say 10-15% of normal acres were covered here. Booked my side dress 32% back in September and got the hog manure all on though it wasn't exactly perfect of decent conditions but I'm sitting pretty good, only 40 acres needs NH3 and I booked that in December.

Pretty sure the dry P and K is pretty well at or above normal, I don't see those markets moving all that much I just think N will take off when it gets moving.
 

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Lots of uncertainty out there yet. Flooding in the US has only just begun. Might be hope for Canadian commodities yet. Sucks how one persons suffering is beneficial to your own operation. Nitrogen under water disappears into the atmosphere and really kills the biology of the soil after long periods of time. Earthworms are gone in those fields. Any amount of rain will add to their misery and the water from Canadas snow melt hasn't arrived yet. Although water hasn't begun moving here yet and is going in the ground rather well. Demand will determine price usually. Problem is they can just stop making it to drive the price up.
 
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