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I know this has been threaded to death but something seems a miss, I believe that the organisations who predict crop yields are not going to make the mistake they made in the mid 2000's where they reported wheat stocks had fallen below 90 days supply for the world and hence we seen pretty high prices, now it seems there are disaster after disaster in cropping regions all over but they still predict a record harvest?
How do they actually calculate the predicted tonnes?
Do they ever release predicted tonnes against actual tonnes?
What percentage of grain is traded untraceable..I.e stock feed or container market?
How do they calculate world wide stocks, I can see how it's done in iron ore bit no idea how they do it for grain...
Obviously governments do not want high grain prices so food is cheap, so there is a conflict of interest when governments are reporting predicted tonnes?
I will go out in a limb here and say in the next 10 years we will see a dramatic price spike in grain like we have never seen, only a spike as one day the predicted will so far off the actual they will only be able to hold face for so long until panic sets in.
At present in Australia, milling wheat is around $270 AUS, in the UK it's a touch under $200 AUS.
Ant...
How do they actually calculate the predicted tonnes?
Do they ever release predicted tonnes against actual tonnes?
What percentage of grain is traded untraceable..I.e stock feed or container market?
How do they calculate world wide stocks, I can see how it's done in iron ore bit no idea how they do it for grain...
Obviously governments do not want high grain prices so food is cheap, so there is a conflict of interest when governments are reporting predicted tonnes?
I will go out in a limb here and say in the next 10 years we will see a dramatic price spike in grain like we have never seen, only a spike as one day the predicted will so far off the actual they will only be able to hold face for so long until panic sets in.
At present in Australia, milling wheat is around $270 AUS, in the UK it's a touch under $200 AUS.
Ant...