The markets have been lack luster. I am wondering if canola will get to $12 or higher. Lentils have been a dog. Even though the futures have gone up a lot on soybeans the locals still want to buy them at $10.50 when the futures were up to $10.75 US. We have not sold any flax and am hoping it will get to $13 or higher. I am curious if a lot of farms have a lot of grain on hand or if a lot of guys have moved most of their grain.

 

So far our best marketing strategy has been to avoid going into an elevator! We don't really have a strict strategy that we follow. We seldom presell either as am in a higher risk area also, frost the biggest one. Have seen many guys take a bath on a contract they couldn't fulfill, my pockets just aren't deep enough to handle something like that. Mostly grow barley, canola, and oats, but will throw some wheat into the mix next year, even though we never seem to do too well on it.

Sell canola right off the combine or as soon as we can after harvest. Just don't like the risk in storing it, always figure if a bin spoils, you lost any gains you would have made by storing it, for probably two crops. We are usually short on storage so that plays a factor also, and use the cash to take care of some bills and reduce the interest we would be paying if we held on to it, sometimes interest is overlooked and can quickly eat up your profits.

Barley is our big crop. Market it directly to hog barns and feed mills, easily pick up a buck or more some years over elevator prices. Sell some before winter if we have some piled on the ground, but then hold on for better prices. Spring and summer usually sees a rise in price. Hauling it ourselves helps a lot as we can deliver on short notice, and the buyer won't try to Jew you down when he sees you face to face, as opposed to a trucking company delivering a load then having them call you and want it cheaper because it wasn't what they wanted, something like the Maltsters do!

Oats used to be a good crop, until Richardson took over the majority of the Milling in Canada. Can Oats at Portage was great to deal with and always had a good premium over anywhere else, but now they won't even pay the freight over the elevator price to deliver to Portage. Looking to get moving it south, and see how that goes. Not even sure if we will grow any this year.


Seems any time we grow wheat, the crop sucks and we hardly have enough to bother with trying to shop around, so just sell whenever.

I imagine most guys have a better marketing plan than we do, but it seems to work alright, for the most part.

 

Dad does the marketing here as it gives him something to do. I spur him when i think it is time to move something. We go for malt barley and will contract a bit if price looks good, if not we grow anyway and bin and see what happens. If it goes malt later in the year when it was previously called feed then there is not much debating on how to market. If it is feed and price is low it sits in the bin.

Peas are sold when we think the price looks ok. Still have last years crop in the bin. They will keep another year but if price moves up during summer like usual then trucks will be loaded.

Flax is ready to go but elevator not taking delivery right now.

Yellow mustard we were waiting for 43 cents/lb this winter but never got there so will see what happens. Will likely sell a third this spring to get some movement.

All in all, small farmers without a lot of debt to service so it is more of a gut feel approach. If we are wrong we keep crop another year and see what happens. Bins can be paid off quite a bit if grain moves up $2/bu in a year vs taking the price at harvest.

Not much of value to add to the subject so dont post comments on the topic. Plus i haven't been able to accurately identify any trends. Someday i will need to delve into it more and see if i can find something to correct that.

 

depends on how much late season production risk as far as forward marketing which crops.... Canola, peas, mustard, winter (feed) wheat I am not scared to have up to 30%of average forward priced before harvest if that looks like the thing to do.


Lentils and durum can bite you pretty hard if you have contracts on the books and crop comes off in low grade condition. will do a bit of durum in early august to make sure I have some fall delivery slots.


Price is always important but no one has the ability to stare into the future and tell what the best price of the year will be. I judge my sales based on how well I did over a 3 month period not 18...... If I can sell at a profit and have cash flow lined up to cover expenses I am sometimes way better off than holding, hoping and handing over interest! Several times I have actually unknowingly topped the market by forcing myself to incrementally sell into rallies.


I keep a spreadsheet that starts the year out with average yields and average expenses. as the year goes along a account for the actual expenses spent of the crop and then after harvest the actual yield. gives a much better picture of break even pricing as the year progresses.

 

There's some thought China might retaliate to the steel tariff's by hitting the grain's. If that materializes there'll be a pretty significant correction.

Need another example of politics effecting farming?

We were about 80% forward contracted last year. Yeah they clang when I walk......or is that the marbles in my head...:22:

 

Well now, you just made me feel completely inadequate. If a farmer from an unpronouncable location in Greenland is gutsy enough to forward contract 80%, then my area must look like a sure crop area by comparison, and I should probably start forward contracting 120% every year. How are the crops looking up there this year? Will the frosted flakes make it?, what about the snow peas?, or the ice wine and the winter wheat?

Tariffs on US origin grains may be a positive for Canada, if we have the capacity to ship the grain, there should be additional business to pick up.

 

I know its hard but i avoid anything thats on a usda report, except for cattle and sheep. Last cereal i grew i marketed direct and got 40% above market price. I now sell everything direct to end user.

I do over 100K of sales through facebook groups.

Bulk commodities on the usda report is a joke, epsecially when we get the free trade marlet is the way to go and india shove tariffs on....

There will be alot of correcting to do in what people grow and the amount to match the changing market place - free trade is good...but we dont operate under free trade...we are told we do but we don't, far from it...and hence the issues.

Fair trade is more plausible but that will no operate like free trade...inter country agreements will be common...like Trump is doing - rebalancing with each country...China may impose counter tariffs to steel..So the russian weheat etc goes to china as they best buds atm...not a bad thing because then the current buyers of balck sea wheat got to go elsewhere...so will work itself out.

What we need is for the people who cant afford good food to be able to afford it, they are growing in population but not consuming...so these one line wonders who say we need to double food production by 2050?? well no...not really as the expansion in population is not linear to consumption.

Ant...

 

Good thread jvw!:smile:

I use forward selling in cases where I can lock in substantial profit and risks are low. One way to lower that risk is to have inputs pre-bought for the up-coming crop so you know your production costs. Around here one elevator is pushing futures-first contracts and that worked for a couple of years(on wheat in particular), but lately they don't seem to get to agressive on basis...I guess they have you so what can you do? I felt from the start this may have been a trap, just took them a couple years to set the trap! So for this reason(and others) I am looking at getting a hedge account going again and doing my own risk management that keeps me open on who I can haul to. Something we used to do but it takes time and capital to manage. Might be worth it again.

As far as specific crops go all my canola goes to Bunge. They have been great and the better dockage and delivery scheduling pays for my 4 hour round-trip haul. Last couple years I just sell when the price hits $12.

Oats: Sell to a processor that is good to work with and doesn't restrict what I can spray on the crop. Grew lots last year, less this coming year(better options).

Wheat: Always been a good money-maker here, often just as good as canola. Wheat responds well to high management. Often a good plan to seperate basis from pricing the actual futures as they never seem to both be good. Patience is key and pull the trigger when you see an opportunity. Take good samples and build trust with your buyer. There have been a few times when I basically sold the entire years production at once.

Peas: Second year grower here. No contract this year and my typical buyer does not seem interested. Could have $7 now but it is the best looking stuff you could imagine and grown from registered seed, so I am in waiting mode. Might put some back in the dirt as seed...

Soybeans: All seed production. Marketing is complicated there and differs by the company you grow for. Usually a good premium but comes with a bunch of extra work/cost.

Corn: Here is where it gets interesting! The corn market is mostly a cash market around here. I think that makes it a bin-it-store-it-sell-it crop. Obviously there is an elevated production risk on this crop but I feel there is a pretty large up-side on this crop, more than other cereals. As such, I am weighing whether to cut acres on wheat and grow more corn. Spending the money on the drying system to make this possible and a huge feed-mill going up locally which is great. So last I checked it cost about 28 cents to guarantee a $4.10 US december corn price, there is carry in the market right now although that is eroding. My gut tells me a guy should be watching to make a play on that as well as lock in the poor Canadian dollar and grow corn. I would like to get some opinions on that from the seasoned corn growers.

Like I mentioned currency is something that affects us in Canada a lot and I try to buy equipment from US when we have a good dollar(bought new semi trucks last time CDN dollar was above par). Wish I could lock in fuel prices at least a year ahead but bought big storage tanks to partly manage that, which has paid off easily in last few years.

Big thing is managing cycles, the markets are cyclical and more-so all the time. Don't think you missed the boat and make forced sales into a down market. Also don't get caught having to make a sale, best to work ahead if you know you have to make a sale(for whatever reason). Last minute things can go either way and judgement gets cloudy.

 

. Around here one elevator is pushing futures-first contracts and that worked for a couple of years(on wheat in particular), but lately they don't seem to get to agressive on basis...I guess they have you so what can you do? I felt from the start this may have been a trap, just took them a couple years to set the trap! So for this reason(and others) I am looking at getting a hedge account going again and doing my own risk management that keeps me open on who I can haul to. Something we used to do but it takes time and capital to manage. Might be worth it again.

.

I think the futures only work best if uptake in a given area is low, so they cant screw around with basis too much. that being said I like them better than basis only.... with futures you have locked in give or take 90% of the crops value and only are exposed to fluctuations on 10 %, we got absolutely pasted on Nexera canola several yrs ago bc the "premium" was just a good basis contract. price tanked close to delivery date and grain still had to go in. rolled it into an even worse market watched things get even worse. finally delivered about 2 weeks bf market rallied to avoid another roll. if no basis contract could have delivered earlier or later.......


I might have this wrong bc its been a few years, but it was once explained to me that if I had a hedgeing account I could sell wheat / canola futures and hold until close to delivery, and then shop around for best basis and then swap an elevator's buy futures. it think it was called an EFP contract.

 

Good thread. I don't believe in pre-selling unless I can get a good contract with an Act of God, just too much weather risk here. I am still sitting on all my 2017 spring wheat, and a little winter wheat, all hard red in this area. I just don't understand the lack of export demand for wheat at these levels, especially given how much corn is moving, the weather issues in South America, and the issues in the central plains. I don't think enough of a premium is built into the current pricing given the risk to crops this year. I also am not convinced that spring wheat plantings will be as high in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota as USDA is projecting, but I could be wrong on that as well. Do many of you use options with your sales to help keep upside open? I have been looking at it some, but between my lack of knowledge and confidence in the process, and the cost of exercising options, I am not sure anyone makes money other than the people who sell the options.

 

... I am not sure anyone makes money other than the people who sell the options.

Over 75% of options expire worthless. Yes the sellers are the ones who make the money.

Which is also why there are restrictions who is allowed to sell options.

 

I personally am a small farmer and will not contract what is not i a bin. I have plenty of small bins and most of my 2017 wheat got mixed with a bit of 2016 wheat is still binn'd and I'm sitting on my 2017 canola waiting for $12....... and waiting, and waiting....

 

I also am in a high risk area and depending on the year I will presell at least 50% of my expected gains, if the price is high enough. On some of my HR wheat last year I pre-sold almost 90% of projected yield but I figured I couldn't lose as the price was $8.50 (I missed the $9.00/bu contract by a couple days). That has paid off very well. If the price isn't great I might only presell 20-30% or none.

I am all sold out of canola now. I sold the majority at 11.50 and then the rest at 11.75. I thought about waiting for 12 but then my brain and years of bad experience told me, "how many times in your life have you sold canola for 11.50 or over and how often have you sold canola for under 10". It was kind of like when canola went to over$16 a few years ago, I pre-sold some but I heard of fellows waiting for 18...????

Malt barley, still waiting for delivery....go figure.

I look at marketing this way....farming is really one of the riskiest business's you can be in so I may as well have some marketing risk involved as well....as other have said, everybody's situation is different and depending on your cash flow etc...that will dictate how much risk a person takes.

 

Some years I have a HTA contract off the field. Depending where price is, I’ll contract 50-80%. Other years it’s cash at harvest. As I’ve gotten further into my farming career and built up funds I store more and wait until a production scare and market either cash or hta.

 

I like this thread.
What’s everyone think of a giant canola crop in western Canada? I’m putting what should be pea ground into canola because of the pea market issues.
Now I’m worried that there will be a large canola crop from everyone else doing taking some of thier pea acres and changing to canola.
But on the other hand now China is threatening to stop buying American soybeans we might se a big demand for canola to make some of that up? But then again American beans will tank and the rest of the world not in a trade war with them will scoop up the cheap beans leaving our canola out in the cold? I’m 30% sold on canola at a reasonable price for this area and I’m thinking about going higher which is not something we normally do this time of year but I’m thinking of stretching to 40-50%

 

this maybe sounds nuts but actually if worrying about china restricting soy imports, peas would be the better bet - soy goes into China primarily as a protein source not for the oil....... Not saying that will happen, but if you are planning acres on that issue in a vacuum, I am pretty sure that canola meal isn't a particularly good soy meal substitute, especially for pork.

 

All true but the overall fact remains, 2/3’s of the crop is sold in the bottom 1/3 of the market.

 

Then there should be some solid interest in this thread then, because there has already been some pretty good advice given. That's a stat nobody should be happy with and should be priority #1 on any farm IMO.

 

I think the best way to avoid being a bottom 1/3 marketer, is not be in a situation where cashflow dictates marketing decisions ( buying or selling). Easier said than done, I realize, but consider this:
Some marketers refer to the John Deere Low, when payments are due so farmers all have to sell. If payments on late modeled machinery are what puts many operations into a situation where cashflow dictates poor marketing timing, maybe the equipment helped them increase productivity 10% over old payed for equipment(doubtful), but it cost 20% of gross profit due to having to sell at the bottom to make the payment, wouldn't they be better off with poorer productivity and better profit? Completely hypothetical numbers of course, and many operations not only do justify new equipment, but also do it profitably, but I also know there are many for whom it is a viscous cycle.

 

This should be a good thread . Most talk on the forum is about equipment etc . I personally have been just selling at spot prices and not selling much of anything unless it is in the bin . We ( dad ,myself, and my brother) signed up on cargills market sense program to help understand some of the tools and plays that can be used to market grain . Puts , calls, and focal points are just some of the basic plays . We have learned a lot in the first six months but have by no means mastered anything . I feel it is going to take us a few yrs to really understand this stuff. Yes there is a fee to be on the program but we have easily gained that back already . I think the main reason for us going on the program is that it is hard to focus on this stuff ( ecspeacially if you don’t understand it. Having someone watching this stuff every day while we are farming is a plus . Selling into the future and planning out a farms revenue is going to be more important as time moves on . I don’t want to be left in the back of the pack !

 

I won't call myself a pro in marketing by any means but something that has always worked for me is forward selling enough to cover my cost of production. Bin space for me tends to be tight as I keep stuff for 2-3 years afterwards to get a price I'm happy with.
If you have a good relationship with your elevator and you forward sell your crop and can't fulfil it for harvest delivery the price is normally lower at harvest and another farmer will love to take your contract price over their cash price. I've only been burnt once in my life and that was with the fusarium scare and my durum.

I'm a small farmer though so I don't have to worry about cash flow as I work full time. But normally I like selling my input costs and sit on the rest until you get the high price you're looking for. Still sitting on some wheat canola and durum. I'll probably pull the trigger on canola if it gets to 12. Wheat I'll sell later in the spring.

I stick to my rotation, pushing rotation doesn't end well for me it seems, but lots of canola going in around my area this year,

 

Well my marketing plan basically is living large on the line of credit - no sales until that durum is $8 and canola/flax are over $12. That might take until May/June.

Typically I have found those two months to be the highest historical prices. Basically when the old crop is mostly gone and there is uncertainty about the new crop.

 

And then there are the unforseen, sideswiping market factors, 600T of aging stored green peas really help put that in perspective!

 

Here it is folks, avoid this! Afraid to sell into a high-priced market because the farmer doesn't want to pay the taxes and he/she rides it to the bottom. I don't know if that is your scenario Don but I have seen that scenario several times. Speaking with grain buyers it is actually very common. One has to be OK with paying some taxes, especially given the way gov't is managing things I would be surprised if taxes drop anytime soon. Green pea acres set to rise this year so might be a good time to unload those peas.

Another marketing strategy is to use target prices. Often a buyer will reach somewhat for a target that is in place instead of actually changing their basis or posting higher bids. This is where charts can come in handy(if the commodity is traded). Just look at the chart to see where there is areas of upside resistance where the market may top or falter and place your target there. Canola has been an excellent example of this for a couple of years now, goes to the $12(approx) and turns lower. Did briefly go higher last spring though.

 

https://www.amazon.ca/Technical-Analysis-Financial-Markets-Comprehensive/dp/0735200661/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1521252705&sr=8-1&keywords=technical+analysis+of+the+financial+markets a great start for technical analysis, super deal on it now too. It was the first technical analysis book I purchased and still look back to it sometimes.

https://www.amazon.ca/Trading-Zone-Confidence-Discipline-Attitude/dp/0735201447/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1521252895&sr=1-1&keywords=trading+in+the+zone This one covers the most overlooked but one of the most important parts of this game.

https://www.amazon.ca/Japanese-Candlestick-Charting-Techniques-Contemporary/dp/0735201811/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1521253025&sr=1-1&keywords=candlestick+steve+nison Much more difficult to get through than the others but an important tool to mix off with the others.

https://www.amazon.ca/Market-Wizards-Updated-Interviews-Traders/dp/1118273052/ref=pd_sim_14_7?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=P1FWCS6NCMW0F2X0PSBV Much easier read, more entertaining stories but some great lessons in there.

I have a pile of those types of books but those four are probably the best to start with.

Once one has read those books at least once get a free forex trading account to watch the patterns develop and finish. It takes a lot of hours but keeps one out of trouble.

 

Yes what SW says about the canola ......look at the charts . They are a good indicator of when to sell .....history repeats itself .

 

Had a fair amount of red lentils last year, and ended up selling them all just before Christmas when Viterra had a special on. Glad we did too, because prices have been at or below that special ever since, and I don't see them going up anytime soon, not even into next year[1]. We knew our unit cost of production and so we were satisfied with the price, even though 0.30/# would have been better! Still made money.

Currently we're in pretty good shape after a decent marketing year. Bins are mostly empty, and we have enough to cover the coming growing season. I really don't like carrying much into summer, as bin space is already tight and I get nervous as harvest approaches. In hindsight, we didn't do too badly on the prices. May not have hit the top, but certainly didn't hit the bottom.

In my mind, as long you are making a good profit after paying yourself, you can't ask for much more than that. As my dad says, sometimes a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. I'm always happy to unload my inventory so it's someone else's problem. The risk to storing unpriced grain is hard to quantify. Can't worry too much about theoretical profits you missed out on.

[1] Actually it's probably worse than that. Grain buyer told me the other day that there's still a huge amount of red lentils that have yet to be delivered, and there's virtually no movement on them right now. Apparently a lot of guys are starting to get a bit panicked as we head into the next season. Made me feel doubly good about our decision to sell and deliver it all back in November.

 

For the guys that use charts what charts do you look at or use? This has been a great topic. Hopefully people will continue to contribute to this thread.

 

I used to be one of those guys that sold only when it was in the bin, but have been moving more and more to preselling 20-30% before seeding then as crop progresses I will get up to 50-60% of an average yield if the crop is coming along well. The decision of what price to sell at is based on the cost per bushel I have for each crop on an average year and achieving a price better than that plus I only like to sell into the rallies as they seem to come along often enough. I personally find that forward contracting canola off the combine can work quite well if you can get a decent price, because there is usually no quality factor to affect grading, it provides extra bin space, cash flow, and it is often one of the riskier crops for storage. Crops like cwrs wheat I like to contract for later in the year usually Oct Nov time frame because if there are any quality concerns it seems to take the elevators a month or two to get a handle on things and right off the combine they seem to grade a little tougher or pay a little less for protein etc.

As for holding crop for a year or two, I try not to do that in general but I am prepared to do that with my red lentils, at the low price right now they are/were last time I looked they were in the bottom 20 or 30% of their price range. In a case like this I will hold until the price at least hits the midway point of price or I am forced to sell by some really bad circumstances. I cannot afford to do this with all my crops but anytime I see prices this low even if there is a solid reason like tariffs with no reprieve in sight, I like to hold because I would rather sell other crops with a reasonable price for cash flow, and if feel eventually the prices of the low commodity will come back to a more reasonable level.

I used to use the futures market for hedging but did not find that it worked real well, If the market moves against you the margin calls can be costly, and even though you don't lose the cash you still need to come up with it until you sell the physical product and close the contract, plus you still need to deal with basis levels, and in the case of something like hard red spring wheat on Minneapolis you need to deal with currency issues as well. So I found it just as easy to deal with forward cash contracts with buyers instead. I also have dealt with options and still do. I have seen the comment above that 70% of options expire worthless and the sellers are the only ones that make money, while that may be generally true, I see it as insurance, most people here carry insurance on their house, equipment etc. Insurance companies are the only ones that make money in that case as well but the fact is if something goes bad you are covered and are not in a dire financial situation. I see puts as a similar insurance, if I feel there is still upside to a market but I am not sure and I am happy with the current price a put can work very well in giving me the insurance on the downside but still giving me the upside that I kind of think might be there. ( I could wait for the upside and just do it in cash market, but I could be wrong and then lose the profit that I could currently price in so I will use a put in that situation).

Marketing is a big part of farming it is just that it is tough to do and all of the market consultants giving advice out there would be multi-millionaires if they were right because they could just play the market vs collecting a small fee from each of us. Every farm is different from cash flow needs/timing to storage availability, to risk. The sad part is even given that I know what my average cost per bushel is and even given that I have my inputs prebought and know what my costs per acre will be, the fact is that my cost per bushel varies dramatically given yield, and if the rain doesn't come my cost per bushel could be double or triple my average. so in typing all of this I just gave myself a headache trying to decide what to do next.

 

The purpose of selling futures (hedging) is to establish a fixed price for yourself for a specific future delivery date. Margin calls shouldn't be a problem[1] because if the market moves up, that means the price your grain gets has also moved up, covering your margin call and making up the difference when you buy back the futures. When hedging the market never really moves against you, because your goal is to set the price in advance, according to your own criteria. Basis is still a risk, but that can be managed using basis contracts. If a person sells futures without any sort of delivery contract, that's definitely speculation. Keeping grain in the bin unpriced for a year or two hoping for a rebound to some price point is also speculation. Might be based on many years of good experience, but it's still speculation.

Having said all that, we don't sell futures ourselves. We just use deferred delivery contracts to lock in a price at the elevators. Of course behind the scenes the grain elevator sells futures to hedge their position with our grain the moment you sign the contract.

Before Lee Melville out of Brooks retired, he offered week-long futures marketing courses for farmers, which were really interesting. He had also developed a futures simulation that was quite interesting. In the group I was with, the women participants handily beat the mean. I think most of us were either too aggressive or
too passive in our marketing.

[1] Quick edit here. Any good banker that understands farming and marketing should readily grant you a short-term, revolving line of credit to cover margin calls before the grain is actually sold. He will know the difference between hedging and speculating, and know that hedging will means his loan is guaranteed to be paid back.

 

Great thread with some great advice.
Here is a few things I've stuck to over the years that has helped me:

1) The biggest marketing factor for me is knowing my cost of production. This is and will always be the single most valuable piece of information for me when making marketing decisions. If you can't tell me your cost of production $/bu and/or $/mt then you have no idea what your margins are. I use a spreadsheet that is updated frequently with costs and projections. I try to make as many crop input purchases ahead of the next crop so that I can solidify my cost of production early. This way there are less factors that can affect my margin.

2) As a farmer I am in the business of SELLING my grain...........not STORING it. Having said that I will store grain if I can't make my desired margin. I have done the calculations many times on what the difference would be paying off a loan/crop input loan/equipment loan etc. and the interest I keep paying has always been more or the same as what I gained in storing the crop. It is a much better option in my opinion to store money in the bank as it is to store grain in a bin. I have enough bins for my entire crop plus a bit. Buying bins JUST to enable me to store a previous years crop hasn't worked for me but having said that there have been a few instances where it may have made sence.

3) Marketing information is another key piece of marketing. I use a couple marketing companies that I pay a yearly fee. Most if not all of these companies do a great job of collecting information and putting it in a reports that are concise. This way I don't need to spend 4 hours a day doing it myself fumbling through all the info. All of the reporting companies give suggestions and recomendations that I do look at but I don't use those as my plan, rather it is nice to compare with my own decisions to see if someone else agrees with them.

4) Charting - I am by no means a master of charting but charts do tell a lot of information that you can't get from any report. I like to look at the seasonal trends and also compare that days future value to that of the last 5 or 10 years. When a chart shows that the futures are in the top 5% of what they have ever been in the last 5 or 10 years, its a pretty good indicator to sell. I've attached a chart of Nov 2018 canola futures from today as an example. One is the last 6 months and one is the last 5 years. Each chart tells you something different.
Barchart.com has a lot of useful info with futures, options, and charting.

5) Forward contracting - Most years I am 25% sold before seeding and 50-75% sold by the time harvest hits. Malt barley is a big one for me. It seems in my area that if you didn't forward price by the time harvest rolls around the price is terrible and/or there isn't any room for delivery until way into the new year. Of course it all depends on the info above throughout the year.

This is just a few things I stick by that seems to work for me. Everyone is different.

Lots of great info on this thread, thanks to the OP for starting