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Oats

17K views 40 replies 21 participants last post by  sasksodbuster  
#1 ·
Where is this crop going? Dose it have more room to go up. Or is it going to fall flat? Where do you go to look at the trading price.
 
#2 ·
There are oat futures traded, but they are irrelevant. Oat prices rise and fall dependent on demand from the major processors. Where are oat prices going? good question. We have just come through some recent historically high oat values, sounds like more barley will be going in the ground this year, could mean less oat acres, could mean supported prices. On the other hand who knows processors are a fickle bunch of buyers.
 
#3 ·
Just saw an oat chart the other day.
I agree Chicago oats is a fairly dysfunctional market.
But the so called expert I listened to said by the looks of the oats chart the mills have already locked up enough product.
Funny thing is the local mill says they have lots of product but I hear from guys that they are pulling ddc contracts not due for a couple months ahead for delivery now.
 
#5 ·
I find oats to be frustrating market sometimes. Never grew any last year, but for the last 2 years before that, we were getting more for them as feed. The mills like to whine and cry when there is a shortage, but seem to be unwilling to pay up when they need them. Talked to a guy at General Mills a few years ago when the rail couldn't keep up with shipments, we had close to 100,000 bushels between us and a couple neighbors, but they were completely unwilling to work something out with us, they wanted to go through a broker or elevator which was paying under 3 bucks I believe. They seemed to be more interested in going to the media and crying about how they can't get product. Maybe if they tried to work with the farmers........
 
#6 ·
I can almost see the oat mill here from home.
I quit growing oats a many years back.
Too much hassle to deal with them, they can find someone else to play their games with.
There must be some demand for oats lately because the elevators around here have bids now at least somewhat competitive.
The last few years the elevators were at such a big discount it seemed like they hardly wanted to handle any oats unless they could get them as a complete gift.
 
#7 ·
Thought I heard somewhere oat stocks are at historical lows... but then I also hear from attending winter events that lots of guys are planning to grow oats that haven't for a while. Could be a flooded market. I wouldn't bet the farm on it. All our 2018 oats were sold early, and good thing because our usual buyer is all filled up.
 
#8 ·
A neighbor started a fee years ago filling sea cans with oats and sending it east, by passing the elevators and such. Was profitable for him then and I believe he still does it. Sometimes it's nice to bypass elevators and their games.
Think it was going to a pony oats market.
 
#9 ·
This is what I know,
1) we will have low carryover
2) both Viterra in Camrose and Canadian Oat west of Edmonton are pulling contracts ahead of schedule, some months ahead to get oats into their plants
3) supposedly one processor needs a sizeable volume to finish into summer before new crop.
4) new crop contracts are the best in AB they have been that I can remember
5) POGA has worked hard to increase market share in Mexico, record sales this year so far, part of that is the poor Australian crop
6) POGA is in the process to gain access to China, which if Australia has another poor oat crop, access to China could get fast tracked, this would be very good for oat market and price
7) the US mills are not proactive but reactive, they are not the bellwether they once were (in my opinion)
8) oats is becoming more and more popular in food ingredient world as a replacement for a number of other ingredients

I believe there will be more oats grown in AB specifically and probably prairie wide, I would have a good chunk of my production for new crop contracted. Oats on our farm will likely be one of the best returns, either behind canola or ahead. Key is to treat crop like a cash crop and one you need to get quality from, cannot be the last crop planted and thought about throughout the year.
 
#20 ·
Chop straw as much as possible with your set up. Heavy harrow after if your combine didn't do as good as it should. Where your market for oats is makes a huge difference with profit margins. I have an 84 mile round trip to deliver oats. That a lot of miles and fuel. Most crops I grow have that distance, unless it is feed that the pig barn is buying. They did buy some heavy oats last yr but minimal amounts.
 
#21 ·
I don't grow oats, although they are quite popular amongst the cowboys around here, and some grain farmers.
But, looking at the economics of it, I just can't see how they could compete.
I keep hearing how oats is so profitable because it yields 200+ bu/acre, so even at half the price of barley, it would still make lots of money.
According to AFSC Yield, across Alberta, Oats averaged 84 Bu/acre, barley averaged 66.
In my area, risk area 6(west of Red Deer ish), oats 80, barley 77
In risk area 7 (Red Deer ish), Oats 84, barley 84.

It was a very dry year, but previous years aren't that drastically different.

So, who is actually getting these spectacular yields, and where?
Can you keep oats standing at those yields?
 
#22 ·
Problem with those yields is oats unfortunately gets planted last or on poorer land, breakings, etc that brings that average down. We wouldn't be growing oats if it averaged 80 bu/ac.
Inputs are less, oats scavenge well for nutrients but you do still need to feed the crop. Few treat oats like a cash crop, if you do then yes they pay. 150-200 bu oats are quite common. Yes they stand well but can go down if nutrient management is unbalanced, disease, and nothing you can do about rain and wind sometimes. Newer varieties are getting better legs but Morgan still is sturdy. In our area barley does not yield as well as oats on solenetzic soils. Each area is different and so don't presume it will work as good as barley in your area. Typically wetter cooler areas will yield very well for oats.

Some economics to consider:
150 bu at $3.30/bu = $495/bu (contracts available with AOG for 2019 crop in AB)
Costs to grow oats $120-140 (crop ins, fert, certified seed, chem incl fungicide)
If re-use own seed costs would drop by 10-15$
Gross margin = $355-375
To get the same margin in canola you need to be growing 55+ bu for comparison

This is one crop I believe is only going to keep increasing worldwide, as rice/corn has become a major issue in countries like Mexico and China which diabetes is becoming a major concern along with heart health.
 
#23 ·
It not a big market yet, but the numbers on Hulless oats significantly better and not the same storage issues(IE 60lbs/b, lower oat yields). About $7/b(based on 34lb bus) cleaned. Also, the straw from this stuff worth a premium and seems to always sell - would not think of chopping even if less than $40/bale anyways. Chaff rows no issue with CX combine as can blow chaff right on top of straw windrow. Gluten free thing definitely a world wide deal.
 
#24 ·
Have been growing oats for years now used to have 1/3 of the farm in oats but not as much now . Last year was really dry in the eastern prarie and we got probably 80 bushel yield but have also gotten 200 bushels in certain spots of fields . All our straw is usually baled as long as the straw isn't too green ( a couple of years ago it was green so the baler wanted to leave it a bit to ripen and it started to rain and it didn't stop then the loss grew through the swath and we had some BIG smoke when we burned the swathes ) the baler has some nice large square balers and a neat picker which cleans up the field really quickly without any strings or ruts . I have made a really good flamethrower that uses a mix of gas and diesel fuel and can light a quarter in 20 minutes with five or six passes going at 40 kilometers ( just have to slow down for the ditches and rough stuff or you could loose the guy on the tailgate ) !
 
#25 ·
I have had good luck putting oats on land that is somewhat saline. A wheat crop will typically suffer more in such a situation but oats seem to do decently and it adds some organic matter back to the soil.

Local seed growers tell me that there is good demand for seed and I hear some guys switching wheat acres to oats for up-coming year.

No way I would burn valuable nutrients and organic matter, just chop it.

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Attachments

#30 ·
Some research has been done to calculate nutrient losses when burning straw. One thing it doesn't calculate is loss of organic matter that would eventually end up in the soil as the straw decomposes. A google search shows numerous studies.

https://www.topcropmanager.com/up-in-smoke-nutrient-loss-with-straw-burning-1114/

https://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/c...griculture/crops/crop-residue-burning-program/the-costs-of-stubble-burning.html

http://www.ipni.net/ppiweb/bcrops.nsf/$webindex/896A64C047EA4DE5852571B1006A5BF1/$file/06-3p10.pdf