The Combine Forum banner

The marketing thread...

11K views 54 replies 25 participants last post by  Alberta Pioneer  
#1 ·
Ok, to alleviate some of the slowness around here, what have you sold/delivered of old crop, and priced/contracted for new crop?

Personally:

Durum: Contracted all of it, delivered 10%.
Yellow peas: contracted and delivered 80%, average price about $7.25.
Red Lentils: sold all....for less then desirable price ;) but when they are feed..not much you can do.
Canary seed: nothing priced nothing sold.
Canola: Sold 90% so far, about 75% delivered. Not sure if I should keep the rest for summer or take the $13.20 now...:confused:

As for new crop, haven't done a thing. Or in the business world, "I'm speculating." ;)
 
#2 ·
Durum -all contracted, 8% delivered
Snowbird (Hard White Spring) -most priced FPC about $1 below the PROs.
Yellow Peas -Sold off the combine for around $6 avg (should have bought bins!)
Canola -RR sold off combine for around $10 so I wouldn't have to store it (should have bought bins!). Nexera, all sold, delivery March and May. Avg around $14.50 I guess.
Flax -1/2 sold for $15. March price @ $15.26 to Dunmore Pioneer.
Rye -all sold for $4.70 @ bin. 15% gone.


100T of peas sold for 7.02/bu for harvest delivery

Didn't do great this year, but at least I sold into a rising market! Isn't that what they always say???
 
#4 ·
Canola: 0% marketed
Flax: 0% marketed
Barley: All malt sold
Oats: 0% marketed
Wheat: 75% delivered, Have not priced my flex and basis contracts
Next year, still sitting on the fence, not sure what we will get in this spring. Never been this wet before. If I do hedge it will be on paper.
Is my marketing plan crazy or do I need a boot in the butt to start pulling the trigger on some of these prices?
 
#5 ·
Durum: all contracted - none delivered.
HRS: all contracted - none delivered.
Canola: 75% contracted - will deliver in July.
Potatoes: all rent recieved.

Will probably contract the rest of the canola within the next month and a half. As well will probably contract about 15% of 2011 canola soon.:D
 
G
#26 ·
Has any body else had trouble with moving there wheat????:confused: The elevators around me cant seem to get cars for wheat!:mad:
Same here -no cars.
same problem here! only hauled out 25% everytime they have room to haul we are building or fixing something.

as for crop sold
sold maybe about 25% of crop total
a bit of everything.
still sitting on most of our crop
havent sold any new crop yet.

i'm kinda nervous but we did it last year it worked out pretty good for us. and were still sitting on a little bit of oats from 2009:p.
maybe we pull the trigger soon cash in and maybe sell some new crop but I highly doubt it. old man got nerves of steel:eek:
 
#8 ·
Canola: 80% priced, 50% delivered $11.50 so far
Barley: 90% sold(got talked into board feed GDC)
Oats: Should have combined instead of making feed (but the cows like it)


Farmerboy and Sasksodbuster, you guys must have nerves of steel!:D
Did some new crop contracts for oats and canola. Also some Nov put options.
 
#35 ·
Canola: 80% priced, 50% delivered $11.50 so far
Barley: 90% sold(got talked into board feed GDC)
Oats: Should have combined instead of making feed (but the cows like it) View attachment 682

Farmerboy and Sasksodbuster, you guys must have nerves of steel!:D
Did some new crop contracts for oats and canola. Also some Nov put options.

Ya dad waits till the last minute to sell all of our grain we finally sent some samples to the elevator yesterday ex last year we go the 2700 bushel of barley hauled out and and it was full of barley the next day


i'm gonna wait till my canola comes up and book some of it and my peas well hopefully i get some seed will fined out monday


Chris are you growing Proven 9553?
 
#11 ·
Peas sold off the combine total loss got 5.50
Barley- sold 100 % =$3.50 cwb feed program in nov
Oats 90% sold =3.30 10% will market it soon
Wheat marketed 100% moved 75% pool so $7 ish
Canola marketed 25%@ 13.26 50% @ 13.66 march del 25% hoping for 14$

I said that when new crop gets to 12.50 I will book 15 bu/ ac ..... When it hit I said 13.... last time I called it is at 13.15 and still have not done anything I am very unsure about this wet wet spring and what it will bring but I do believe I am going to book in 80 tonne if it is still up around 13.15 . I just wish we could see what the spring will bring. but so does everyone else lol.
 
#12 ·
Do any of you guys that have oats think the price will hit $4.00 for good #2 oats? It seems like at the futures price has gone up the local price has done almost nothing. The best price we have been offered for good quality #2 oats is around $3.60.
 
#13 ·
75% HRS wheat delivered....50% fixed priced and the rest is left in the pool
75% canola sold and moved.
100% yellows peas sold right off the field way to early.

5% new crop canola locked in for sept/oct delivery
 
#14 ·
HRS 50% fixed at 7.4 rest in pool
Canola 55% sold
Corn 70% sold
sunflowers 2% sold as nobody will take them
Soybeans 50% sold
edible beans 100% crop insurance anyways.

I've gotten pretty lucky marketing so far. I just hope I get the rest sold before the bubble breaks, or atleast very soon after.
 
#15 ·
0% 2010 crop sold (not a lot to sell), still picking away at 2009 crop

75% of 09 canola delivered Dec, Jan...some priced, some basis and waiting.
75% of 09 flax, Sold in Jan
75% of 09 peas, just delivered over the past number of weeks.
 
#17 ·
Here's a question for some of you guys on here that know marketing.

I understand the old crop/new crop pricing, but honestly, how do they know/tell? What stops me from pulling into the elevator with a truck full of old crop and trying to pass it off as new crop? Is it a timing thing?

Bruce
 
#19 ·
So somebody could take a gamble, hold back old crop (say, previous year), and sell it when "new crop" was coming in? It makes sense to me, I just don't see why the distinguishment.

Bruce
 
#21 ·
;)

I guess it's all dependant on whether or not the risk is worth it. Have you ever held back a crop (say you wanted to sell it on cash basis) and contract it ahead for the next year, if I may ask? Or is that something that's too risky?

Bruce
 
#22 ·
I have done it with peas -not the whole crop but a couple of loads. I have held flax for 18 months. Guys who grow mustard are willing to hold longer than that.

And, the CWB "allows" me to do it on Durum many years! They let me hold onto it for a lower price, however. So kind of them to think of my income tax problems and help me out!!!
 
#23 ·
Yes Andy we have 250 acres slotted for sunflowers. Certianly not many. We used to grow a thousand every year but we have been cutting back. We just can't get good enough quality on confections any more. They need to be grown somewhere a little drier. I'm not sure if we are going to be planting confection or oils on the 250 acres. I think oils might be the way to go. Atleast they are easy to sell.
 
#27 ·
Here's how it goes at my place:
durum, hauled 20%, sold none, gave away 20% thus far,
Canola just sold 75%, hauled none yet, sittin on 25%
lentils, sittin on everything yet(may have missed the high)
chickpeas, takin up space in bin- should probably sell the lot(only 4 tri loads)
oats- not sure what I'm waiting for, but haven't sold any yet.
flax, misssed the boat on that one-forgot to put some in the drill last spring.
feed grain, still being fed to calves(that looks promising also)
Should move inventory into bank account soon, looks like a really good time to start unloading last years crop.
New crop canola looks good, can't see myself selling any though, I like to take my chances and hope that next year will be higher than current contracts.
 
#28 ·
Crop insurance too wet to seed-100% less deductible
Agristabilty - 0%
Agriinvest - 0%

New crop sold 15 bushels of High acid. A of G. My farm can't afford to sit around and do nothing. I envy you guys, I really do. Talked to a guy yesterday, he just finished selling 09 canola. I guess in a twisted way it gives me hope, I may get there someday, but this is one of those guys who complains all the time and you'd think he was going under. lol

I like my high acid price, but am concerned about getting it in the ground.

I must say to some of you. You are too rich if your sitting there with 13 dollar canola, and 3.50 oats unpriced. Greed will bite you, this market will surprise you. I don't want to e cynical, but what are you waiting for? 15? 18? If a guy can't make good money at these prices, why is so much grain left? Income tax fears? I am surprised, really surprised. I didn't realize this site was for the independently wealthy. ;) Then again, there are some talking about buying 2012 fertilizer. WOW!!!!!!!
 
#30 ·
I think it is important to remember that if you can afford to hold grain there is nothing wrong with holding it even if prices are very good as long as a person has an action plan (reasonable may be based on chart technicals, waiting for the price to top and retreat a certain percentage or other method). I firmly believe that just because you can make good money at a certain price that absolutely does not mean you should sell at that price, because most people that had an average crop could have made money at $9 $10 11 or $12 canola, does that mean they should have sold then?

Any time you are a price taker as we are as farmers we need to maximize our profit and to maximize profit not only does price need to be taken into account, but obviously payments, interest, taxes, etc. For example if you sell your crop early to take advantage special pricing on fertilizer for example maybe you save 10-30% on fert and it could be worth it to give up some upside in the grain market. My point is that we as farmers are all in different situations financially and all have different ideas as to what is going to happen so at the end of the day I think the goal of every farmer when it comes to marketing their crop is or maybe should be overall farm profit maximization subject to each person risk profile.

So I guess what I am getting at is that in your post stating that "You are too rich if your sitting there with 13 dollar canola, and 3.50 oats unpriced" this is possibly one reason that they were able to get so rich, but I do agree with the concept that some people are greedy waiting for the price to go higher, but I only think of those people as greedy when they are holding crop without an action plan as to what circumstances trigger that sale. I do not define it as greed if a farmer has an action plan but rather profit maximization which I think is necessary for the long term viability of any farm unless you are gifted everything from wealthy people.

Best wishes
 
#29 ·
Once a person takes a chance, and gets a little fortunate(lucky) with the markets, it starts to get easier to sit on some of this stuff. I used to think bins were expensive, now I realize bins can be quite cheap. Yes all the experts say to increment sell, but I usually don't listen to the experts, and cash in when I feel the time is right. Some times it works, and sometimes the pigs go to slaughter. I've won my share, but lost more than I care to admit, so my expert advice would have to be when it comes to the markets, don't listen to me.
 
#31 ·
I agree with you puddles. I'm always on the lookout to fool with guys, and tease guys. I am very glad for guys who have been fortunate enough to get into a great position, and happy for them. I just want a **** chance already to get a kick at the can!!!
 
#32 ·
Ya I hear you, ;ast year sold canola at 5$ all heated plus we dried it! So when I have the chance to take advantage of these prices I am selling. Lots of talk that they will go higher but like a lot of guy's selling 2010 crop to pay 2010 imputs!And my retailer wants money for what i booked for 2011! One thing I don't have to worry about is the tax man, but I hope to one day.
 
#33 ·
With anticipated acres going in the ground and an average yield of canola the carry out stocks of canola next year will be high enough to send prices down to approx. 8.50 a bushel going by history. Now of course the crop has to get in the ground and the yield has to be average for that to happen. Also US soybeans will possible hold up canola if they don't have an absolute bumper crop. What I think will happen next next year is canola will try to ride on soybean prices but slightly lower, big wide basis due to large crop, average price around $10 for the year. But lets not forget I don't have a crystal ball. Locking in $13 canola can't be a bad idea imo.